Upwelling coming

[UpGrady]

Buoy is showing NE at 15 gusting to 20 this AM, looks to keep blowing thru the night... just in time for the weekend. The swimmers aren't going to like this one!

[Pike Hunter]

Upgrady:

Given the upwelling notice, does this mean fishing this evening is not a good option?

Been busy regrouping my fishing strategies.

Ordered depth raider and found someone to install it next week.

Bought two wire rods and need to buy reels to hold up to 1,000' of stainless steel wire to go with each reels.

This weekend, I will be picking up my kids from camping at Old Forge and I hope to get out on Sunday a.m. with or without the little rug rats.

Tight lines

Anthony

[J.D.]

Deep water temp. off Rochester at 6 AM was 54 degrees.......... at 11 AM it was 72 degrees........ :shock: :shock:

[UpGrady]

The lake is rolling pretty good out of the NE and will continue into the night so I would not bother tonight... Friday will be clearing out, but probably a stiff NNW wind behind the front. The weekend looks nice, although I'm sure that Sat AM will still be a bit bumpy with a confused 2-4' sea from the NW, N and NE which should settle during the day. Sunday should be real nice. The question will be how much cold water actually comes up and whether or not it makes it all the way to surface and shoreline... then you'll have fog to deal with all weekend hovering over the cold surface water near shore.

[TOP SECRET]

According to the most recent wave forecast... one foot or less friday night through sunday...

If the lake does flip, plan on heading offshore tomorrow. Keep heading north until the water temp begins to rise (it will most likely fall for the first mile or three, then begin increasing again). Where the water temp increases fish, keep moving out until you find water with fish. I've had my absolute hands down best days after the lake flips. Also, keep ALL your lures high... above 50ft (unless your ff says different).

Things are setting up to where Friday and Saturday should be stellar. However, two days after a flip I've had trouble finding fish as the water begins to stabilize... so Sunday might be tough.

Let's all hope for a flip

Nick

[TOP SECRET]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=45012&meas=wtmp&uom=E

Water temp is still holding...

[borderline 350]

Dear Bob's Boy in Pa,

Let me try to explain what is important about UpGrady's water temp. statement. The cold core of L.O. (39F) exists year around on the bottom of LO. The biggest core pool is NW of Oswego @ midlake. The NDBC buoy is roughly on the west end of this core pool (20 miles NE of Rochester) and displays SURFACE TEMP! The warm water on the surface of LO is on the move today because of the 17 Knot NE wind. When the surface water starts moving, the cold water on the bottom starts moving with it. Being 39 F, this water "upwells when approaching shore". The angle of the wind, speed and duration determines these cold water upwellings and how far inshore the cold water will come. I have seen 39 F water off Braddocks in 40' of water after a 24 hour blow. 10' down!!! 39 F. Also causes huge fog banks on the shoreline!! Their are several books published with data going back to the early 1940's (for use by Air And Sea Rescue personell) both here in the US and Canada. Knowing the currents, their direction and movements will make you a better fishermen too!.....Sincerely, Jet Boat Bill

[TOP SECRET]

Bill... understood... but the link I posted is the buoy off Rochester ... so far the water temp closer to shore is holding steady (aka the cold water hasn't moved in much, at least not surface temp). Maybe I should be looking at the deep water temp though... but normally, when I've seen the lake flip, the surface temp drastically drops and causes the fog banks to form (also some real nasty rip currents... great time for surface steelies as well)

Nick

[J.D.]

bobs_boy,

Here's the link for deep water temp. off Rochester. "THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF ROCHESTER IS...".... the temp. probe is approx. one mile off shore in 35-40 feet of water. The temp. at the probe was 54 degrees this morning, the weather buoy off shore was recording 3.6 ft. waves so me and my little 17 footer went back to bed........

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl?file=forecasts/marine/near_shore/lo/loz043.txt

[LongLine]

If you go to this site and either click on the time scale or run the animation, you can see the extent of the predicted upwelling areas.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glc ... pe=F&hr=03

Go to the nowcast pull down, click on lake Ontario surface temps and then click on time scales and you can see how quickly the Big-O changes.

Good Luck guys, I gotta freeking work again. :x

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[UpGrady]

The warm surface water generally begins sliding out in the direction the wind is blowing from, as a result the cold water essentially "rises" in the water column, eventually replacing the warm water which disappears, hence the wild currents.

Generally this coincides with a frontal boundary and moisture/rain in a 70 degree air mass, coupled with 45-50 degree surface water, creating the fog banks near shore... the further offshore into the warmer surface water you get, the more the fog will dissipate. Can just be a long run getting there at times...

This wind has been blowing pretty hard for 18 hours now, so more than enough time to start the propagation and it will continue thru the night... once it begins and continues for another 12 hours, I'll be very surprised if it does not make it to shore. What's really remarkable is that we've gone this far into the season without a full upwelling, another reason that the lake is long overdue.

[ray koziatek]

thats strange that the port your outa reacts that way kinda the oppisite on the ny side when we get a south wind the warmer top water blows north and the cold water rolls up behind it causing the fog conditions and a steady north wind pushes the warm water to shore dropping the thermo or cold water down as deep as 120 ft sometimes as happened last month here and pushes the warm water to shore causing us to run 120 ft plus cable out to reach the cold water,and Seneca flips about twice a year due to its depth and water temp usually this time of year and sometimes about jan feb if its been a early cold winter this jan it never flipped and the fishing was all screwed up for most of the jan,feb fishing ,and if july is too cold or windy the upper warm water colum stays mixed up so the lake doesnt stratify and get that 4hr flip kinda weird to be sitting there on a dead calm day and in a matter of a couple hours the surface temp will drop 30 degrees, and tha water starts moving like you are sitting i a lock as its being flooded,, the currents come straight up as the lake flips and you can watch the temp drop and feel the air get cold from the water

[Billy V]

Guys,

I just came off the water in Fair Haven, and there was NO UPWELLING here. The fishing was fantastic today, and the temps are very stable. I'd fet out here if you can this weekend...should be a good one!

Bill

[UpGrady]

It's amazing how stable the lake has been this summer... I'll eat my words!

[LongLine]

I'd say there was a pretty good upwelling starting west of Russell the other day (8/8)

Lousy pic but there was a 7F surf drop

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[RUNNIN REBEL]

HEY HANS

Any predictions on how much snow we will get this winter?

Just kidding EVERYONE, This post is actually an old ribbing on my Karnac friend Hans.

Keep in touch!

Nostradamus

[ray koziatek]

yes in fact ,also it will be getting dark shortly after sunset and lighter after sunrise...............and the fishing did almost return to normal this weekend,well at least out west............

[UpGrady]

Jerry,

Nice!!!

No snow and 80 degree sunshine... all winter!

Ok... maybe I'm a bit confused with Kona, but I can dream...