Preliminary Risk assestment - Asian Carp

[LongLine]

Here's the preliminary risk assestment from US Army Corps of Engineers on ways the Asian Carp can get into the Great lakes. There are ways they could get into Lk Erie without going thru Lks Michigan or Huron.

http://glmris.anl.gov/documents/docs/Ot ... s_Risk.pdf

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[Has Been]

Some more great news. I wonder why the Army Corp is dragging their feet and after thinking about this news ,and the cofirmation fo the Allegany, I have my reasons as to why. They feel it is inevitable this will happen or already has & they don't want to spend big money on closing the gate after the horse allready got out of the barn. My guess as to when someone will see one in the Great Lakes or tribs is around the 4th of July this year.

[LongLine]

In order to understand the USACofEng risk assessment, we have to remember how the Asian Carp got out of their original ponds. I.E. floods – The Miss. River overflowed its banks and established direct water pathways. Flood waters eventually went down & some pathways disappeared, however some carp took the pathway while it existed. When the original permits were issued, to allow the Carp into those farmer ponds, the USF&WS and state DNRs did not sufficiently consider the possibility of flood conditions.

Focus Area #1 involves those areas that have already established direct permanent pathways such as the Chicago Canal, Calumet river, (sp) etc and we all know what’s going on there. Michigan has the only direct pathways.

Focus area #2 involves identifying those areas where a flood or high water could establish a pathway between the Mississippi Basin and the Great Lakes Basin. The USACofEng has come up with a system of rating the risk for potential routes that carp could take and cause damage to areas. (Transfer Risk)

They first looked at the topography and basically said what creeks/ rivers/ lakes feed one another, are really close together; have manmade connections that might be dry right now (such as culverts, ditches, etc) and also looked at flow and back flow conditions.

Secondly, they looked at what damage the carp and other invasives (ANS = aquatic nuisance species) could do to a new area over a 50 yr period if there was a direct pathway. (IMO -This is the “somewhat subjective†part.)

Thirdly, they took a statistical look at historical weather records and flood conditions to understand if the rivers/creeks/lakes ever had a pathway or could have a pathway; how long that pathway could exist; and how much of a pathway could exist.(I.E. depth, width etc) They take a 1.0% probably stance. I.E. if one flood event every 100 years could possibly create a significant surface water pathway that carp could use for migration. For instance – IMO- if a pathway is created every 100 years that is only ½†deep and lasts for 3 hours, it’s really not worth mentioning, however if it’s 3 ft deep and lasts for a week, it’s very important.

What they found was that the original 9 potential routes grew to 36 potential routes. 18 routes have been assigned Medium, High or Acute Transfer Risk ratings. 13 were rated low risk with the remainder not rated.

The greatest area of concern is Eagle Marsh in Ft Wayne, which is why Indiana put up that fence real quick. Long Lake, which could connect the Ohio River & Lk Erie is also given a high Transfer Risk. East Mud Lake in NY was given a medium Transfer Risk as there may be a potential link Lake Erie. (To get to Lake Ontario, they have to come thru Lake Erie)

Bottom Line recommendation is that for 17 of the 18 routes, more study, evaluation and continued collaboration with local DNRs, gov’ts and stakeholders be conducted to identify measures to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. IE figure out what can be done to lower the risk.

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[jimski2]

East Mud lake off of the Hanover Road in Forestville could flow into both the Mississippi River System as well as into the Silver Creek Watershed into Lake Erie, especially during high rainfall, snow melt events. They are right.

[Stinky Finger]

Was this woman speaking Chinese or did my ears just flutter???

I believe she said "Asian carp already in Lake Erie"...

Pay attention from 00:55 to 1:01

[fish or swim]

Yes there have been Asian Carp found in Lake Erie. Very low numbers, sometimes in commercial fishing nets. Sometimes Asian people buy them and release them as a ritual for good luck. (I had a tough time typing that one without...) It is thought the numbers are far too low for a breeding population.

Here is some recent news about tests at the Maumee River headwaters area.

"Indiana DNR, no Asian carp eDNA found in Eagle Marsh"

INDIANA- The largest sampling to date of Indiana waterways for environmental DNA (eDNA) evidence of Asian carp yielded negative results on either side of Eagle Marsh near Fort Wayne, University of Notre Dame researchers have reported.

To read the complete news release, please click on the following link: http://www.asiancarp.org/

Let's hope the media does not forget about this until something is done.

[Has Been]

Is this a confirmed presence or just hearsay? All it takes is a couple & if they have been found in commecial nets, there is probably more than we think. We can do all the risk assesments we want but who knows WHAT will or HAS introduced them.Hard to defense every single senario, just ask the TSA. A matter of time IMO.

[LongLine]

USF&WS confirmed a couple big heads years ago in Lake Erie but said they were probably releases from food stores/pet shops/owners. Subsequent elecroshocking efforts in tribs produced nothing in 2008. They were however found in the Ohio River but they couldn't catch further specimens.

http://www.fws.gov/northeast/lowergreat ... rpMon.html

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[fish or swim]

I don't think it is a rumor.

The Asian Carp site has something about it. It has been in reports in other places as well with the odd find in more recent years. The biologists believe the numbers are too low to be a threat.

http://www.asiancarp.org/faq.asp#11

if the link doesn't work try a search at asiancarp.org or google

• Have Asian carp been found in Lake Erie? Back to top

Five Bighead carp have been individually collected between 1995 and 2003 in western Lake Erie. Since 2004, the Fish and Wildlife Service has monitored western Lake Erie in Sandusky and Toledo, Ohio using trammel nets in response to these discoveries. This surveillance sampling has not resulted in any additional collections of bighead or silver carp. These sampling efforts do not suggest a reproducing population exists in Lake Erie, however, additional sampling is needed to provide a more accurate conclusion about their presence or abundance in Lake Erie.

Documentation of the five Bighead carp collected can be found in the Risk Assessment for Asian Carps in Canada (2004) and the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database