2018 Fall LOC

[Sweet Caroline]

Couldn’t you just adjust the following years stocking based on the spring trawls? Would always be a year behind but it is better than stocking the same number year after year regardless of conditions. 

[Gill-T]

24 minutes ago, A-Lure-A said:

Couldn’t you just adjust the following years stocking based on the spring trawls? Would always be a year behind but it is better than stocking the same number year after year regardless of conditions. 

 

 

That is kind of what they do now.  The shaker fitness and king natural repo numbers just add additional layers of info.

[Lucky13]

6 hours ago, A-Lure-A said:

Couldn’t you just adjust the following years stocking based on the spring trawls? Would always be a year behind but it is better than stocking the same number year after year regardless of conditions. 

That's exactly what they did two years ago, the spring trawls showed a gap where at larger sizes, two year classes of alewife were missing, so they cut stocking by 20%.  This year's spring trawls are inconclusive, so no decision been made yet.

 

Algorithms are great, but there is a principal in science whereby the significance of a number is determined by the indeterminate errors associated with the measurements taken to get the number    Because there are relatively large indeterminate errors associated with activities undertaken on large spatial scales, like trawling, you are going to get numbers like 2.1 billion, not 2,165,412,347 from these efforts.  A lot of what some see as real differences are just "noise"   The more numbers like this that go into an algorithm, the less useful the result will be.  As Gambler points out, just two variables may correlate beautifully for a while and then contradict for long enough to make the relationship suspect, or at least more complicated, than just the two factors alone suggest.  

[Lucky13]

Aside from the difficulty in sampling for "shakers,"  it is my recollection that NYSD EC indicated that the first year of LO life for a King involves eating bugs, they do not start chowing on alewife until the second season.  If one year olds could find YOY alewife, they could eat them, but Brian Weidel of USGS explained at the SOL a couple of years ago that a given year’s alewife hatch did not show until late summer and they grew through the larval stage pretty quickly.  I think DEC gets this "shaker" data from the jack survey.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Lucky13