Weekend NOAA Forecast Discussion this AM

[UpGrady]

Heads up for anyone with their boat in the water, esp. with canvas tops and East of Rochester... forecast is going to be very interesting for Sunday and Monday.

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED

NOTICEABLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM

THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE

WEEKEND...WHICH RESULTS IN BOTH MODELS BRINGING PRECIP IN MUCH

FASTER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLAMMING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH

1.0-1.5" OF QPF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE IN

THE FORM OF A HEAVY WET SNOW GIVEN CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND

SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS. THIS SCENARIO IS THE RESULT OF MUCH

EARLIER PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE

GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND IS A SOLUTION THAT IS AT

ODDS WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY AND THE SLOWER AND STILL MORE-EASTERLY

SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/AND CANADIAN GEM...WHICH DO NOT PHASE

ENERGY FROM THE TWO STREAMS AS QUICKLY...AND ARE MORE FAVORED BY

HPC.

CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS AT THIS

POINT...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF CONTINUITY

AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUE WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER/LOWER QPF

SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH POPS WILL STILL BE

HIGH /LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL/ FOR SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL ALSO BE

HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...AND WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THE

UPCOMING EVENT IN THE HWO AT THE MOMENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

IMPRESSIVE EAST COAST STORM WILL BE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY. SURFACE LOW WILL BE 3-4

STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW WITH A VERY STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT...

AT AN IMPRESSIVE 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THE WESTERN NY

AREA HOWEVER WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THIS MONSTER WHICH

APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE ENSEMBLE DATASETS THUS FAR. THERE

IS SOME CONCERN OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BUF

FORECAST AREA...SAY EAST OF KROC AND PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE

ONTARIO. HOWEVER ITS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN

AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW HITS A WALL DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE

AND STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY

WEAKENING AND HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY

FLOW WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH

PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

[fishshack]

I read this weather report on another site. Who says NY has crappy weather?

A major spring Nor'easter with the capability of causing damage equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane may develop Sunday off the U.S. East Coast. A storm system currently crossing the Pacific coast near British Columbia is expected to dive southeastward across the U.S., possibly triggering a significant severe weather outbreak over Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas on Friday. The storm will emerge into the Atlantic on Sunday near the Virginia Coast and rapidly intensify. By Monday morning, the GFS model is forecasting a 975 mb low pressure system just off the New Jersey coast, with 50-60 mph easterly winds over Long Island Sound and the waters just south of Long Island. The 00Z UKMET model forecasts an even more intense system, similar in strength to a Category 1 hurricane. However, of great concern is the fact that most of the models forecast a very slow moving system that will weaken only gradually, battering the coast for at least three days. This will allow a long period of time for the tropical-storm force winds over the water to pile up high storm surges in Long Island Sound and along the entire Northeast coast from New Jersey to Maine. Combine this with the arrival of one of the highest tides of the year Monday night--the Spring Tide, which occurs at the time of the new moon in April--and we have the potential for a very serious flooding event. If the worst case scenarios of the models come true, the Tax Day Storm of 2007 could cause extensive moderate to severe coastal flooding, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. The areas at highest risk appear to be New Jersey, New York (especially New York City), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Heavy snow is not expected along the coast, but heavy rains may cause flooding problems. As usual, there is considerable uncertainty about the exact track and intensity of the storm, and we'll have a better idea Friday what might be in store for New England. However, I believe there is a greater than 50% chance that this Nor'easter will be strong enough to cause significant storm surge flooding along the New England coast. Damages of at least $100 million are likely.

[Billy V]

Man, we can't catch a break. I just put my boat in last night, but after I fish tomorrow, I'm gonna pull it back out, re-winterize, and drop the canvas to brace for this mess.

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