Morgan-E

This Friday at 11AM the kings are scheduled to be delivered to the pens at Turtle Cove and Bayside Marina. Anyone able to come and help out would be greatly appreciated. If you can arrive a bit early 10:30-10:45 they get there early with the delivery sometimes. Usually everything goes smoothly, but some trouble shooting is needed some years. It is a great experience as fishermen to be a part of anyway and gets the blood flowing when thinking about what these little guys will turn into. Thank you in advance. Phil

If anyone is available we will be having a work day this Saturday at 1PM on the northern property of Bayside Marina to put a new net on one of the pens and secure the other nets on the other two pens. A pair of pliers with snips, boots, and gloves are recommended but not required. We will be having our FHFA meeting at the conclusion of the work where all are welcome. The pens will be docked at Turtle Cove and Bayside Marina again this year. Please be sure to thank Scott and Brian for their continued support. Also the DEC purchased this new net and two new feeders for this year and an additional net for next year for us. It may be raining so dress warm. Turtle Cove restaurant is open from Thursday through Sunday for dinner through close if anyone is looking for a bite to eat after. Thanks in advance.

This is just for thought and I do not claim to know for sure or have access to data to fully support or refute what is written below. It will take a little bit of time to read and digest. Something to chew on. Also note that the DEC biologists have read this and are looking at data relative to the thoughts below - thank you to them. The Scientific Answer / Cause of Reduced Chinook Size in Lake Ontario? Background: A recent study was concluded and published by the University of Helsinki and published in Sustainability News, “Salmon are Shrinking and it Shows in Their Genes” on November 14, 2018. This study was conducted on Atlantic salmon using 40 years of genetic material and concluded that the “gene version that tells salmon to mature at a later age and thus grow bigger is becoming less common, while the version that urges them to hurry up and get on with it is getting more prevalent.” Two alleles have been identified and the one that urges the salmon to mature earlier has become overwhelmingly dominant in the population while the allele that has been dominant in the past has become increasingly scarce. The theory behind the age and size shift is “that the salmon today are more likely to die during their time at sea either because of fishing or other reasons, and would thus benefit from returning to the rivers to spawn sooner rather then later”. Genetic Ties: Many times other factors are thought to influence the size of fish and may in fact do so over a very short period of time such as temperature, hormones determined by photo period, food availability, illness, competition, and others. However, in Lake Ontario there has been a noticeable decline in size using the derbies and individual observations over the past three decades. It was probably occurring prior to this but there were still enough large fish to make it unnoticeable. If it is indeed linked to genetics as it has been shown to be in Atlantic salmon it is an evolutionary change and not an environmental phenomena, meaning it is here long term and would take a shift in the allele (gene version) frequency to shift the trend. Lake Ontario Trends: The Lake Ontario salmon have been getting smaller over the decades but not due to bait fish availability. If it was tied to baitfish availability the fish would resemble the emaciated salmon of Huron and Michigan, but the “plumpness” of the salmon has remained relatively constant since it was first used as an indicator of fish health. This has remained the same while the overall size of the average fish has declined in the lake and the upper size expectancy has continued to decline. In the 1980’s people would expect to catch salmon in the upper 30’s and hope to catch one over 40lbs. This declined to expecting to catch fish over 30 and hoping to catch one in the upper 30’s in the 90’s. This has continued to decline to the present day where people expect to catch salmon in the lower 20’s and are hopeful to get one around the 30lb mark. At the hatchery the age structure of the fish has also shifted over the years and the average size has shifted down but not by as much as shown in the creel census, angler observations, and the lake-wide derbies. The explanation for this may be due to the constant fishing pressure on the Salmon River since the inception of the fishery. This will be discussed further in the artificial selection and adaptive value of the smaller / earlier maturing allele phenotype. On the Canadian side they have also seen a shift in the salmon size, but it has been a slower decline than on the U.S. side, but seems to have caught up to, or shows no real significant difference in reported observations. This may be tied to the lower tributary fishing pressure their fish have experienced when compared to the Salmon River. Again, this will be discussed later. In more recent history there have been greater highs and lows in the fishery that would suggest a single year determination in terms of year class rather than a subtle shift if multiple year classes were available to compensate for a single age class failure. Selecting agents giving adaptive value to maturing earlier rather than later: Lake-wide angling pressure will select against the salmon that are in the system longer by giving anglers an extra year or two to catch and remove the fish prior to spawning. Early in the fishery anglers knew that fish of like size tended to school together so they would leave the “smaller 20lb fish” in search of schools of larger fish. Any fish in the 80’s and early 90’s under 20lbs was considered small. However, these small fish that were not targeted or in many cases released in pursuit of larger salmon to fill the creel limit were the two year old fish. In the first decades of the fishery the larger fish were genetically selected against and the smaller fish were genetically selected for, increasing the frequency of the smaller, early maturing salmon. This was and is true for the entire lake regardless of where the salmon was spawned and or stocked. Tributary angling pressure has always selected for the largest of the salmon on the U.S. side. Early in the fishery to the present the largest most visible salmon have had a skewed amount of fishing pressure when compared to the less visible and less desired smaller salmon. Again, the largest are targeted because it is human nature to want the largest fish to fill the creel limit for a number of reasons. This greatly reduces the percentage of the 4 and 3 year olds successfully spawning by natural means or making it into the hatchery system. Within the hatchery there is a much smaller percentage of large fish compared to the number in the lake and that enter the mouth of the Salmon River. This may also be an explanation of why anglers accuse the DEC of spawning only the “small” fish (that is mostly what has and continues to be available within the spawn house). The slower fall in size on the Canadian side may be due to less pressure to no pressure on the tributaries compared to the U.S. side. The Canadian fish are still exposed to the same lake pressures which have had them decline in size and age structure, but without the tributary pressure the allele shift has taken longer and they have not had the extreme shift in fishing quality until recent years that the U.S. side has experienced. The natural wandering (around 10% from natal waters) would also allow the influx of the early maturing allele into waters where the late to mature fish may have otherwise maintained a genetically isolated population (namely in the clean tributaries of Canada where there has been reports of natural reproduction occurring for quite some time). Chinook compared to Atlantic salmon: Atlantic salmon may have actually taken longer to get to the point where the salmon are maturing early compared to the Chinooks. Since Atlantics spawn multiple times and can live up to seven years on average the “older” alleles should persist longer when compared to a fish that spawns only once. An Atlantic that manages to have good behavior and high fitness that happens to mature at a later time could spawn multiple times with fish that may have spawned for the first time at age two. This would allow the alleles to persist in a higher frequency than those of chinooks where the fish dies after spawning and has only a two, three, or four year old spawning allele. The shorter life cycle of the chinook compared to the Atlantic salmon makes it a better candidate for evolution than the slightly longer lived and slower to mature Atlantic salmon. Those species with shorter life cycles and higher reproductive potential are able to evolve more quickly to changes in the environment or selecting agents. Additionally the fishing pressure on the lake is far more concentrated for the entire life of the chinook in the lake system compared to the open ocean environment of the Atlantic salmon. This is based on the simple size of the area available to forage and disperse and with the new technologies and information sharing on the internet of fish location within the lake system. If the fishing pressure of the modern day has indeed influenced the genetic shift of the Atlantic salmon, then the chinook salmon should respond in a similar and more rapid shift due to the more acute fishing pressure experienced. Chinook compared to coho salmon: Coho salmon spawn at age two consistently. The size of the coho has not varied much from their introduction to Lake Ontario on a decade to decade average basis. A big coho in the 80’s was in the teens and today a big coho is still in the teens with the average mature fish being in the upper single digits to lower double digits. The very large infrequent coho of the past may have been undocumented hybrids. Some very large verified hybrids are still being taken out of the lake on occasion. Coho have not had the heavy selecting pressures placed on them that the chinook have been exposed to. They are seldom targeted in the lake (mostly an incidental catch) and are overlooked in the river when swimming amongst chinooks. This may be why there has not been any “need” to change as a species. Chinook compared to brown trout: Brown trout have remained relatively consistent over the decades with expected above and below averages in numbers and size. The brood stock has not changed in decades and that has lead to survivability issues and genetic health related problems, but those are not associated with human pressures on the lake or tributaries. The browns that successfully spawn may have changed behaviors as well due to fishing pressure in the lake and especially in the tributaries. This may be why tributary anglers are not seeing the brown trout that they have in the past (they too have changed their behavior and regardless of regulations or stocking numbers they may not return to the tributaries the way they did in the past in number or duration). Fishing success on the lake is tied to weather conditions more than anything in the Spring. The number of brown trout is highly influenced by predation at stocking, health of the trout including their size at stocking, and in some parts of the state poaching of brown trout in small tributaries has been reported. Chinook of today compared to the chinook of the past: The chinooks of Lake Ontario have already been identified as likely being a new subspecies through evolution of the species in terms of behavior compared to the original population from which they came. The fish do not stage as they did back in the 70’s through the mid 90’s in front of the river mouth. Instead their behavior is so erratic that they cannot fit any known models used to predict salmon migrations and staging behavior. Once in the tributaries they no longer spend a lot of time pool hopping as they used to, but instead swim to the hatchery or upper parts of the river and its tributaries in quick fashion. The chinooks used to be in the rivers in high numbers around Labor Day weekend, but these fish would have been exposed to higher and longer fishing pressure while waiting for optimal spawning temperatures a month away (their alleles have too been likely removed). Instead there is a massive run that occurs later in September and closer to the time of which they are able to successfully spawn. In the lake, the salmon move in and out of Mexico Bay and have staged in water as deep as six hundred feet in recent years off of Oswego which was unheard of or unknown of in the past. The chinooks are spawning at an earlier / smaller size than they did in the past only by percentage. It is likely that there were some that did in the beginning, but no one noticed or cared because they made up such a small percent of the total population. It is also likely that some behaved as erratically as those of today, but again they represented a very small percent of the population. In both of these instances their relatives that behaved in a traditional and known way were exposed to far greater pressure and had a greater likelihood of being removed prior to spawning. What does age two chinooks mean to the future of the fishery: Smaller fish similar to what we have been catching over the past two years will become the new normal. There is no reason for the chinooks to be selected to go back to the larger, older size class in any large percentage without artificial selection at the hatchery, a trophy class limit on anglers, reduced pressure on the tributaries of spawning fish, or new genetics being introduced from their ocean cousins. Greater uncertainty of the fishery from year to year will occur because the majority of the fish available and targeted as mature salmon will be represented by a single year class. If the lake trout population goes up so does the predation of the salmon stocked or that are wildly produced and the number of available salmon will decrease. Also, natural spawn becomes that much more important as the stocking numbers at the hatchery have decreased. If there is a poor natural reproduction year class the fishing will be directly tied to it. This makes the net pen projects that much more vital to the long term success and stability of the fishery. The predatory biomass of the chinook may be represented by smaller fish that are removed from the system a year or two prior to the past. This may require the alteration of the models used to project alewife consumption and sustainable stocking target numbers for these fish. A “cushion” fishery may need to be developed or developed further in the event of a year or two of poor survivability of the chinooks to sustain the economic fishery for the businesses that depend on the Lake fishery. This may be increased brown trout stocking, new strains of brown trout to offer true trophy size fish, increased coho stocking once the study concludes concerning which size class is most successful, or some other out of the box thinking to address this real situation. This may partially explain the very low success of the fishing in 2014 to 2015 and the very high success in 2017 and 2018. With the shift to primarily two year old chinooks the low fishing followed a higher lake trout population. With the lower salmon fishing conditions the focus of many anglers shifted to lake trout and their numbers fell. This lowered the predation of chinooks and with high natural spawn the exceptional fisheries of the past two seasons occurred. In conclusion: The study on Atlantic salmon may reveal an answer to a lot of the trends in the Lake Ontario fishery concerning the chinook salmon over the past three decades. It may also show where the fishery is heading. If there is a follow-up study to this on the lake or if data that has been collected at the hatchery and through the creel census supports this occurring in Lake Ontario, work will need to be done to correct many of the models used today that were developed around the “old” chinook. In addition a re-education of the anglers and the expectations of the angling community may need to occur. There may be numbers of large salmon from time to time, but it may be linked to less than ideal conditions not allowing the salmon to mature at age two as they would if they were healthy. The greatest indicator of the overall health of the salmon may continue to be the plumpness of the 36” fish rather than the overall average size of the fish as the genetics may not allow for this to increase again. More attention will have to be given to each year class of fish since there will not be a noticeable buffer class to make up for a failed year class as there has been in the past. For Review; Phil Lucason

Werner Stenger "Popeye Charters" out of Fair Haven is also scheduled to do a seminar (not sure if it will be on brown trout or salmon or both). Sent from my Pixel 2 using Lake Ontario United mobile app

Pm's sent Second has my number Thanks Phil Sent from my Pixel 2 using Lake Ontario United mobile app

They are penned up for another 3 weeks. A handful got out before we figured out that the gate was wedged open by a half an inch by a knot in a rope before we fixed it. They look great!!!

Just a reminder that the salmon will be arriving tomorrow at 11:00AM ish. They do not anticipate being there too early and will likely be there right at 11. With that said; anyone who can get there around 10:30AM in the event that they are early would be great. They may in fact be a little late (they are loading other trucks that will be heading further west before they load our truck). Thanks again to Bayside and Turtle Cove for their continued support.

June 23rd - Larry is securing our veterans. More information to come. It should be the usual routine except a change to the parade and the addition of a meet and greet / thank you opportunity at the pavilion in the village.

Pen update. The pens are all in good shape and ready to be splashed. Thank you to everyone who made it. We had about a dozen people on deck and it made things go quickly. The tarps under the pens made a huge difference this season with very few weeds around. Despite the annual cold temps (could be 70 the day before or after, but never on our pen work day it seems) the holes were zip tied (half of them broke despite being rated for -40 degrees). Also, our professional welder and jack of all trades with some competent help was able to fix a broken axle and replace a couple of broken tires in quick fashion. We had our annual Spring meeting immediately following and discussed the pen projects themselves, hatchery news, and the Wounded Warrior Weekend in June. The fish are scheduled to arrive on Thursday the 12th at 11AM but they usually come a bit earlier. As soon as there is any updates they will be posted - otherwise see those who can make it there.

We will be having our net pen workday on April 7th at 8:30AM. We need to give them a once over to zip tie any holes and get them out of the mud and hopefully in front of the docks that they will be set by. From years past this should take roughly an hour and a half. We will be getting around 47,500 kings and 6,000 steelhead. We may have an opportunity to fix one of the axles as well. Bring gloves, hand warmers, boots, and wire cutters for the zip ties. The fish should arrive on the morning of the 12th (presently scheduled for 11:00AM but they usually come a bit earlier) as long as the water temperature is close enough to the hatchery temperature. A more current update will be made next week. The net pens are located on the north lot of Bayside, behind the large blue storage yard. Thanks and see those who can make it there. Phil - on behalf of the FHFA