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Lucky13

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Everything posted by Lucky13

  1. The Charter Captains watch the bait on $1000 depth finders; the Scientists use long established transects at multiple locations around the lake, and they also get data on age and condition of the bait. The principle behind the transect method is that you get a representative sampling of what is out there, and you are pooling a large amount of sampling. When the transects were producing much larger numbers 20+ yeas ago, there was a lot more bait out there. I have not heard " there is too much bait" in a long time, please quote the scientist(s) who said that. To use your method you would have to get consensus on who those top 5 captains are, good luck with that! Leave it up to VP and Songin, they will increase stocking and the alewife very well may collapse, and then you can kiss the king goodbye, no bait, no salmon. If you want to dump the science, we should do as Andy Todd from OMNRF suggested a few years back at a Rochester SOL meeting, just dump a bunch of fish in the lake and see what gets caught, and if you end up with a bunch 10 lb cookie cutters, so be it, but lets not spend all this money on monitoring that everyone is just going to second guess anyway, especially based on some little graph screens and a few stomach samples. The Objectives say TROPHY king, not a box full of teeners. Maybe those guys catch a lot of fish (but then didn't everyone this year, except of course the Canadians?) but even Vince is not all science.
  2. Thank you Long Line and Shore lunch for saving me a lot of typing. Who appointed these “ ambassadors of the Lake”, Trump? What degrees in Fisheries Science do they possess? I have a lot of respect for Jerry and know that he studies all this in detail, but I’m going with past SOL meetings and Annual Reports, not scuttlebutt from the docks ( especially if it didn’t come from Jerry!). And no fish come from anywhere else now due to the problems with diseases everywhere, even if excess eggs were available. As others have pointed out, it is the bait that is the issue, and what I’ve seen and heard about the bait data is that last year is not overwhelmingly good, just moderately acceptable. So if you want to gamble with your fishery, now‘s the time.
  3. Please detail and provide documentation for this assertion. Also, since west coast strains of Pacific salmon are in general specific to one river system, don't they all "interbreed"? "natural reproduction of salmon is almost non existent from the Genesee to the west compared to 20 plus years ago." Again, please provide some documentation that there has ever been natural reproduction of Salmon on the south shore of the Lake. NYSDEC has maintained for as long as I remember that the only significant source of natural fish on the US side of the lake is the Salmon River. Please indicate where you get your information.
  4. Vest or no vest. at least a few on here must question your sanity!
  5. WOW, that boat is big enough to have a floor and both guys are wearing PFD's. Bravo!!!!
  6. Aside from the difficulty in sampling for "shakers," it is my recollection that NYSD EC indicated that the first year of LO life for a King involves eating bugs, they do not start chowing on alewife until the second season. If one year olds could find YOY alewife, they could eat them, but Brian Weidel of USGS explained at the SOL a couple of years ago that a given year’s alewife hatch did not show until late summer and they grew through the larval stage pretty quickly. I think DEC gets this "shaker" data from the jack survey.
  7. That's exactly what they did two years ago, the spring trawls showed a gap where at larger sizes, two year classes of alewife were missing, so they cut stocking by 20%. This year's spring trawls are inconclusive, so no decision been made yet. Algorithms are great, but there is a principal in science whereby the significance of a number is determined by the indeterminate errors associated with the measurements taken to get the number Because there are relatively large indeterminate errors associated with activities undertaken on large spatial scales, like trawling, you are going to get numbers like 2.1 billion, not 2,165,412,347 from these efforts. A lot of what some see as real differences are just "noise" The more numbers like this that go into an algorithm, the less useful the result will be. As Gambler points out, just two variables may correlate beautifully for a while and then contradict for long enough to make the relationship suspect, or at least more complicated, than just the two factors alone suggest.
  8. Message about the Genny? Nice fish!
  9. You may want to consider fishing Seneca Lake from the pier at Watkins Glen. No Pacific Salmon, but Lakers and Atlantics may be around. If you want more to do than fishing, I still suggest Rochester.
  10. My sense is that Gambler spoke with someone on the GLFC LO Committee Citizen's panel. Lets just say the 2017 hatch was not as dismal as the two year hole, but not everyone on the panel is as enthusiastic as some west end Charter Operators. OMNRF and NYSDEC will likely be having public meetings to discuss these numbers, and possibly other data, coming up soon. I want to see the analysis of age and condition done at the Altmar hatchery on returning fish. I can't believe that fish that are finding plenty of bait are hitting anything that moves in front of them, as they seem to be doing this year. It also sounds like a lot of the fish caught in most of the US lake are mid teeners. Are these robust 2 year olds, or are they scrawny 3 year olds? Certainly, Steve LaPan’s 40 pound eating machines are not hitting their full potential for growth. Hindsight being closer to 20-20 now, I’m glad we have guys like Steve who were willing to take all the heat (a lot of it from the west end operators) to stave off a bigger collapse, and I hope the data says they did enough with the earlier cuts.
  11. On the Canadian side of the lake, not so much!
  12. NYSDEC has been stocking 'eyes in 4 or 5 year groupings, as they do in other places like Redfield Reservoir. There used to be a great run up the Creek in early April, but they may have been pounded by the same guys who think it is OK to snag Steelhead. While I don't chase the walleyes myself, I know a couple of guys who do with good success, but they would stop talking to me if I revealed the secrets they have given me, LOL! Suffice it to say, all the info above is good, just remember that oxygen levels drop off rapidly in the thermocline in the summer, and adjust your depth accordingly. Here's what Matt Sanderson of NYSDEC Region 8 said: http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/fish_marine_pdf/ibaycreel.pdf DEC stocked again in 2017 according to the (not so easy to use) stocking database
  13. Isn't this the same story that has been told in fair detail on two other posts?
  14. If they leave it up and don't have adequate storage for runoff the following spring, we'll hear everyone complaining about the high water then. What would you do if the system was totally uncontrolled?
  15. They are extremely popular up in the Adirondacks, too. The 44 is likely the best smelt imitation going, maybe along with the mooselook, landlocks love them!
  16. The reports down here is that she agrees with the lakefront property owners that the 2017 high water was caused by Plan 2014, not the all time highest rainfall for March and April combined with high water from the upper lakes, combined with flooding in Montreal and the Ottawa freshet, combined with the low discharge rate in January and February caused by lack of Ice cover on the St Lawrence, which is what all the scientists have indicated would have caused the high water regardless of what controls were in place. Should be "real fun" watching yet another disfunctional Federal initiative unfold!
  17. http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/fish_marine_pdf/pfrgeneseriv.pdf
  18. Charlotte pier on the west side, and Summerville Pier on the east side, of the Genesee River mouth at Rochester should both be providing salmon opportunities by mid September. Best fishing is usually at night using glow in the dark spoons or floating egg sacks, but early AM and late PM can also be good. Nearby, Webster Park pier and the piers at the mouth of Irondequoit Bay can produce salmon, but are better known for browns, and, depending on weather and temperatures, may not have turned on yet. If we get a cols snap, the fish could be up to the falls on the Genny, with opportunities for river fishing with single hook point lures in Fire Tiger, or skein eggs generally hot. Wading is not necessary, or recommended, in the Genesee.
  19. And creates more room for storage of spring runoff.
  20. You sure they didn't close due to electromagnetic waves? Here's the " Official" report on water level. A lot of Marinas are starting to understand floating docks. Of course, when the upper lakes are low, and there is a full blown drought, lots of boats will be high and dry unless the marina's get to dredging, too. http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/DailyLevelsEnglish.pdf
  21. Sorry Todd, not saying your boat isn't lower in the water, I was reacting to the silver fox's all knowing pronouncement of how easy it should be to let water go when ever he wants it gone, regardless of whether Montreal is 5.5 feet underwater. They ARE letting more water go to stay on target, and because they CAN, now. This is not the case in the winter if they don't have ice, or it is already flooding in the Lower St Lawrence. " I guess they can adjust the flowrate that they said they were not allowed to do last year" is the mumbo jumbo, not the science that explains why they can and can't take certain actions at certain times.
  22. If you were to take the time to read the information on discharge protocols on the IJC web page, you might understand the different seasonal limitations on releases, and especially the need for ice cover(not there in winter 2017) to maximize releases during the winter, also the impact of the Ottawa River spring flood and flooding in Montreal and also along the St Lawrence, and we should not forget the record rains of winter-spring 2017, all of which have been reported to cause the 2017 high water, and none of which continued into 2018. You can likely put your hard hat away, the sky is not falling this year (although many of you were crying that in spring 2018). A quick look at the high and low level prior to the creation of the Seaway might even make you realize how much worse things could be as seasonal highs and lows were uncontrolled back then, and it could go as high as the fluke year, 2017, and lower than you've seen it lately without the control. SOME places, like downtown Pulaski, and Perinton, NY, got heavy rains, some places only miles away got next to nothing. The level of the Lake is reported as 0.10 foot higher than long term average for August, so they are back to "normal."
  23. I'm going to remind some of you that you gave me a rasher last spring when I was critical of three guys in an open aluminum 14 or 15 foot length boat running out of the Genny and down to the bay, no life jackets on in the pix. The big word then was watch the weather, and don't go out when it is predicted to be snotty, and you are fine. I'm reading that the forecast was 1-3 footers and then calming down, but the Big O changes VERY quickly, and the weatherman is not known for great accuracy. Maybe a fifteen foot whaler that would float after being cut in half is fine and safe in a big blow or when hit by rogue waves, open aluminum maybe a little less so. Part of why I don’t go out anymore is the queezy feeling that comes from sitting in a 19 foot Starcraft 3 miles out and seeing wave tops above me in every direction on a day that was supposed to stay 1 to 3. And it was 1 to 3 up until about 10 minutes before we pulled that day.
  24. When I was still going out on the Lake, we would often catch 'bows right in the prop wash while setting cheaters. Same thing up in the 'daks with Atlantics. Try just enough weight it to get the spoon to swim, and not to far back either.
  25. Andy Todd of OMNRF reported a run of about 250 matures in the third week of July in the Generaska. There have been strong runs in the Salmon River before Labor day in past years. I just came back from a week on the Tug hill, and spoke with a captain I know in Richland. He said they are getting a lot of dark empty fish mixed in with silvers. The tributaries were running clear except in the bottom of deeper holes. Last Tuesday's rain was very localized, and had no effect on the river above 81 from what I saw going up last Wednesday and coming back yesterday. The rain Friday night likely had more of an effect on SR flows than the flash floods of Pulaski on Tuesday.
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