Gator

I don't know guys...you're arguing with accepted standards in reporting epidemiological data...I suspect that there's no agenda nor scare tactic, it's just the way it's always been done. Check out the Johns Hopkins COVID dashboard. You could argue that an odometer is lying to you because it reports cumulative mileage lol. But nobody is hiding anything. The data is all right there to be seen by everybody. IMHO, the most important numbers are daily ICU admissions, deaths, and the mortality/recovery ratio. Those three things provide you with all you need to know about what's going on right now, as well as the trajectory of this outbreak.

It puts a new spin on regimes that are less tolerant than ours. We call Cuomo the emperor, but in truth...did you see those videos of the armed guards in China forcibly locking people into their houses? Man, that wouldn't go over well here, would it? Or Italy, where you need papers to even be outside? I personally don't think that we need those kind of draconian measures. Flattening the curve is simply a way to ensure that our health care systems aren't overwhelmed. I agree with comments made by others that we are all likely to get this - better six months from now IMHO than the near future, but regardless. Low impact activities should still be okay. The other side of the coin is those folks who act like this isn't their problem. And maybe it isn't...but they are making themselves everybody else's problem.

Your neighbor is lucky. Most people who go on ventilators never come off of them. It's looking like we are going to have to reassess whether intubation is always appropriate. There's emerging data suggesting that it may, in come cases, cause more harm than good.

My Mom lives in West Winfield, south of Utica, middle of nowhere. Her husband hasn't gone anywhere for two weeks other than the local hardware store. The owner of the hardware store was diagnosed positive a couple days ago. What are the chances? I explained to my Mom that in fact, they were very good. Inevitable, almost. Rural areas are lagging behind urban areas, but they are subject to the same factors that affect spread of COVID in other communities. And once it shows up, it will grow either linearly or logarithmically depending on how well folks keep their distance. However, I suspect that boat launches are not much of a factor. It's more locals who think that they're protected by where they live and consider this to be a city disease. Wrong.

I totally get what you're saying, and I'm with you to some extent. It is a sure bet that the virus is more widespread among affected communities than the number of positive tests would indicate. That's because we're using a diagnostic test, which misses folks who have had it, and there's truly asymptomatic carriers. So, for example, NYC could have ridiculous numbers, as could New Orleans - but probably only since Mardi Gras - much like that town in Germany that you reference in your link, which was hit hard post-festival. This phenomenon is probably restricted to areas where the virus is known to have or could have feasibly spread. So, it's unlikely that Rochester saw massive COVID infections in December, for example. The other part of the equation that's a complete unknown is how long post-infection immunity lasts. Coronaviruses cause the common cold, and we all know that immunity is ephemeral for that. So, even folks who know they've recovered from COVID-19 shouldn't feel like they're bulletproof yet. The jury is still out on that one.

I'm unaware of this data, and in fact there's some indication in academic circles that this could be misinformation spread through social media. Do you happen to have a good reference? Unfortunately, if folks think that cough they had in December means they're immune to COVID-19, well...there's potential to cause a lot of harm. While I agree that we can't rigorously rule out some community transmission late last year, it is quite unlikely that it went undetected for that long in the general population. If there wasn't the potential for harm, I wouldn't argue, but this is a dangerous road to go down. I agree with some of what you've posted on this thread, but I can't get behind this particular theory. Sorry.

I don't get how launches are closed, but parks and open space remain open. Have you seen Mendon Ponds Park? Or the canal path? The amount of people who are going stir-crazy and out for "exercise" is unreal. I don't care if you put forty boats in at Honeoye or Conesus or even 200 boats at the Cat. You aren't coming anywhere near the number of people who are interacting in other venues. Risk, reward, Cuomo!! You said it yourself. Yeah, if you drive 200 miles to fish and lick every doorknob on the way here, then that's an issue. If you want to shutter movement, then go full lock-down. Stop making it okay for the dumb*sses. to ignore policy, while honest fishermen who are trying to do the right thing get penalized. Risk, reward. Nobody's crying here or minimizing the impact on NYers' lives. it's just common sense. There's got to be a ceiling to this escalation. Flattening the curve doesn't change the space under the curve. We all need to be prepared to get COVID at some point, it's inevitable now, like the flu. Okay, rant over.

The issue is that with a declared state of emergency, executive orders trump legal rights (pun intended). Here's the link: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/EXC/24 I'd be surprised if local enforcement targets lone fishermen in a boat, but it isn't beyond belief, particularly if you need to retrieve your vessel using a public launch. I'm guessing that most folks will decide to stay home; I will use my canoe and/or kayak to get out on the open water. If you are a lake shore property owner with a boat in the water, I'm not sure what they could do. Regardless, the whole thing is absurd, at least as applies to Western New York. Cuomo himself said it best: risk, reward. There's virtually no risk to boaters, mostly fishermen, in local waters this time of year of catching COVID, or passing it on. The rewards on the other hand are immeasurable, particular in this time of crisis with stress levels out of control. I suspect that this order has more to do with marinas beginning to open downstate. Truly a farce, and a loss for those of us who play by the rules.

We had an MFG tri hull on Keuka back in the 1970s that looked remarkably similar to this boat, with the exception that it was a dual console with full windshield. I also found a payment notice from the province of Ontario to "Bay Marine Limited" in 1981, which jives with MCF's conjecture. But absolutely no other information, and no details regarding the company. However, I also saw that BMH is the boat builder MIC for "Bay Marine Limited", which is located in Deltaville, VA and is listed as a boat manufacturer. Not much info there either.

Okay. I wonder if that means that the marina operations need to close, but public launches, which aren't staffed, can remain open? I don't think that they can close down a lake...it's akin to open public space. And frankly, in terms of social distancing, the interactions between fishermen on the water are a drop in the bucket.

Nightmares are now assured lol.

C'mon, Scotty!! It will be a trip. We can be the distance police and harass guys who aren't abiding.

OMG, yes!! I"m glad to see that somebody else realizes it's the illegal aliens here that have caused this mess. I don't know how they ended up in NY instead of Utah, but Men In Black got most of the story right, and NY's COVID problem can definitely be linked to aliens! Thank you for dragging this crucial link into the light of day. For too long, the public has believed that we could actually track COVID and that we know why it spreads so quickly. But those stories about the idiots who ignore social distancing guidelines and infect everyone around them because they're asymptomatic carriers is obviously propaganda. We know that it's the abductions. Thank you for educating us.

I'm pissed off at the Chinese government for suppressing this when it was first identified, but I'm also pissed off at the American government for downplaying its severity and at the American public for ignoring the guidance of health efforts that could have minimized the impact. There's blame enough to go around - or maybe I'm just a curmudgeon.

Now that's some funny stuff! Great tension breaker - got to laugh these days or you'll cry. Keep on keepin' on.

I've got a great idea. Let's all spread big gobs of hate around, and throw in some intolerance. Maybe a bit of holier-than-thou, some judgmental bigotry, and a side-show of rancor. I am so tired of the BS that I see all over the internet, and I so don't want to see it here. I don't care what your politics are...can we quit squabbling and work together to support one another? Just for a little while? Or is it more important to play the blame game? Most of the guys on here are good folk who I respect greatly. So why do I feel sick at the though of politicizing the current heartbreak? Sorry for the rant. I read something that pushed a button.

I think that I may have been misunderstood. Being a Prof. of Medicine and running a biomedical research lab, I am fully aware that transmission might occur in the absence of symptoms. I will point out, however, that the articles you've referenced have not undergone peer review, but are instead posted on a preprint server, MedRxiv. Hence, you should use caution when extrapolating from their conclusions. Regardless, that aside, my intention was to convey first, that if you have symptoms, you shouldn't leave your house, period, and second, that fishing alone is unlikely to result in viral transmission, unless you're a fish - and let's hope we never get there. Certainly there is less risk in fishing than in shopping at your favorite grocery store. Particularly if you are COVID positive, but asymptomatic. But thank you for the reminder that we all need to be clear so as not to add to the confusion. My apologies.

I recognize that it's possible folks who get into trouble on the lake could endanger first responders, but the same is true sitting at home. If you're asymptomatic, IMHO the chances of passing on the virus while fishing (or otherwise enjoying our great outdoors) is very, very minimal. Just don't go holding a "sandbar party" in your boat - stupid, stupid people. That's why all the marinas and launches in Florida were shut down. In that sense, we're lucky that we are the only idiots who'd want to be on the water in this weather.

Rough water and 20 degrees on Lady O is different from rough water and 80 degrees in the Keys. You guys (in the non-gender sense, no offense to your daughter) are hard-core. Big change from last week though, I bet. Go get 'em!

Just to be clear, the defer thing means that they are pausing payments, and once they resume you will stay on schedule. You will not owe all three payments at once. You will owe three extra payments after the original terms of your loan are satisfied. It's tacked onto the back end. You will not owe penalties or late fees. Whether interest accrues during the deferral period is up to the lender. Generally, you will accrue interest on your remaining principle during that time, with the exception of student loans via federal mandate. As for fishing, I just received a notice from Maine that they're making fishing open to all through April 30th, so that's a suggestion that it's okay. I actually heard one of our top officials talking about getting out hiking and fishing, so long as you maintain social distancing. And you know, people have to get to the store for groceries and gas and other necessities, so there's still going to be folks out and about. The important thing is to stay calm and use your noggin. Once I get my daily dose of Zoom conferences and emergency edicts, I will be out in the woods with a chainsaw or in the kayak with a rod.