Worried about lake levels !

[Fishmaster196]

Every time I go to lake Erie and walk the shoreline there is more and more beach. I have never seen it so low. I am worried if we don't get some snow pack this winter or some serious rain we are going to have some trouble launching at some of the launch sites. I am sure all of the lakes are Experiencing it at some level. I don't know if they let out to much water this fall on the St Lawrence or what's going on were definitely in a drought any other thoughts.

[rolmops]

 

The water level in Lake Erie has very little if anything to do with how much water they let out into the St Lawrence. It has to do with how much water comes down from the upper lakes. It takes a long time for water to travel from Lake Superior to Lake Erie. So even if there is a very heavy snow pack in the North this year it will take a long time to reach lake Erie. More than a year.

In this case, however, climate change is our friend. The lakes are still quite warm for the time of year and lake effect snow promises to be quite substantial because of it. Also because the upper lakes will take longer to get a serious amount of ice cover, which would limit lake effect snow.

Already we saw that there are lake snow connections that are coming in from the northern lakes and dump very substantial amounts of water from above in and around both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This dramatically shortens the travel time that the water would normally take to reach the lower lakes and it increases the overall amount.

Anyway there is little to nothing we can do about this in the short run.

 

Edited December 10 by rolmops

[Bozeman Bob]

Lake effect snow does not add any water to the lakes , if anything it draws water from the lakes , dumps it on land , then most ,not all , of it returns to either Erie or Ontario . Depending on which way the wind is taking the snow ,or rain . There is only so much water on earth,  including what's in our bodies . It's all one big cycle,  just like a terrarium . We die ,get buried , any moisture left in us ends up in the ground ,then it works it way back to the surface , then up into the atmosphere, then back to the earth as precipitation.  Sea levels will not rise if the ice caps melt , The ice itself displace's water , when it melts that ice space is replaced by water .

[MCF]

Frozen lakes cut evaporation even in the cold and overcast of winter.    There have been drought like conditions in much of the country.   The Mississippi River has been at record lows with barges getting stuck for the past year or so.  All that impacts moisture available to get to the lakes.  

[rolmops]

2 hours ago, Bozeman Bob said:

Lake effect snow does not add any water to the lakes , if anything it draws water from the lakes , dumps it on land , then most ,not all , of it returns to either Erie or Ontario . Depending on which way the wind is taking the snow ,or rain . There is only so much water on earth,  including what's in our bodies . It's all one big cycle,  just like a terrarium . We die ,get buried , any moisture left in us ends up in the ground ,then it works it way back to the surface , then up into the atmosphere, then back to the earth as precipitation.  Sea levels will not rise if the ice caps melt , The ice itself displace's water , when it melts that ice space is replaced by water .

You are right and wrong at the same time. The lake effect snow that is created by Lake Erie and Lake Ontario does not change anything. That is where you are right. The Lake effect snow created by Lake Huron that travels through the air toward Erie and Ontario does  make a difference.

As for your second argument. That is true for the submerged ice and not for the ice that is above the surface of the water, like the visible parts of icebergs and of course all the ice that is on top of dry land masses like Iceland Greenland and Ant-Artica So yes, sea levels will rise.

Edited December 11 by rolmops

[GAMBLER]

1 minute ago, rolmops said:

You are right and wrong at the same time. The lake effect snow that is created by Lake Erie and Lake Ontario does not change anything. That is where you are right. The Lake effect snow created by Lake Huron that travels through the air toward Erie and Ontario does  make a difference.

As for your second argument. That is true for the submerged ice and not for the ice that is above the surface of the water, like the visible parts of icebergs and of course all the ice that is on top of dry land masses like Iceland Greenland and Ant-Artica

And the Erie snow that makes it to the Lake Ontario drainage helps lake Ontario with Lake Erie moisture.  

[Bozeman Bob]

3 hours ago, GAMBLER said:

And the Erie snow that makes it to the Lake Ontario drainage helps lake Ontario with Lake Erie moisture.  

And the Ontario snow that pounds the Tug hill area AND continues East ,does not all make it back to Ontario,  so the argument is moot . And if Erie didn't have any lake effect moisture , there would be more water flowing into Ontario.  The upper 4 lakes water levels are always changing, Mother Nature .  Ontario's water level is controlled or messed up by a few humans ,depending on how you look at it . 

[Bozeman Bob]

3 hours ago, rolmops said:

You are right and wrong at the same time. The lake effect snow that is created by Lake Erie and Lake Ontario does not change anything. That is where you are right. The Lake effect snow created by Lake Huron that travels through the air toward Erie and Ontario does  make a difference.

     If that lake effect snow didn't happen , guess what , the water still ends up in Erie ,then O . 

As for your second argument. That is true for the submerged ice and not for the ice that is above the surface of the water, like the visible parts of icebergs and of course all the ice that is on top of dry land masses like Iceland Greenland and Ant-Artica So yes, sea levels will rise.

  Ice is freshwater and will slightly displace salt water , 3% or less , which would negate frozen water displacing less when it thaws . How much of the ice evaporates before it completely melts , which puts it into the rainwater cycle, not into the Ocean . Earth has withstood platonic plate shifts , volcanoes that covered the earth for years ,floods , ice age ,continental shifts and on and on . We're a pimple on her ass , so no the world isn't ending , because Mother Earth is constantly changing to begin with ,we're just along for a short ride . 

 

[BassCraz'ah]

Lake ontario seems lower then I've ever seen. Horrible for fish trying to spawn... Horrible for pier casting... Etc 

[LongLine]

Erie gets the majority of its water from the Detroit River.  That flow depends upon Huron's level which is enhanced by lake effect snow off Michigan.  Lake effect snow off Huron will affect Erie's level somewhat as it will land in the North Erie basin & eventually melt & flow to Erie. It expedites, somewhat the water transport to Erie.  The drainage basins for both Erie & Ontario extend much farther north than south.  For both, the basins only extend a couple/few miles south of their south shores.  Water outside the basins to the south flows south.  None of the storms/snow they've been getting in PA, southern NY or NYC will affect Ontario level at all.

 

Ontario's level is greatly influenced by what happens in the Ottawa River Basin, which doesn't really get lake effect snow from the lakes. The Ottawa Basin goes way way north and is huge.  (When the Ottawa level is very high, the flow out the St Lawrance is reduced to protect Montreal. They also reduce flow in anticipation of high precipitation in that area.) 

 

For the week ending 13 Dec, the outflow of the St Lawrence is set to 6,690 m/s which is very close to the low limit of 6,560m/s.  Come late April/May it's not unusual to see outflow in the high 8,000 even 9,000 range.

[Gill-T]

Could be regional issues from heavy West winds we have been having causing seiches (esp Erie).