Lake O. Will it go by the way of lake michigan

[Wentworth6]

I spoke to a friend today about the near collapse of fishing for salmon in Lake Michigan. Baitfish for Kings disappearing. What’s the predictions out there for Lake Ontario. Zebra muscles killing plankton he said. Not wanting to stir up a hornets nest , just curious. He said charter boats up on the east side of Michigan selling out.any thoughts. Smarter people please reply.

[Tall Tails]

NO... We have this Nutrient producing lake above us called Lake Erie... We will be just fine.

[Lucky13]

We may have a more proactive management group than the multiple states bordering Lake Michigan.  Actions have been taken, despite their unpopularity, with an eye toward staving off such a collapse.  There are certainly some variables that are not well defined, like diporea  die off and its long term effects, but overall I think our scientists have a better handle on the Lake, and the appropriate predator-prey balance. 

 

http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/107705.html

 

http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/111196.html

 

http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/27068.html

[Wentworth6]

Well for that I am happy to hear. It’s ashamed what’s happened there. Thanks for that information. I will read it .

[Gator]

The key here is that we can't get complacent. I agree that we have a better chance of weathering the storm than L. Michigan, but there's no denying that some strange pressures are being put on L. Ontario and it's impossible to predict exact outcomes. There was a dramatic change in size and three years of a crazy bite that prefaced the end in L. Michigan. If the same happens here, then we need to worry.

[Gill-T]

Unfortunately, many of the Michigan charter captains that are selling their boats were also the ones who voted against stocking cuts in the face of evidence of declining bait and food web.  Lake Michigan is also a good lesson in how the charter business is reliant on Pacific species.  Lake Trout do not drive charter sales.  I think lake ontario managers have it right...Alewives and Kings-joined at the hip.  

[David Podlesnik]

Not sure how Lake Michigan's biology is doing right now, but the lake produced some big fish last year including a couple 40# beasts.

[Wentworth6]

Wow , I knew the right people were here to answer the question. I have 2 sons who love salmon fishing and a new to me boat to hit it this year. Thank you for the encouraging words. It sounds like the people you mentioned have a great handle on the things they can control. Other things are always going to be out of our control. Thanks again. You are a great bunch on this site.

[garrymny]

I wonder if the algae blooms in Lake Erie will cause problems  for both lakes ?

[Gill-T]

Wentworth, rest assured you bought your boat at a great time.  Fishing is poised to be great  on Erie for walleyes and Ontario for Kings this year.  

 

Garry, algae blooms indicate fertility.  Good for fishery......not so much for drinking water or swimming holes.

[Lucky13]

It is also a matter of what kind of algae.  Blue greens, or cyanobacteria, are the big drinking water threat.  According to Dr Greg Boyer of SUNY ESF, there are 6 factors that contribute to the blooms: Nutrient level, Light, Changing water temperatures, calm winds, seed populations, and grazers like the mussels.  The only one readily susceptible to control is nutrient levels.   Anglers should also be aware that ANY contact with blooms is now considered bad, so if you are trolling along and encounter a bloom, it is a good idea to glove up for the pickup, and then move.  I have not heard of any open water blooms on Lake Ontario, but certainly some of the embayments like Sodus have experienced blooms. 

 

https://www.dec.ny.gov/chemical/77118.html

 

https://www.dec.ny.gov/chemical/77145.html

 

Other algae blooms, like the nearshore proliferation of grass greens like cladophora, are definitely a negative for lakeshore residents, and can lead to taste and or problems.  Deepwater blooms on Lake Ontario are ubnlikely because the syatem as nutrient poor, despite the input from Lake Erie, which is manly impacted in the Western Basin due to the Maumee River.

 

Of greater concern for the salmonid populations of Lake Ontario is status of the alewife population, which appears to be most impacted by predator demand and winter conditions, but is also limited by open water phytoplankton(algae) levels limited by nutrient levels .  The quandary for managers is that they can only control predator demand by stocking reductions, and they have to make these decisions  a few years before they will have an effect, so they have been forced to act conservatively, too much so for many of the anglers.  But if the size of the Kings starts to drop off drastically, it is possible that they have underestimated demand  So far, that is not happening, and a side benefit of too few predators would be at least some "monsters" showing up.   

Edited April 25, 2018 by Lucky13

[Gill-T]

Deep water blooms in summer on Ontario are “whiting events”. These do not occur on nutrient poor lakes. 

[HBC]

Zebra and quagga mussel populations are declining rapidly.  The lake may return to its natural state if we are lucky if these lake filters die off.

[Wentworth6]

How come they are dying off

the zebra and quagga

Edited April 26, 2018 by Wentworth6

[Gill-T]

Not dying off in the the case of quggua but more of a rebalancing. Stuff is eating mussels. Prime substrate is used up also. 

[Lucky13]

21 hours ago, Gill-T said:

Deep water blooms in summer on Ontario are “whiting events”. These do not occur on nutrient poor lakes. 

"Whiting" is related to concentration of Calcium Carbonate.  Deep water phosphorus concentrations have declined from the greater than 25 µg/l levels that produced the "pea soup" we saw in the late 60's to the ~7 µg/L concentration minimum of a few years ago.  The nutrients controlling productivity in water bodies are the same as in fertilizer, N, P, and K, with P indicated as the limiting nutrient in Lake Ontario.  Overall nutrient and phytoplankton levels in Lake Ontario are tracked as part of the trophic state monitoring conducted by Cornell Biological field station in conjunction with NYSDEC and others, and reported on in the State of the Lake reports (Last one was 2016, still waiting on 2017)  I refer you to the discussion section of Section 16 of the report, 2016 Status of the Lake Ontario Lower Trophic Levels, which indicates that phosphorus levels remain at or below the 10 µg/L goal set for the Lake, and within the range associated with nutrient poor, oligotrophic lakes.

 

 

 

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/deq/deq-oea-cau-whitings_415030_7.pdf

 

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/fish_marine_pdf/lorpt16b.pdf

[Gill-T]

Lake Ontario is not Oligotrophic. Researchers have stated this. The water is green. You will not see whiting events on Lake Superior. Lots of “stuff” in the water. That outlier phosphorus reading a few years back was because of the harsh winter and spring delayed farmers fertilizing their fields. 

[Wentworth6]

So does all of this mean the lake is in good shape and so is the baitfish population but alll  the above need to be watched carefully. It seems that the state and the fishing public, charter boat captains included are trying to keep a handle on it all. I saw the pen rearing that works due  to voulenteers. It all makes me think that  there is a coordinated effort with the state and public. Am I on target of off track a bit.

[GAMBLER]

The bait population could be better after the two hard winters.  The last two YOY alewife hatches have been good and made a big difference.  If we have another good year class this year, IMO we are back on track. 

[Wentworth6]

Well let’s hope and pray . Thanks.

[Lucky13]

23 hours ago, Gill-T said:

Lake Ontario is not Oligotrophic. Researchers have stated this. The water is green. You will not see whiting events on Lake Superior. Lots of “stuff” in the water. That outlier phosphorus reading a few years back was because of the harsh winter and spring delayed farmers fertilizing their fields. 

That was not an outlier, that is the long term trend, although it has risen , and been relatively static over about the last 20 years.  Dr. Edward Mills coined the term "oligotrophication" to describe the cleaning up of Lake Ontario, basically the opposite of eutrophication.  Read the section of the report I linked, it is all there, and the nutrient and chlorophyll trends are well graphed. To quote from the discussion,"Secchi depth, chl-a, and TP are indicators of lake trophic status (Carlson 1977).  In 2016,average Apr-Oct values for all sites ranged from ... 5.2- 9.9 µg/L TP.... These values are within the range for oligotrophic (low productivity) systems (...1-10 µg/L TP; Wetzel, 2001)"    I only included Total Phosphorus, but all are in range.

 

Another  graph from the Internet.  96-2001 are all in the oligotrophic region. 

 

  . 

 

 

[Lucky13]

14 hours ago, GAMBLER said:

The last two YOY alewife hatches have been good and made a big difference. 

We have not seen the results from last year yet.  While there are 2015 fish around, they are not out there in great numbers  The 2016 hatch,, which was reported on as one year olds in 2017,  was very strong, but we are still waiting to see how last year's hatch made it through the winter.  At the SOL meetings, Brian Weidel showed a graph that said it could go either way. No one who went out has said anything, or no one went out! 

[GAMBLER]

4 hours ago, Lucky13 said:

We have not seen the results from last year yet.  While there are 2015 fish around, they are not out there in great numbers  The 2016 hatch,, which was reported on as one year olds in 2017,  was very strong, but we are still waiting to see how last year's hatch made it through the winter.  At the SOL meetings, Brian Weidel showed a graph that said it could go either way. No one who went out has said anything, or no one went out! 

That is correct.  The 2015 hatch was OK and 2016 was a record hatch.  If this seasons hatch is good, we will be fine. 

[Wentworth6]

Lucky13.

i read all that information. Wow. Lots of great data. Seems like it’s in much better shape than it could be. Are the stocking rates of kings vastly different than say 10yrs age. Also are the kings somewhat adapting to the other meals in the lake.

[Lucky13]

Gator pretty well sums it up.  Pressure on the bait from predator levels at the top and reduced nutrients at the bottom, lots of bait, but way less than before non native salmonids were introduced.  Stocking numbers are way down from what was put in at the start, but there is significant natural reproduction of Kings, at least in the Salmon River.

 

Some biologists say that the kings will adapt to food changes, others say they are primarily herring(alewife) feeders.  Reports from Michigan indicate that they did not switch right over to bloater when the alewife population got smaller.   Steve LaPan of NYSDEC will be the first to admit that they are managing for the bait now, and being conservative.