Upwelling Impact on Salmon

[Apparition]

I am going to be in Olcott Fri, Sat, Sun.  The surface temp map shows an upwelling from Niagara past Olcott with surface temps in the mid to high 40's.  As this is within the preference of kings....is this an attractant?

 

How should I fish that condition? If it is still present in 3 days.

 

Thanks for help understanding!  I actually sampled the hypolimnion in Lake Erie for years, but Ontario and salmon are completely new to me.

 

 

[Gill-T]

?? No upwelling that I can see… you should be fine. Also, I generally don’t sample the hypolimnion as I find the epilimnion better tasting 😀
 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Gill-T

[Apparition]

Interesting!

[Apparition]

In lake Erie wany people referred to the marine forecast as the "I don't NOAA". 

 

I have not seen two sets of data from the same place this different.  Gills was from a day before mine.  I will see if I can find one from the same day.

[Apparition]

I have not been able to access the GLERL website to check for the 5/30 map.

[GAMBLER]

Our intake temp at work is sitting at 47 degrees right now.  It was 56 degrees Saturday before the NE wind.  Not a full upwelling but temps cooled inside.  

[Apparition]

So it did cool down?  Does the cooler water bring in kings?  Do you look for temperature breaks?  How do you adapt to that situation?

 

[GAMBLER]

15 minutes ago, Apparition said:

So it did cool down?  Does the cooler water bring in kings?  Do you look for temperature breaks?  How do you adapt to that situation?

 

Lots of factors involved.  Time of year, How bad it upwelled, ect.  Cool downs sometimes fish will be in the same area sometimes they move offshore.  A full upwelling, head offshore.  

[Apparition]

Thank you!  Sounds like we try what we can and hope to fail our way to success.

 

Here is a screen shot from 5/30.  Same day as Gill's.  Why the difference?  Both NOAA.  How do I know which is correct from 200 miles away?

[Sk8man]

Still going to have to find the best data available: find the bait, and hopefully fish near it and fish the marks.....much more reliable than "guesstimates"

[whaler1]

Olcott today was low to mid 60’s surface

[Apparition]

Thanks guys.  Just wishing I could develope a better game plan based on the info available.  You have a lot more experience than I have with salmon.  It is hard to gain years of experience quickly.

 

Thanks for the advice!

[whaler1]

Lots of fish around. You’ll get em. 

[HB2]

That looks like the plume of the Niagara river to me 

[HB2]

This pic confirms what I thought was happening  for years from spring till the thermocline sets up . 

 

That plume disapates the farther east it gets and peters out around devils nose at the farthest west . 

 

Do you want to know why the spring king fishery is so good west ? Look at that picture . 

[Apparition]

It does not seem that the Niagara plume is the whole story though.  

 

I still wonder why the two sources from NOAA look different.

[GAMBLER]

Its more than likely not the Niagara plume.  We had NE winds last weekend.  NE winds = upwelling.  Upwelling in more pronounced when water temps and densities are further apart.  Right now the lake temps is not that warm.  In August when the water is in the 70's, it doesn't take much to have an upwelling event.  

[Apparition]

Makes sense.  Not much difference in density so easy to move and mix.  

 

So do you guess the fish are on the cold side or at the temperature break?

 

 

[schreckstoff]

Apparition, I think the differences in the maps may be because GillTs map is based on satellite observations and the map you were showing is the results of the FVCOM model, for surface temperature. The Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model uses bathymetry, wind, and air temperature observations data and a bunch of

equations to make predictions, whereas I think satellites are using direct infrared observations, which have trouble with clouds and are only surface temps. I’m out. Of my depths on this stuff but the NOAA sites and google have much better explanations. The FVCOM approach is  state of the art and it’s super cool that GLERL has it up and running. For my research we use it a lot in the spring to figure out when and where we might dodge the ice to start sampling as early as possible in Chaumont Bay.

[Apparition]

When I was sampling Lake Erie, I did not have a reason to watch surface temps that closely so I have not looked into it.

 

I would think direct reading (where cloud cover is not an issue) would be better than a model every time.  Models by definition try to predict observations.

 

I worked with some modelers for Erie.  Their goal was to predict upwelling events so water intakes could be ready for the change in water quality.  It worked somewhat, but Erie has a wind driven circulation that often causes the thermocline to be shaped like a bowl sitting in the lake.  While I was sampling they could not account for that added complexity.

[Gill-T]

Different things come to mind here. As suggested, two different methodologies in determining temps by the two maps. I believe GLERL defines surface temps from readings at the 30’ down level which you are comparing to the infrared map. Any NE wind on Erie can push the warm surface water away from Buffalo at the head of the Niagara, causing cooler water to be pulled into the river. Also, the down current in most of Niagara County waters is out of the NE sliding under the warm Niagara flow. We always have easy to reach cool waters even during the peak summer months. 

[HB2]

Looks pretty dark blue as it comes out of the Niagara to me . And disapates as  the prevailing west to east current carries it down.  

[GAMBLER]

54 minutes ago, HB2 said:

Looks pretty dark blue as it comes out of the Niagara to me . And disapates as  the prevailing west to east current carries it down.  

It could have been possible if Lake Erie was colder than Lake Ontario.  Without the temp map of Erie from the days prior, we don’t know.  

[LongLine]

On 6/1/2023 at 12:44 PM, Apparition said:

It does not seem that the Niagara plume is the whole story though.  

 

I still wonder why the two sources from NOAA look different.

If you look at all 5 of these graphs you'll see they are for specific Longitudinal lines and 1 latitude (which is E-W in the middle of the lake.)  The temp midway between the longitudes can be slightly different. 

 

True Upwellings are unstable water.  Although some fish are caught there, I've always had better luck to the outside of them where the water is much more stable.  i.e. as Brian said "head offshore."

[Apparition]

Thanks guys!  Fishing more stable conditions makes sense.

 

The more water you can take off your plan makes a smaller area to focus on.

 

Hope this conversation helps someone else someday also.