Is there hope ?

[LongLine]

High water means more erosion and flooding of land owners property.  Landowners (farmers) that have fertilized their lawns (fields)  for years.  Guess where that fertilizer has/is going. Unfortunately that "modern" stuff is going to help the wrong "seaweed" and wrong algae thrive.  A few sewer systems/septics were flooded this last year.  Guess where the sewage went. 

 

High water also means it'll take longer for any ice to form on the lake.  It'll form in late Jan early Feb then be gone in late Feb or early March. i.e lake won't have ice on it nearly as long as it used to, hence lake will warm up much faster and higher temp will go much deeper later in summer.  Baitfish reproduction is temperature dependent not depth dependent.  The spawning runs are affected by temperature.  Warmer lake late in year also means a lot more "lake effect" snowfall which means towns will use a lot more road chemicals that will eventually wash into you guess where.

 

The environmentalists argument was that it would be good for the wetlands to be rinsed alternately high & then dry out with low water.  The didn't consider wetlands staying high.  (where are these wetlands anyway?)

 

The environmentalists should  have probably turned their attention to the birds.  Anyone see the huge flocks of Canada Geese this year?

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[whaler1]

That’s a great post!
Stay tuned for a bs response


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[lost a lure]

You called that one correctly

That’s a great post!
Stay tuned for a bs response


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[HB2]

Any fertilizer that is applied to any lawns in the LO watershed is going to be washed into the lake by snow melt or rain. That doesn't matter  how high or low the lake is . Maybe the wetlands got "rinsed" by the high water and any retained chemicals  washed out into the lake , thus the green water. I all ways thought the wetlands,were a filter for the main lake . 

 

Use to be a lot of phosphates / etc way back when that caused a lot of plankton and the alwives to overpopulated the lake . Which is why we have the Salmon . Remember all the weeds back in the 60s  And  70s ?  The phosphates have since been removed . 

 

 When the zebras cleaned up the lake and took the bottom of the food chain away , some in Lake Erie considered pumping raw sewage into the lake to make up for it. And crap is certainly not modern fertilizer. 

 

We have had,winters with high temps and no snow  or ice cover and the lake has survived. I thought we get alwives die off when the lake gets to cold . 

 

This is all just speculation and maybe just " B.S. " 

 

Nobody knows for sure how all this stuff working together will affect the lakes ecosystem. 

 

I guess we all will have to wait and see . 

[LongLine]

1 hour ago, HB2 said:

Nobody knows for sure how all this stuff working together will affect the lakes ecosystem. 

 

Then they shouldn't have messed with it.  Maybe they should have at least thought about ramifications and a little more detail of the entire system.  i.e treat the disease, not the symptoms.

 

1 hour ago, HB2 said:

And crap is certainly not modern fertilizer. 

 

True, it also contains a lot of pharmaceuticals which are currently high on the list of major pollutants in the lakes.

1 hour ago, HB2 said:

wetlands,were a filter for the main lake

 

I used to think that too until I realized they aren't located off shore and looked at  the water current charts for the lake.

1 hour ago, HB2 said:

doesn't matter  how high or low the lake is

 

Means it doesn't have to travel nearly as far.  Edgemere, Beach & parts of the Parkway (& land) got washed really well and are ready for a lot more chemicals.  If (big if) the chemicals are biodegradable, I'd rather they degrade on land than in the water. I also favor a slow release so that wildlife has a chance of adapting rather than the shock value of a major release.  

 

I'm all in favor of environmental stewardship but politicians really blew it!  2014 means they didn't allow substantial water out of the system until it was too late.  FEDs kicked the sportsmen & landowners right in the teeth just so as to extend the shipping season and allow the freighters to come in longer in the year dumping what ever. (Remember NYS law about ballast exchange got shot down by Feds)

 

What's the current outflow right now?  Water should have gone down a lot more than it has.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

[HB2]

All good points ,and they may be true . 

 

But 

 

These are we my observations : 

 

 

The water this year in my area this spring , early summer the water was as green as I have seen it since the 80s . I comment to a few others who said they noticed  it also . 

 

The king fishery has been lights out the past 2 years and average size was up this past year.  Like the mid 80s   

 

The year before last was the first high water . 

 

So maybe the high water has nothing to do with this and it is coincidental. 

 

Then again , maybe it's not . 

 

As I stated, let's wait and see. 

 

Weather or not plan 2014 is good for property owners , the lake shore line ,etc and if they should be letting out more water was not my point of this post . 

Edited November 30, 2019 by HB2

[Lucky13]

I know it is off your point, but just for the record: ( from https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/flows?_ga=2.196245420.1473435394.1575125285-902741098.1551272481)

 

Recorded Flows (Past Seven Days):

Date      Lake Ontario Outflow        Lake Erie Outflow              Net Total Supply*            Ottawa River Outflow

Nov 28  8,860 m³/s (312,900 cfs    7,890 m³/s (278,600 cfs)     TBD*                              2,140 m³/s (75,600 cfs)

Nov 27 8,880 m³/s (313,600 cfs)   7,930 m³/s (280,000 cfs)     8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs) 1,670 m³/s (59,000 cfs)

Nov 26 8,860 m³/s (312,900 cfs)   7,190 m³/s (253,900 cfs)    8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs) 1,810 m³/s (63,900 cfs)

Nov 25 8,880 m³/s (313,600 cfs)   7,200 m³/s (254,300 cfs)    8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs) 1,780 m³/s (62,900 cfs)

Nov 24 8,860 m³/s (312,900 cfs)   7,500 m³/s (264,900 cfs)    8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs) 1,800 m³/s (63,600 cfs)

Nov 23 8,870 m³/s (313,200 cfs)   7,240 m³/s (255,700 cfs)    8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs) 1,580 m³/s (55,800 cfs)

Nov 22 8,920 m³/s (315,000 cfs)   7,820 m³/s (276,200 cfs)    8,220 m³/s (290,300 cfs)  2,210 m³/s (78,000 cfs)

* Net Total Supply (NTS) is determined weekly as the average total inflow Lake Ontario receives from Lake Erie, over-lake precipitation and basin runoff/streamflow, minus lake-evaporation

 

The discharge has dropped recently, which will assist shipping (it is the velocity of the SLR that makes shipping difficult, not the level of the lake, velocity increases with increased discharge, the boats sometimes ground because they lose a lot of maneuverability at peak discharges).  It has been maintained at record discharge levels since the recession of flooding in Montreal, until being dropped recently.  But the water coming in from the upper Great Lakes is still at or exceeding record levels, so even with these way above average discharges, the lake level is still way above average.  Oh, and we got quite a bit of precipitation since Halloween over LO and in the watershed.

 

When you overfill a bathtub, there is a relief pipe that takes the excess, but if you continue to overfill at a rate that exceeds the capacity of that pipe, you get water all over the floor, the bathtub overflows.   There is only so much discharge capacity, so if the input from upstream stays where it is, it is unlikely things will be pretty next spring, unless a solid icepack forms on the upper river early, and allows higher discharge under the ice without the flooding and scour danger that occur in the open channel.  In 2017, there was a major drop in discharge ~90000 cfs) in late December, lasting about 20 days; in 2018, this was postponed to Mid January of 2019, and lasted 10 days, and this may have been due to lack of ice cover to allow the higher discharges that resumed in mid January of 2018, and then on January 20 of 2019.  But unless you install a bigger outlet pipe, if you overload a bathtub, it eventually overflows. 

 

Jimski pointed out this problem a couple of years ago on this website.  I contacted Dr. Wilcox at SUNY Brockport about time of travel through the Great Lakes to try to get a sense of when this would start impacting us, and he replied to me that he was unaware of any definitive data or studies on this.  It would seem we have a ball park figure of about 1 year or so before the "spigotless source" starts messing up the plans.   

[jimski2]

The IJC can control the Lake Ontario outflow up to a certain point. The controls on lakes Erie and Michigan could be to install construction projects to divert their outflow to various other rivers that possibly accept it.During the Ice Age Glacier time Lake Erie flowed down the Wabash River to the Mississippi River System. Really that is dreaming, we really need to live what we have. We can’t fix stupid so change to floating docks and rebuild our boat ramps . Concrete walls are destroyed by wave action along with steel piling. Only large stone breakwaters have been shown to withstand storm water damage.



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[rdebadts]

FYI- I believe that both lamprey and alewife predate the seaway by about a century. Those are byproducts of the Erie Canal. The seaway is responsible for almost 100 other invasives though!


The Fishin’ Physician Assistant

[LongLine]

1 week data is  good to see.  However April thru May they dropped it drastically. (under 250K)  Then Mid June thru Aug upped it to over 360K & held it there.  Graph at bottom of that link. (Guess a lot of freighters got grounded over the summer ?  How many couldn't come in under the old plan?  )   Lake is still a foot & 1/2 higher than datum.

 

As I recall, at the Nov meeting of River Planners & IJC, a topic that came up was to increase outflows & suspend shipping for remainder of year, but was shot down due to "economic impact would trickle down to US economy."   IMO, shippers lobby just trying to beat tariffs that haven't been enacted yet. Also having high water much cheaper for the shippers than dredging a couple harbors or rivers.  They obviously felt the little guy wouldn't mind paying for rebuilding his house, docks, boat house, or the ramps he uses.  2014 said no relief for losses.  Relief (from state) didn't come till way after much damage done.

 

Back on point, IMO, high water has caused more problems for the little guy whom the politicians think won't mind paying for their ineptitude.  Environmental benefit was just an opportunity seized upon by big business as an emotional selling point to their plan.   Higher water means higher volume of water; water will remain warmer longer in the year and will heat up faster due to shorter ice period; fish & prey going deeper where the little guy can't reach them, more lake affect precipitation; more erosion & less beach area; more "nasty" pollution washed off the land; more "nasty" algae & seaweed; more landowner damage by storms.

 

I'm hoping we don't see a super cold winter & stormy spring because if we do, the ice flow out the seaway will be horrendous.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongLine]

Interesting link on Great lakes shipping from last October: 

https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/improved-prospects-for-container-ships-on-the-st-lawrence-seaway

 

It's no longer bulk cargo.  For a few years we've had small container ships coming in from the ocean.  There's been a drive to make them heavier. i.e hold more containers per trip - to reduce the transport costs & get much cheaper than rail or truck from NYC. (offset tariff cost increases)  Logically, they need greater draft clearance.  Higher water level makes the narrow lane thru the river with appropriate depth a bit wider.  

 

And yes the Lamprey & alewife do pre-date the seaway.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[Lucky13]

They did drop the discharge in April and May and if my memory serves me (fairly) well, that was when the Ottawa River freshet hit and Montreal was under 10 feet of additional water, and large numbers of residents had to be evacuated.

[john1947]

Here is the latest from Washington.Seems the shippers are calling the shots to the detriment of landowners.

https://www.schumer.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/with-lake-ontario-levels-1-foot-over-seasonal-average-schumer-urges-st-lawrence-seaway-to-deter-threat-of-a-3rd-year-of-historic-flooding-including-raising-moses-saunders-dam-outflows-

[L&M]

This is dated 11/29 from the Duluth News Tribune

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/business/transportation/4794127-No-early-closure-for-St.-Lawrence-Seaway?fbclid=IwAR1vdnR0E-zvjPXSAIMT-54eskGGL7BRuHm6sRT6U16FNfwyAXPGZ4tLFyA#.XeL7nKtiWX9.facebook

[HB2]

Is anyone surprised about any of this ? 

 

Getting back, I hope the high water is good for the bottom of the food chain so there is more bait . 

 

I guess we will wait and see . 

[lost a lure]

Christmas lights are back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LongLine]

Bottom of food chain is the zooplankton.  Section 3 of the 2018 annual NYSDEC lake Ontario report goes hot & heavy (and I mean heavy duty stuff) into chemical & zooplankton biomass analysis of Lake Ontario.  Suggest a look at the graphs on pages 21 thru 25 (NYSDEC site) which show historical levels.  Looks like there was a big drop off in biomass in 2015.  Years '16, '17 & '18  show same levels or slight decrease except for Bythotrephes which now account for close to 20% of the total biomass.  (Fleas - that came in on saltwater freighters from Europe)

 

Alewives do eat fleas but unfortunately do not grow big & healthy eating them as they have very low nutritional value.  

 

I hope the alewives come back too, but IMO high water has been detrimental to the environment.  

 

Tom B.

(LongLine) 

 

 

 

 

 

[schreckstoff]

Alewives do eat fleas but unfortunately do not grow big & healthy eating them as they have very low nutritional value.  

 

The idea that LO Alewife growth is diminished by 'fleas' is not well supported by the results illustrated in Figure 8 of this report:

http://www.glfc.org/pubs/lake_committees/ontario/2019_preliminary_status_of_Lake_Ontario_Alewife.pdf 

 

 

 

[jimski2]

Seventy days opening  all thirty two turbines at the Moses Saunders Dam caused an economic loss to US and Canadian economies of two million dollars a day. After watching flood insurance expenditures to allow seaside communities to rebuild as the oceans have risen is money flushed down the toilet. Property owners on waterfront homes  will expect their decision to buy and improve their homes is a gamble they they have taken on their own and to expect the government and insurance companies to bail them out will soon come to the end. Local agencies that exist on property assessments will have to expect the loss of tax bases in their future on the gambles of their residents. For the past ten thousand years the two thousand foot high glacier that covered New York State has melted along with glacier ice and ice caps in the Arctic and Antarctic. No environmental regulations will prevent this from happening. The rising ocean water has caused huge rainfall increases resulting in floods in lakes and rivers world wide. Pressures on financial aid are tremendous now.

[LongLine]

Brian - I thought I remembered that statement about the fleas not having much nutritional value from a state of lake meeting a few years ago.  One where they showed a picture of an alewife’s stomach content of fleas that looked like a miniature bird’s nest.  Perhaps I’m wrong.  I have seen literature though that small preyfish can’t eat them because of the tails and that larger preyfish have difficulty passing them through their digestive system due to the barbed tails.  I am curious as to what the stomach contents of the alewives were, that were caught in the trawls.  Paper doesn’t really say if they were fleshy, full or empty stomachs, etc. (just total weight and count per trawl)

 

I am also curious as to whether there are chemicals in the fleas that can cause reproductive issues in the alewives just as it has been stated that alewives cause vitamin deficiencies, hence reproductive issues in the salmon.  Any thoughts? 

 

Jimski – not sure how to read your post.  Are you saying that someone who has lived near the water for many years and seen water levels controlled to within 3 feet (invested his life there; raised his kids there; paid extremely high property taxes; was forced to improve his property due to new regulations since he bought the place, etc) should simply pick up & leave?  He should do this because some inept politicians were hoodwinked by big business (trying to get a longer shipping season for heavier boats) into believing it was for the greater good?  He should have known that in the future a policy would come about that would allow water levels to fluctuate much more and damage his homestead. (?)

Please remember when they built the seaway system and locks, the gov’t resettled an entire town before they built it and yet the IJC & 2014 flatly refused any consideration for property damages along the shoreline.  In fact the IJC & 2014 ignored the concerns of the property owners as well as the boating & recreational industries.

Assessments don't go down, never have. High water & flooding just scare potential buyers and make it harder to sell a place. 

Also, please note that 10,000 years ago, the west end lake bottom was a few inches different elevation than it is now.  I guess that means all those people should move to the east end. (?)

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

[schreckstoff]

Tom, I am glad you asked and you are absolutely correct that many of the initial predictions for the impacts of eating fleas were negative. And yes, you did see pictures of preyfish stomachs with LOTS of spines in them (that still happens) . But since those predictions in early/mid 2000s we have had over 10yrs and have observed increased Alewife growth and then more variable growth. See Fig 8 in that report, the changes in weight at age are striking. When we line up the timing pattern of those ups (and downs) in growth they match up incredibly well to the annual patterns in flea abundance. Preyfish  diets also suggest when fleas are abundant the fish are eating fleas late into the fall, likely  extending their growing season relative to what was available when the fleas were not present. And while fleas are not the most energetically nutritious zooplankton, they are many times bigger then the zooplankton alewife were previously eating. One way I think of it is they are compressing the energy from small zooplankton into a larger, more efficient to eat, package. This idea that size of prey Alewife eat influencing growth has been observed and suggested in L. Mich.
 

I need to qualify that this work is still ongoing. We are double checking these patterns are consistent make sense, but the current thinking is fleas have a positive effect on LO preyfish growth.

In studying and discussing  Alewife I try not to talk in absolutes, but rather have multiple possible explanations for the observed patterns. As we get more observations and data, those data support some of those explanations more than others. This increases our confidence in out conceptual understanding how the system works, but almost never conclusively proves one idea over another. Critical to this process is to constantly reevaluate our ‘conceptual model’ for how the system is working  with different sources of data. This is one of the reasons the preyfish group has engaged anglers who are on the water a lot,to understand where their observations matches or sometimes don’t  fit our conceptual understanding. Where they don’t fit is where we often learn new things. 

Tom thanks for asking, my previous reply should not have been so short and definitely should have acknowledged how our thinking on fleas has changed. Time For me to stop with my science blather and go watch some internet deer hunting videos.

bw

[jimski2]

Today Lake Michigan Homes will be falling into the water as nine foot waves wash out the sand dunes the homes are built on. The demolition and cleanup costs are being burdened on the homeowners.


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[HB2]

So what does that have to do with the price of tea in China ? 

16 minutes ago, jimski2 said:

Today Lake Michigan Homes will be falling into the water as nine foot waves wash out the sand dunes the homes are built on. The demolition and cleanup costs are being burdened on the homeowners.


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 Did not know they regulated Lake Mich 

 

There are homes that have fallen  off the eroding bluffs at Fair Haven . Be for 2014 

 

At some point , some of us have to be responsible for where we decide to build. . And ask ourselves what could happen . 

[rolmops]

The real reason for the exceptional high water is the huge amount of rainfall that fell in the upper great lakes area over the last few years. It takes about 2 years for that water to travel from lake Superior all the way down down to Lake Ontario. It will take another one or two years for that water to make it here, so the high levels will stay with us for another one or two years even with the maximum possible water allowed to go out. Commercial interest may have something to do with it but not very much. The main culprit is the weather that the North West of the USA has seen in the last few years and the time it takes for that incredible amount of water to make it here. Can you recognize climate change when you see it? We are in the middle of it and chances are that it will get worse. My suggestion is to get rid of lake property before the lake will get rid of it.

[jimski2]

The northern waters of the oceans have warmed considerably. Salmon on the west coast have lost spawning streams . Capelin in Iceland have moved hundreds of miles north . The evaporation rates of this water have increased rainfalls everywhere resulting in record floods and snowfalls . Things we have now will be the new normal so we must deal with things.


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