Was it really the 2 year olds that came to spawn?

[LongLine]

How's this for a possible 3rd (composite) theory: 

 

Part 1:  Water temps were different this year.  It's been my experience that in past years water east of the Genny were a little warmer than waters to the west of the Genny at the same depth.  (150 & less) This year was reversed.  More salmon were reported caught off I-Bay than off Russell. But, this is nearshore.  In years past the NOAA transects showed east end deep water much warmer than west end. (Satellite mapping)  This year there wasn't a big difference.  There wasn't a big pile-up of warm water North of Oswego, mid to late summer.  Temp at the buoy is nice but that is only one point.  Temp 1/2 mile away could have been 5 degrees or more different.  NOAA currents maps (showing the gyres) were really strange this year.

 

Part 2: It's been documented that Alewives have been pushed out deeper due to the food chain changes in the past few years.  Salmon are eating machines that will "keep them in sight."

 

Let's say that historically, after their spawning migration the alewives used to return to 2 miles offshore on both ends of the lake; where there was ample food. So historically the salmon on the west end would hang around the alewives & return to cold water. whereas on the east end that 2 miles was in warmer water.  In warmer water, metabolism speeds up & those salmon would be more active, hence eat more & get bigger, as salmon spawning runs were getting closer.  Now, (with the alewives post spawn)  they return to 3 miles offshore.  On the west end the salmon were still in cold water but on the east end, those salmon are now in cold water.

 

To simplify: In years past, 1/2 the salmon (west end) followed the alewives and ended up in cold water and the other 1/2 (east end) followed the alewives and ended up in warm water.  This year, both halves ended up in cold water.  Where they resided prior to the salmon spawning run was over deeper water and it was colder, thus none of them really packed on the weight due to metabolism.

 

In hindsight, I'd like to see the data for the weights of the returning 2 and 3 year old fish to see if there are any indications of a bimodal distribution within each year class.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TileMan Dan]

Interesting points you make, Tom.

[jimski2]

Consider the Kenai River King Salmon run that is in danger  of collapse now.

[GAMBLER]

I just looked at the Lake temp data for December 19th 2011 (the last non winter we had) and we are 2 degrees warmer on December 19th 2015.  This is nothing but good news for the alewives and the trout and salmon!  hopefully this puts the fishery back on track. 

[rolmops]

I just looked at the Lake temp data for December 19th 2011 (the last non winter we had) and we are 2 degrees warmer on December 19th 2015.  This is nothing but good news for the alewives and the trout and salmon!  hopefully this puts the fishery back on track. 

That is good news indeed. 

The main thing that I learned from the meeting at the Irondeqoit Club, is that the salmon population really is part of a 3 to 4 year cycle and although we will see more survival and hopefully better fishing next year,the warmish weather we have now will mostly effect the spawn that was put in the water in 2015 and only in 2017 will we see the effect of this winter.

[GAMBLER]

I'm more worried about two years classes of poor alewive production.  2012 class was huge.  I would think if the winter stays this way, we will see another boom in alewives.