Thoughts on the weather

[trout1]

Just wondering what everyone’s thoughts were on what the ice conditions will be like in PennYan after next weeks weather?

 

 

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[Lucky13]

This was posted yesterday on the Iceshanty Sandy Pond thread by New Old Guy, one of the more experienced and well spoken posters there.  Looking at the forecast, I'd say it is pretty sage advice for anywhere in western and central NYS.

 

"Yo Guys & Gals,

 Just a quick note here. Check your 10 day weather forecast for the coming week if you are making plans to hit the ice. Today and tomorrow look to be outstanding, after that the weatherman says we are not only turning warm, but the warmth will be coupled with some rain on Thursday and Friday. The warm weather will extend on into the week end. While we have been blessed with some great ice so far this season, the advent of warmer conditions and the oncoming spring like conditions will warrant a good look see before entering your favorite honey hole in your next week's traveling plans. Some accesses will be better than others, obviously.

 Remember, those creek flow areas are always the first to go.  The gas holes which seemingly disappear with all the snow cover are still there and will be more visible in the coming week . The thinner ice will go first so don't forget to bring your spuds with you that you left home for the last 2 weeks. This is the time of winter we all have to be aware.  Let's all stay safe and use good judgement. I want all my friends to be there next year so I can kibitz with them. In closing, I will again use the old admonition  ..... SPUD SPUD SPUD"

 

 

[EsoxAC3]

Sound advice. Be safe out there.


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[trout1]

Great advice! If anyone is going out or sees any huts on the ice in penn yann today(Friday)could you let me know. Trying to figure out my weekend plans!


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[Sk8man]

We've been fishing there for weeks now and even in the real cold weather the mouth of the Keuka Outlet at Indian Pines was gradually becoming open water along the edge of the park at the south forcing folks to go further and further west nearly each time out. The outlet itself has been open water throughout the season with visible strong current operating and with runoff from the water on the ice it is now stronger adding pull from underneath to the existing ice shelf. As with a lot of  the popular places the ice can be much thicker out beyond the shoreline but not safe getting out to it. Over the years I've seen all sorts of things tried along the shore (e.g. boards etc.) with mixed success but I have come to the conclusion it is absolutely not worth it taking the chance under these marginal (at best) conditions. It can be a recipe for disaster and nearly every year you see folks going through on the news at various places. It can be hard to admit that the season is over (as we are struggling with right now) but the integrity of the ice has been severely compromised and is it worth taking a chance with your life rather than just getting prepared for the next type of fishing coming up? I put my shelter back down cellar yesterday and rigged up the ultralights

Edited February 16, 2018 by Sk8man

[Pequod1]

Fat Lady is getting up to the stage. Think I will get the boat out of storage soon. 

[Sk8man]

There are however a number of guys out right now on Conesus....won't last long

[Lucky13]

Let's hope they can get off OK.  The next couple of days could be very treacherous as it is supposed to get cold at night, could lock up the shore enough for early risers to get on, but conditions could deteriorate enough for people to get very wet coming off.    When you are making the decision as to whether it is too risky, please also consider the risks to the first responders who may have to haul you out, as happened down on Honeoye some years ago under similar thaw conditions. 

[Sk8man]

Good points Lucky 13. A few years ago on cayuga we were walking out and encountered a pressure ridge about half way out to the middle and while we were debating crossing it the thing gave way with a whole bunch of snowmobilers and four wheeler guys out on the other side of it. They had no way to get back to shore as the ice had separated out quite aways. They had to pack their stuff up and motor to the Seeneca Falls area to get back off the ice.Sure would have been a very long walk if you didn't have a machine. Even open water fishing during thecold weather can be dangerous and unpredictable. Admiral Byrd and I once fished out of Watkins in his Penn Yan around this time of year trolling for salmon and everthing was fine while going out but at the end when we were returning to the launch huge icebergs were flowing out of Catherines Creek big enough to sink the boat and we were lucky enough to navigate around them to get back to the dock. Just something to think about....