Advice on Conditions for Sunday

[Skook]

Hello,

 

I have a brown trout trip scheduled for Sunday morning out of Mexico Bay.  The captain called yesterday to go over the details and mentioned that he is keeping his eye on the potential for poor boating conditions on Sunday, and that he should be able to let me know by Friday evening whether the trip is still on.

 

I'm new to Lake Ontario fishing, and so I googled the forecast conditions for Sunday.  I found a National Weather Service nearshore marine forecast that is calling for west winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.  I would like to ask whether these conditions as forecast would be considered relatively safe and fishable.

 

My understanding is that the wave height could have an impact on the ability to run boards (not to mention the ability of my landlubber self to keep food down).  Like I said, I am completely inexperienced, and I'm wondering whether it's likely that the trip will go on or be cancelled.

 

Thank you.

Edited May 12, 2017 by Skook

[brucehookedup]

The east end of the lake gets rough on a 20 knot west wind. Safety wise no problem, fishable is questionable.

[rdebadts]

It won't be 1-3s in Mexico with 15+west winds. More like 4s. Strong west winds are not fun on that end. The waves have 200 miles to get big and angry


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[Skook]

Thank you for the replies, but it's just what I didn't want to hear. 

 

I've been reading all sorts of reports that say the brown trout fishing is crazy good right now.  Just my luck that I'll probably miss it.

 

Here is the latest forecast from the NWS that I just pulled off the Internet:

 

 SUNDAY...WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS LIKELY. WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
 

Edited May 12, 2017 by Skook

[Firechief48]

I hate to say it but I don't think you'll be fishing. My rule of thumb is west wind 15+ you're not getting on the lake. As was mentioned the waves have a long ways to build coming across the lake and when they start to build it can happen quicker than you think. 

[cuz]

Everything that has been posted is absolutely true, however, the weather can also change.  One thing I've learned during my 15+ years is that Lake Ontario is a fickle lady.  She can go fro dead calm to nasty in very little time, and vice versa.  Also, it is difficult to predict the weather/waves accurately several day out.  Don't give up hope, but a backup plan is never a bad idea either!  Good luck if you get out.  

[Skook]

Yeah.  A friend and I were planning to take our sons out on this trip.  I guess the issue is that they are forecasting a Nor'easter type system, and the winds will be coming down from the north on the backside of the low pressure system moving up the Atlantic coast.  If this is the case, the forecast conditions for Sunday might be pretty accurate.

 

I'm not sure if the boys will be content fishing the river for a few days in the rain hoping for dropbacks or smallies.  I have till 6:00 PM this evening to cancel the motel room without getting stuck with the bill.  Decisions, decisions....

Edited May 12, 2017 by Skook

[MikeyP]

1 hour ago, Skook said:

Yeah.  A friend and I were planning to take our sons out on this trip.  I guess the issue is that they are forecasting a Nor'easter type system, and the winds will be coming down from the north on the backside of the low pressure system moving up the Atlantic coast.  If this is the case, the forecast conditions for Sunday might be pretty accurate.

 

I'm not sure if the boys will be content fishing the river for a few days in the rain hoping for dropbacks or smallies.  I have till 6:00 PM this evening to cancel the motel room without getting stuck with the bill.  Decisions, decisions....

Keep in touch with your captain. Personally, I would reschedule for another day if possible.

[Skook]

Maybe there is hope.  I looked at the Accuweather hourly forecast for the city of Oswego, and it shows that winds are supposed to be anywhere from 7 mph to 10 mph between 6 A.M. and 12:00 P.M. on Sunday.  They are not calling for winds in excess of 10 mph until the afternoon.  Our trip is scheduled for the morning, and so maybe we can sneak it in before conditions deteriorate.  This with the understanding that the forecast is probably worth about what I paid for it.

 

Because I would need to cancel the hotel arrangements by 6:00 this evening, I was thinking about calling or texting the captain before then to get his thoughts.  Would this be acceptable protocol on the part of a client?  My guess is that he could be out fishing with other clients at that time, and I don't want to be a jerk.

 

Unfortunately, rescheduling probably won't happen.

[dgio67]

sounds like a good plan to me.  Doesn't sound like your a jerk about it.  Captains have to know you have money laid out for lodging and travel.   Captain already pointed out weather may be an issue.  Give him a quick call and see what his thoughts are. 

[shorething]

Might not be as bad in the morning  as later in the day . Probably fishable , but might not be so fun for the kids .

[Skook]

Yeah.  I texted the captain earlier and received a prompt reply.  We are canceled for Sunday.  

 

Thank you all for the replies and advice.