FIngers Crossed...

[Storm Warning II]

Based upon this:

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/anim.php?lake=e&param=icecon&type=f

 

And the current rate of degradation of ice...

 

FINGERS CROSSED that 4/17 - 4/18 is Niagara Boom Removal...

 

Giving the WHI fishers 3 weeks to clear the cold crap out of the Niagara...

[GAMBLER]

We are supposed to get another 70 degree day Monday and some rain before then.  We can all hope. 

[muskiedreams]

Friday is going to be in the upper 60s too.

[MCF]

And as long as we can start going away from nights with temps 20 degrees or less.

[Storm Warning II]

I know the pack that is left out in front of Erie, PA is about to drown...nothing but rain in the forecast (some heavy like tonight's forecast) has the pack about drowned...

[baitrigger]

Power auth. is planning boom removal for early may. Sorry, I dont like it either.

[Storm Warning II]

Baitrigger...what the hell happened to April 1st or 20% ? We are ahead of last year by all the statistical data.

[baitrigger]

Last year was may 1. Latest ever. I dont have anything to do with it. They have informed municipalitys down river that first week in may is the time. 42% coverage as of yesterday. It is not 20%. Its more like 4%. So many square miles. Dont quote me on %, I did the math years ago.

[RD9]

For the first time this year you can see miles of open water in front of the cattaragus creek on Erie. From ice fishing erie this winter my opinion is that the ice pack was not nearly as thick this year and there was alot less shove ice. Last year there was shoves that went miles with ice jammed up twenty feet high in areas. Rain and high winds will put a hurting on it this week.

[mark2175]

The rule is removal by April first unless there is more than 250 square miles of ice cover. They will continue to monitor it daily via satellite and fly overs and once down to 250 square miles will start removal. Last year they started April 28th. It's very possible they start earlier this year still. All depends on the next two weeks of weather. The rain and warm weather forecasted will certainly help.

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[GAMBLER]

This week of East wind is going to push the ice back to the West into warmer water that could deplete the ice too.  Hopefully it is gone soon. 

[Storm Warning II]

If you watch the animation, there is a RAPID degradation of cover and thickness between now and the 13th (kinda fun to watch).  It also notes that the mean thickness of the remaining ice is down to 7.2cm (2.83 inches) at that point in time.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/anim.php?lake=e&param=icethk&type=f

[Storm Warning II]

^{This evidently represents 250 sq miles:}

 

[tlox]

The problem is, the ice in the Eastern Basin by Buffalo is typically the thickest.  I'm optimistic like you but realistically, i'd bet that it is closer to the 24th that the Boom starts to come out.  I'd love it to be much sooner.

[baitrigger]

What we have to keep in mind, when it comes to the boom. Its not a matter of pushing a button and its out. They started taking it out last year and ran into problems that took a couple of extra days to work out. Crews have to be scheduled to do the work. They cant do that until its ready. Its easier to take out later, then to rush it. I fish the bar every year. Boom out april 1, best fishing. Its gonna be another year of hard work filling boxes. Imho.

[Adk1]

What we have to keep in mind, when it comes to the boom. Its not a matter of pushing a button and its out. They started taking it out last year and ran into problems that took a couple of extra days to work out. Crews have to be scheduled to do the work. They cant do that until its ready. Its easier to take out later, then to rush it. I fish the bar every year. Boom out april 1, best fishing. Its gonna be another year of hard work filling boxes. Imho.

can someone explain what the boom is?

[baitrigger]

The ice boom is an artifical barrier put in place to stop lake erie ice from blocking the power authority water intakes. Google it.

[tlox]

Another side effect of the ice boom, once its released and the ice flows come through, there is a significant debris field that also comes with it.  I put the boat in the slip last year a few days after the last ice came through, came down the next day and there was a telephone pole sized log floating next to it in the slip.  Had to dodge a floating picnic table heading out to the bar.  There's a lot of standing seagulls on the water this time of year.

[joe g]

any updates on boom removal timing?

[baitrigger]

Power auth. Is planning removal for first week in may. When they start it will be all over the local news.

[tlox]

Lake Erie is down to 28% coverage and decreasing pretty quickly. The ice pack is fragmented so these temps this week should do some good work on it.

Edited April 12, 2015 by tlox

[Tony G]

Soon it won't matter when they remove the boom, she is going to be ice free by mid-week!!!

[baitrigger]

Hope you're right. Sooner the ice is gone, the sooner water temps go up.

[Storm Warning II]

There are some 50 degree surface temps in the western basin of Erie already...love to see some of that come east

[Tim Bromund]

We just need some NE winds to push that ice into the warm western basin where it will quickly sink, melt and be gone for good.

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