2018 Fall LOC

[whaler1]

Good luck everyone!  Hope to see some big fish come over the rails.  Be safe!

[GAMBLER]

You too Bill!

[Fishnut]

Why can’t I find the link to the leader board on here with my phone??


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[whaler1]

http://loc.org/uploads/018Fall.pdf


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[whaler1]

Boom!


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[whaler1]

Brian, looks like you (Keith) caught a fish today, no report?[emoji16]


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[GAMBLER]

Crazy day Bill. We fished East in tight and pounded mature kings. Lots of kings, some bows, browns and lakers with one at 20lbs in the mix. Temp is high. We fished the top 40’. Nothing like watching mature kings smash a high rigger or high diver!!

 

 

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Double with a 22lb and a 24lb king.

Keith’s 27.05

[whaler1]

Fantastic!  Had to be a ball!

[Silver Fox]

It's the spot that keeps on giving, until tonight. Could be wiped out after the blow.

Silverfoxcharters.net

[whaler1]

Yep, that blow is going to change everything.  The more northwest it hits the warmer the water thats going to blow in.

[GAMBLER]

Today, tonight, tomorrow and Thursday is going to really screw us! It is what it is. Guys on the east end should get ready. Any day these kings are going to vanish and show up in Oswego.


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[whaler1]

Not all of them Brian, the ones that have crept in arent going anywhere.  Once it settles down I would be pounding 100 ish feet of water regardless of temp.

[Silver Fox]

Not all of them Brian, the ones that have crept in arent going anywhere.  Once it settles down I would be pounding 100 ish feet of water regardless of temp.

Agreed. The ones that head towards Oswego are the offshore fish IMO.

Silverfoxcharters.net

[whaler1]

Not one impressive fish leading any division. Curious to see what gets hung this weekend.


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[NymphO]

Work and weather has me off the water. Be after em Sunday, 40# or bust !!!

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[T_barb]

seems like overall size of the kings in this derby is way below where they have been in recent history...   Is quantity impacting the overall size..   just curious on what people think..

[Sweet Caroline]

Clearly the predator/prey ratio seems to be a little skewed this year. Bait is getting absolutely pounded with this many salmon in the lake right now. Every bait school I’ve marked has had 2-3 fish on it.  Although these high catch rates are nice, they are so high it is a little concerning. I have caught well over 100 salmon this year with only one or two being over 20lbs. Record high catch rates with record low salmon weight is a strong sign of a predator/prey imbalance. High catch rates, smaller fish, people complain. Big fish, lower catch, people complain. DEC has a tough job for sure. 

Edited September 1, 2018 by A-Lure-A

[m3miller66]

Quicher****in😂

[GAMBLER]

Clearly the predator/prey ratio seems to be a little skewed this year. Bait is getting absolutely pounded with this many salmon in the lake right now. Every bait school I’ve marked has had 2-3 fish on it.  Although these high catch rates are nice, they are so high it is a little concerning. I have caught well over 100 salmon this year with only one or two being over 20lbs. Record high catch rates with record low salmon weight is a strong sign of a predator/prey imbalance. High catch rates, smaller fish, people complain. Big fish, lower catch, people complain. DEC has a tough job for sure. 

Read the state of he lake meeting minutes. The three and four year old kings are below average in size by three lbs. they started life off with no food because of the two missing year classes of alewifes. The two year olds size is right at the historical average. Things will be fine and get back to normal next season. We have caught a lot of kings over 20lbs this season. A lot of teens but a good number of 20’s.


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[Sweet Caroline]

Makes sense Gambler. Time will tell, but the trend of declining salmon size and increasing catch rates has been in the making for a long time now going back to the early 2000s. As somebody pointed out look at the history of the LOC leaderboards and the DEC published catch rates in the past 15 years. Not sure how sustainable the salmon numbers we have now are without something giving. I haven’t heard any news about the latest bait trawls but it seems like this many salmon would be putting a lot of pressure on any bait that is out there. I know it’s a different lake (LO being more productive,etc) but I can’t help thinking of Lake Michigan that had similar catch rates and sizes a few years ago. They ended up having to cut stocking in half. I don’t want to sound like I’m complaining or being a naysayer, I’m just being cautious. I’ve seen enough great fisheries crash and burn to know that things can change quickly for the worse to the point of no return. I love this fishery as much as anybody and have a 2 and a 4 year that I hope will too.

Edited September 2, 2018 by A-Lure-A

[GAMBLER]

1 hour ago, A-Lure-A said:

Makes sense Gambler. Time will tell, but the trend of declining salmon size and increasing catch rates has been in the making for a long time now going back to the early 2000s. As somebody pointed out look at the history of the LOC leaderboards and the DEC published catch rates in the past 15 years. Not sure how sustainable the salmon numbers we have now are without something giving. I haven’t heard any news about the latest bait trawls but it seems like this many salmon would be putting a lot of pressure on any bait that is out there. I know it’s a different lake (LO being more productive,etc) but I can’t help thinking of Lake Michigan that had similar catch rates and sizes a few years ago. They ended up having to cut stocking in half. I don’t want to sound like I’m complaining or being a naysayer, I’m just being cautious. I’ve seen enough great fisheries crash and burn to know that things can change quickly for the worse to the point of no return. I love this fishery as much as anybody and have a 2 and a 4 year that I hope will too.

The DEC cut stocking and we will see the impacts of that soon.  I have heard that last years YOY survival for alewife was high again from the spring trawls.  Back to back huge year classes should help right the ship.  I feel the same way as you.  I have been fishing this lake since I was 4 and now my son is following in my foot steps.  Hopefully another easy winter is in store for us and will help even more. 

[Lucky13]

My sense is that Gambler spoke with someone on the GLFC LO Committee Citizen's panel. Lets just say the 2017 hatch was not as dismal as the two year hole, but not everyone on the panel is as enthusiastic as some west end Charter Operators.  OMNRF and NYSDEC will likely be having public meetings to discuss these numbers,  and possibly other data, coming up soon.  I want to see the analysis of age and condition done at the Altmar hatchery on returning fish.  I can't believe that fish that are finding plenty of bait are hitting anything that moves in front of them, as they seem to be doing this year.  It also sounds like a lot of the fish caught in most of the US lake are mid teeners.  Are these robust 2 year olds, or are they scrawny 3 year olds? Certainly, Steve LaPan’s 40 pound eating machines are not hitting their full potential for growth.  Hindsight being closer to 20-20 now, I’m glad we have guys like Steve who were willing to take all the heat (a lot of it from the west end operators)  to stave off a bigger collapse, and I hope the data says they did enough with the earlier cuts.

Edited September 2, 2018 by Lucky13

[Gill-T]

To me the tool not being used to track YOY alewife health is the weight of one year old kings by August. Both year classes of the different species are joined at the hip.  The returning three year olds (graduating 4 year olds as of October) are going to be recorded as smaller than historical figures.  These fish I have been catching are short but fat.  These fish as one year olds got stocked in a spring with virtually no YOY alewife survival.  I checked some stomach contents of some scrawny shakers that got dragged around and weren't going to make it a few years ago and I found bugs but not bait.  Last year the one year olds in August were huge because of the 2016 record alewife hatch coincided with their stocking.  These are now the 2 year olds everyone has been catching and driving the record catch rates.  I was really worried how this year class of kings was impacting the bait levels as these fish were EVERYWHERE I went-from the Niagara to Sodus.  The natural reproduction of kings in the Salmon River in 2016 was the most prolific ever recorded.  Why so many two year olds? Was it a fitness issue of the highest YOY hatch every recorded in 2016 meeting the highest natural reproductive success year of kings ever recorded (simple predator vs prey relationship graph). Was there any "extra" surplus hatchery kings that were raised-and not destroyed by Canadian hatcheries (Andy Todd please respond if reading this), placed in the lake in lieu of the mild winter of 2016?  Then there is the non-scientific data your eye sees when your are watching the fishfinder throughout the year.....how much bait are we seeing?  This year was a tough one to get a handle on bait levels via sonar.  There were more deep mixing roll-overs on the lake than I can ever remember on a given year. There was cold water around all year.  As such, bait did not appear as large floor to ceiling bait balls like in years past.  Bait often showed as loose and around the surface cavitation level of the fishfinder.  Stomach surveys of the fish I cleaned ALWAYS had plenty of bait present.  Lately, I have felt much better about bait levels as the one year old kings I am catching are big and healthy plus as the lake has finally set-up, there is lots of large bait pods showing on the sonar (Olcott to Niagara).  The final effects of next year's large class of graduating kings will have on overall bait levels in Lake Ontario won't be fully understood for two more springs.  Who won out .....the 2016 alewife class or the 2016 kings?  I would love lake managers to develop an algorithm that considers all the factors effecting alewife/chinook salmon numbers when figuring out chinook stocking figures.  With all the years of data, we should know the effects of winter temperatures on alewife survival rates.  We should also be able to figure out the effects of water levels/water temperature during October/November on Salmon River chinook salmon natural reproduction success.  Merge the two data points into a formula that can be used by lake managers to set stocking figures.  In the meantime.....I can't wait until next year's fishing season to start.  Lake Ontario kicked ass this year!

[GAMBLER]

3 hours ago, Gill-T said:

To me the tool not being used to track YOY alewife health is the weight of one year old kings by August. Both year classes of the different species are joined at the hip.  The returning three year olds (graduating 4 year olds as of October) are going to be recorded as smaller than historical figures.  These fish I have been catching are short but fat.  These fish as one year olds got stocked in a spring with virtually no YOY alewife survival.  I checked some stomach contents of some scrawny shakers that got dragged around and weren't going to make it a few years ago and I found bugs but not bait.  Last year the one year olds in August were huge because of the 2016 record alewife hatch coincided with their stocking.  These are now the 2 year olds everyone has been catching and driving the record catch rates.  I was really worried how this year class of kings was impacting the bait levels as these fish were EVERYWHERE I went-from the Niagara to Sodus.  The natural reproduction of kings in the Salmon River in 2016 was the most prolific ever recorded.  Why so many two year olds? Was it a fitness issue of the highest YOY hatch every recorded in 2016 meeting the highest natural reproductive success year of kings ever recorded (simple predator vs prey relationship graph). Was there any "extra" surplus hatchery kings that were raised-and not destroyed by Canadian hatcheries (Andy Todd please respond if reading this), placed in the lake in lieu of the mild winter of 2016?  Then there is the non-scientific data your eye sees when your are watching the fishfinder throughout the year.....how much bait are we seeing?  This year was a tough one to get a handle on bait levels via sonar.  There were more deep mixing roll-overs on the lake than I can ever remember on a given year. There was cold water around all year.  As such, bait did not appear as large floor to ceiling bait balls like in years past.  Bait often showed as loose and around the surface cavitation level of the fishfinder.  Stomach surveys of the fish I cleaned ALWAYS had plenty of bait present.  Lately, I have felt much better about bait levels as the one year old kings I am catching are big and healthy plus as the lake has finally set-up, there is lots of large bait pods showing on the sonar (Olcott to Niagara).  The final effects of next year's large class of graduating kings will have on overall bait levels in Lake Ontario won't be fully understood for two more springs.  Who won out .....the 2016 alewife class or the 2016 kings?  I would love lake managers to develop an algorithm that considers all the factors effecting alewife/chinook salmon numbers when figuring out chinook stocking figures.  With all the years of data, we should know the effects of winter temperatures on alewife survival rates.  We should also be able to figure out the effects of water levels/water temperature during October/November on Salmon River chinook salmon natural reproduction success.  Merge the two data points into a formula that can be used by lake managers to set stocking figures.  In the meantime.....I can't wait until next year's fishing season to start.  Lake Ontario kicked ass this year!

Comparing temp data to alewife survival is something I don't think they will ever understand.  I compiled all the temp data from work and compared it to the survival rates from the state of the lake meetings and there were some years the data would match what you would think the survival would be and others that it made no sense.  There were very warm winters with weak survival and very cold years with good survival. 

[Sweet Caroline]

Couldn’t you just adjust the following years stocking based on the spring trawls? Would always be a year behind but it is better than stocking the same number year after year regardless of conditions.