Is there hope ?

[Frogger]

My bad, I didn’t realize it will back to normal in 2 years like it always has been......


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[iiwhistlerii]

My bad, I didn’t realize it will back to normal in 2 years like it always has been......


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Theres been a 20 year high and low cycle since they've kept records. No reason to believe that all of a sudden it's going to be high forever now.

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[iiwhistlerii]

Amazing how fast people forget...  It was just a few years ago marinas were so low many docks were unusable.  We were all complaining about how they were giving all the water away to the middle east and the lakes were drying up.  Boats bottoming out as they entered harbors, constant complaints that everything needed to be re-dredged.    Now here we are 8 years later with every great lake as high as we've ever seen.  Stop buying into the world is ending scenarios the media is constantly selling. This too shall pass, we will have a few acceptable years with "normal" conditions before the next dry spell where we can all discuss how the lakes are drying up and the ijc let out too much water because plan 2014 allows them to let out more than previous plans and now the permanent boat slip and docks I built with poor designs in 2019 are all useless.  Just hope for a dry year.

[Gill-T]

Here is what some other Canadians think. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/protesters-blame-new-great-lakes-plan-for-floods-on-lake-ontario-ottawa-river/amp

 

Jimski, please don’t comment. 

[iiwhistlerii]

28 minutes ago, Gill-T said:

Here is what some other Canadians think. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/protesters-blame-new-great-lakes-plan-for-floods-on-lake-ontario-ottawa-river/amp

 

Jimski, please don’t comment. 

Did you read the article?  I did back in November when it came out.  They are complaining about the high flows coming through the lower st. Lawrence and blaming them for having to hold back the Ottawa at the dams as to not wipe out Montreal.  So they are complaining about the high flows below the dams while we complain every single time that flow is slowed.  When they talk about keeping the st. Lawrence high for shipping they are talking about BELOW THE DAM for port of Montreal.  That involves letting out more water.  Everyone wants to blame 2014 but one side blames for 1 reason and the other for a different reason and they only thing anyone can agree on is that lake ontario is too damn high and it's all the IJCs fault.  

[Gill-T]

Right, high flows blowing out thru the gates due to high water conditions ABOVE and BELOW the dam. The high conditions above the dam due to changes in regulations- this is what is broken. The timing of the water release.  The Moses Saunders Dam could have held back water and potentially lessened flooding in Montreal and create an opportunity for Ottawa water control measures to release more water into the St Lawrence and lessen their flooding. The draw down on Ontario that didn’t happen per usual created zero wiggle room for water level managers to reduce the effect of the 100 year flooding occurring in 2017 and ‘19.  I don’t understand the thinking of the IJC agreement. If we are to believe in global warming is raising sea levels, there will be growing resistance to water leaving the St Lawrence estuary. Montreal flooding will continue to be a problem. The draw down of Lake Ontario in the fall needs to be increased to aid flooding mitigation in the spring not decreased. 

[GAMBLER]

Why cut back outflows starting on August 21st if Montreal wasn't flooding, the Ottawa wasn't flooding and ice was not forming.  It is simple, shipping.  Safer travel for ships yet the lake continues to be way too high.  They dealt with higher flows all summer why not keep it at high outflows until flooding occurs or ice is close to forming.  Yes there was high precipitation, higher upper great lakes, but better management could have us going into winter with a lower Lake Ontario and a better chance of less flooding next year. 

[iiwhistlerii]

2 hours ago, GAMBLER said:

Why cut back outflows starting on August 21st if Montreal wasn't flooding, the Ottawa wasn't flooding and ice was not forming.  It is simple, shipping.  Safer travel for ships yet the lake continues to be way too high.  They dealt with higher flows all summer why not keep it at high outflows until flooding occurs or ice is close to forming.  Yes there was high precipitation, higher upper great lakes, but better management could have us going into winter with a lower Lake Ontario and a better chance of less flooding next year. 

It doesnt work that way.  By august 21st the lake was down 2 feet from where it high point.

 

3 hours ago, Gill-T said:

Right, high flows blowing out thru the gates due to high water conditions ABOVE and BELOW the dam. The high conditions above the dam due to changes in regulations- this is what is broken. The timing of the water release.  The Moses Saunders Dam could have held back water and potentially lessened flooding in Montreal and create an opportunity for Ottawa water control measures to release more water into the St Lawrence and lessen their flooding. The draw down on Ontario that didn’t happen per usual created zero wiggle room for water level managers to reduce the effect of the 100 year flooding occurring in 2017 and ‘19.  I don’t understand the thinking of the IJC agreement. If we are to believe in global warming is raising sea levels, there will be growing resistance to water leaving the St Lawrence estuary. Montreal flooding will continue to be a problem. The draw down of Lake Ontario in the fall needs to be increased to aid flooding mitigation in the spring not decreased. 

Please find me where this winter draw down that always happens didnt happen in 17, 18 or 19.  Please please please use data to find me when they held in more water than any of the prior 10+ years under 2014.  Oh yea, u wont, because they let out more, even during winter months.  You guys act like it's all a man made act that controls this flow.  When the lake is 40 inches high it's easy to reach numbers like 10,400.  When it's only 10 inches over avg like it is now you arent going to get those numbers no matter what you do.  The water isnt there to flow at that rate.  That's why it decreases as summer goes on and into fall.  As the lake drops flow drops.  Its nature and physics at work.  When they do raise flows to an unnatural level lake st. Lawrence drops above the dam because flow isnt fast enough from lake ontario to keep it full.  That's why flows are adjusted as they are and even adjusted daily to account for wind, ice, etc.  Feel free to look at the data from the last 20 years of outflows and it helps to understand to the hows and whys.  It isnt a faucet attached to a dam face holding back lake ontario, it's is a series flood control reservoirs along a dredged river that has constantly fluctuating flow levels.  

[chinook35]

Please find me where this winter draw down that always happens didnt happen in 17, 18 or 19.  Please please please use data to find me when they held in more water than any of the prior 10+ years under 2014.  Oh yea, u wont, because they let out more, even during winter months.  You guys act like it's all a man made act that controls this flow.  When the lake is 40 inches high it's easy to reach numbers like 10,400.  When it's only 10 inches over avg like it is now you arent going to get those numbers no matter what you do.  The water isnt there to flow at that rate.  That's why it decreases as summer goes on and into fall.  As the lake drops flow drops.  Its nature and physics at work.  When they do raise flows to an unnatural level lake st. Lawrence drops above the dam because flow isnt fast enough from lake ontario to keep it full.  That's why flows are adjusted as they are and even adjusted daily to account for wind, ice, etc.  Feel free to look at the data from the last 20 years of outflows and it helps to understand to the hows and whys.  It isnt a faucet attached to a dam face holding back lake ontario, it's is a series flood control reservoirs along a dredged river that has constantly fluctuating flow levels.  

The water flowing into LO from the upper lakes is at a higher rate than normal because of high levels in those lakes ( your words ). The outflow must be maintained high to allow for the increased volume from upstream. Or we will have more flooding in the spring


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[iiwhistlerii]

The water flowing into LO from the upper lakes is at a higher rate than normal because of high levels in those lakes ( your words ). The outflow must be maintained high to allow for the increased volume from upstream. Or we will have more flooding in the spring


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As it has been maintained. The lake has dropped incredibly. Erie is still 30 inches over avg and Ontario is only 10 inches higher than normal. Wouldnt that tell you we are more than "maintaining".

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[iiwhistlerii]

Typical december flows would be in the 6000's.  Maybe the low 7s.  Today we are still flowing at over 8600.  Yes we are down from the 10,400 raging flows of summer but 8600 is still incredibly high especially for December.  This is the part people are failing to realize or refusing to acknowledge.

[Gill-T]

36 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

As it has been maintained. The lake has dropped incredibly. Erie is still 30 inches over avg and Ontario is only 10 inches higher than normal. Wouldnt that tell you we are more than "maintaining".

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You keep using the term “we” in referencing water outflows. For the benefit of full disclosure, are you part of the IJC board?  

[HB2]

So the simple question now has been answered . 

 

We are not at max outflow now , 8600 from 10,400. 

 

 Now,  " WE" would like to know why that is . 

 

Especially since "WE" all know the amount of water coming at us from upstream . I 

[salmoseine]

48 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

As it has been maintained. The lake has dropped incredibly. Erie is still 30 inches over avg and Ontario is only 10 inches higher than normal. Wouldnt that tell you we are more than "maintaining".

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"Ontario is only 10 inches higher than normal". What data are you using...?  Is the US Army Corps of Engineers data invalid, ? Their most recent data indicates that Ontario is currently 1.54 feet above the Long Term Avg => 18.5 inches. Ate you using some new norma, ? Please explain...

[GAMBLER]

57 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

It doesnt work that way.  By august 21st the lake was down 2 feet from where it high point.

 

 

It doesn't work that way because the plan is flawed.  There is no excuse to not let excess water out when possible when we have the Niagara dumping more water in than normal and Lake Ontario way above average.  This is peoples frustration with the IJC and plan 2014.  They are not doing ALL they can to minimize flooding. 

[iiwhistlerii]

Sorry I misspoke.  10 inches over 2018 december.  Correct we are 18 over long term avg.  We will be 20 after next month I bet.  Point is we went from the same level over avg as erie to 12" lower.  We are dropping much faster than Erie currently thanks to increased flows.

[iiwhistlerii]

Just now, GAMBLER said:

It doesn't work that way because the plan is flawed.  There is no excuse to not let excess water out when possible when we have the Niagara dumping more water in than normal and Lake Ontario way above average.  This is peoples frustration with the IJC and plan 2014.  They are not doing ALL they can to minimize flooding. 

But none of that has to do with 2014.  None of this has been altered by 2014s parameters because the water has been too high to allow them to take effect since its come into play.  2014 allows for lower winter water levels on lake Ontario.  It actually has parameters that allow us to let more water out than they ever did previously.  Currently we are letting out more than any of us have ever seen in the month of December.  With all this happening we still are somehow placing blame on 2014.  It's just not the case.  All i keep reading is "they arent doing all they can do".  Please find me a time in history when they have done more, let out more or kept flows high longer.

 

 You all act like I have a horse in the race or money to be made from 2014.  I could care less in the end but the facts lead to the same conclusion no matter how u look at it.  All the great lakes are at record or near record levels, so are we and that's no coincidence caused by a water management plan.

[whaler1]

Going to be pretty ugly this spring and summer. No doubt about that.
With 35 plus years of watching levels with my eyes, not all these stupid charts, it’s going to be awful.


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[iiwhistlerii]

Just now, whaler1 said:

Going to be pretty ugly this spring and summer. No doubt about that.
With 35 plus years of watching levels with my eyes, not all these stupid charts, it’s going to be awful.


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Everybody said the same in 2018.  Wet spring never came and we were fine.  It all comes down to snow melt and precipitation.

[whaler1]

No it doesn’t. It comes down to letting as much out as you can, as early as possible in order to be able to accept the rain and melt you are talking about.

I’m done with this thread.
Hope you’re right.


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[iiwhistlerii]

17 minutes ago, HB2 said:

So the simple question now has been answered . 

 

We are not at max outflow now , 8600 from 10,400. 

 

 Now,  " WE" would like to know why that is . 

 

Especially since "WE" all know the amount of water coming at us from upstream . I 

Because water is no longer high enough to keep up a flow rate of 10,400.  As a river drops flow decreases.  If they did open up the long saulte and allow water to flow over it like they did this summer when the water was 2 feet higher the water in Lake St. Lawrence would drop drastically because the st Lawrence between lake ontario and ogdensburg isnt providing the same amount of water it was during summer peak levels.  Once again that number is calculated based on water passing through the moses sauders dam, water spilling over the long sault spillway, and the massena and Raisin river bypasses.

 

It's a non stop delicate balance with those reservoirs there.  Hell an east wind forces them to reduce flows or lake st. Lawrence will drop and lake st. Louis will rise, a west wind had the opposite effect.  The goal is to keep the river stable while draining the lake as fast as possible.  10, 400 isnt possible with the current lake level.  We dont have enough "pressure" anymore to sustain that flow.  It really is flowing out as fast as possible right now and they have no reason to do otherwise.  Zero benefit to holding back water right now.

[iiwhistlerii]

You keep using the term “we” in referencing water outflows. For the benefit of full disclosure, are you part of the IJC board?  

We as a reference to those living on Lake Ontario. I can see the lake from my mailbox at the end of my driveway.

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[iiwhistlerii]

No it doesn’t. It comes down to letting as much out as you can, as early as possible in order to be able to accept the rain and melt you are talking about.

I’m done with this thread.
Hope you’re right.


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It still has to make it's way down the river. Lake Eries flow into lake Ontario through the Niagara right now is what 7000? We continue to push it out faster than it's coming in, hell faster than it's ever been done in history and it's still not enough to convince you this isnt being done purposefully. Ur right, let's just kick it up to 10, 400 and watch lake st. Lawrence drop 4 feet in a day and then the next day flow will be 5,100. That makes sence.

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[lost a lure]

"Because water is no longer high enough to keep up a flow rate of 10,400.  As a river drops flow decreases.  If they did open up the long saulte and allow water to flow over it like they did this summer when the water was 2 feet higher the water in Lake St. Lawrence would drop drastically because the st Lawrence between lake ontario and ogdensburg isnt providing the same amount of water it was during summer peak levels."

 

What about increasing the flow through the Iroquois Dam?

[Gill-T]

28 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

We as a reference to those living on Lake Ontario. I can see the lake from my mailbox at the end of my driveway.

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Good thing you are on higher ground.