Is there hope ?

[iiwhistlerii]

4 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

"Because water is no longer high enough to keep up a flow rate of 10,400.  As a river drops flow decreases.  If they did open up the long saulte and allow water to flow over it like they did this summer when the water was 2 feet higher the water in Lake St. Lawrence would drop drastically because the st Lawrence between lake ontario and ogdensburg isnt providing the same amount of water it was during summer peak levels."

 

What about increasing the flow through the Iroquois Dam?

 It doesnt slow flow, the neck down in the river does in that portion of the river.  So the seaway is separated by a series of "lakes".  Basically reservoirs created by the dredging and daming of the river.  When lake ontario was all the way up this spring and summer we couldnt let the water out fast enough to drop the "reservoir" above the massena dams.  Once it started to drop Lake ontario and the river didnt feed the uppermost lake fast enough to maintain 10,400, which was an all time record for a sustained flow.  When lake st. Lawrence began to drop faster than it was being fed they reduced natural flow from lake ontario the flows at the massena dams had to be reduced to keep it all in balance.  On the same note when lake st. Francis or lake st. Louis begin to rise they back off how much they let through from up above.  It's all effected by winds, rain, water level, every environmental factor you can think of.  That's why you can watch the flows constantly being adjusted.  Just watch what happens after sustained heavy west winds, flows will increase to account for the increased water pushed eastward by the rising waters caused by the siech on lake ontario.

[Captain Carl Bish]

On 11/26/2019 at 4:35 PM, GAMBLER said:

Let me see what I can do at work. I should be able to run the data for turbidity at our intake and average it compared to past years. I would be interested to see what it shows.


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Brian, you would have to also separate out the biotic vs abiotic matter as turbidity could just be from your neighbors lawns being eroded into the lake.  Of course as the septic systems are in those lawns no doubt nutrients are being added.  At the end of the day it is a hefty price to pay for better salmon fishing!

[chinook35]

 
Brian, you would have to also separate out the biotic vs abiotic matter as turbidity could just be from your neighbors lawns being eroded into the lake.  Of course as the septic systems are in those lawns no doubt nutrients are being added.  At the end of the day it is a hefty price to pay for better salmon fishing!

[emoji848]. Maybe it will make the LT ( oil cans ) taste better


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[Captain Carl Bish]

Just now, chinook35 said:

. Maybe it will make the LT ( oil cans ) taste better


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I found that BUTTER makes those LT's taste better!!

[chinook35]

I found that BUTTER makes those LT's taste better!!

Butter would make lamprey taste good. [emoji13]


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[lost a lure]

38 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

 It doesnt slow flow, the neck down in the river does in that portion of the river.  So the seaway is separated by a series of "lakes".  Basically reservoirs created by the dredging and daming of the river.  When lake ontario was all the way up this spring and summer we couldnt let the water out fast enough to drop the "reservoir" above the massena dams.  Once it started to drop Lake ontario and the river didnt feed the uppermost lake fast enough to maintain 10,400, which was an all time record for a sustained flow.  When lake st. Lawrence began to drop faster than it was being fed they reduced natural flow from lake ontario the flows at the massena dams had to be reduced to keep it all in balance.  On the same note when lake st. Francis or lake st. Louis begin to rise they back off how much they let through from up above.  It's all effected by winds, rain, water level, every environmental factor you can think of.  That's why you can watch the flows constantly being adjusted.  Just watch what happens after sustained heavy west winds, flows will increase to account for the increased water pushed eastward by the rising waters caused by the siech on lake ontario.

 

Do you have any "data" to back that statement up about the Iroquois Dam not controlling the flow? Now that the winds are from the Northeast flow should be able to be increased.

[iiwhistlerii]

9 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

 

Do you have any "data" to back that statement up about the Iroquois Dam not controlling the flow? Now that the winds are from the Northeast flow should be able to be increased.

The iroquois dam certainly does "control flow".  That's what it's there for, but it's the bottleneck effect of the river that causes lake st. Lawrence to drop when it does even while the flood gates at iroquois are wide open.  That's why Iroquois was built in the first place was a flood control measure after they excavated that portion of the river to eliminate a major portion of the bottleneck.   Lake St. Lawrence drops drastically quite often even with everything above it flowing freely.  A simple wind change can slow the river enough to drop Lake. St. Lawrence multiple feet in a day if flows at Massena arent adjusted accordingly. 

 

 Northeast winds slow the current and push water away from the river, how would you see that as a trigger to increase flow?

[lost a lure]

38 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

The iroquois dam certainly does "control flow".  That's what it's there for, but it's the bottleneck effect of the river that causes lake st. Lawrence to drop when it does even while the flood gates at iroquois are wide open.  That's why Iroquois was built in the first place was a flood control measure after they excavated that portion of the river to eliminate a major portion of the bottleneck.   Lake St. Lawrence drops drastically quite often even with everything above it flowing freely.  A simple wind change can slow the river enough to drop Lake. St. Lawrence multiple feet in a day if flows at Massena arent adjusted accordingly. 

 

 Northeast winds slow the current and push water away from the river, how would you see that as a trigger to increase flow?

So you claim the Iroquois Dam does not slow the flow but controls the flow. 

[iiwhistlerii]

I'm saying it's not the reason the water level drops on lake at. Lawrence and even when every single gate is wide open as they usually are on a typical year it still happens.  Even with those flood control gates in the elevated position they can let water out at massena faster than it can make it through the bottleneck.  The flood gates were closed at iroquois most of the summer and massena still flowed at 10,400.  Gates are open again now and flows are actually lower.  Those gates are another tool to prevent flooding but they are not currently what effecting water levels.  They are just a damage control in a way, usually you can drive the boat right under the gates the whole season.  It's not a big elevation drop dam like the ones in Massena.  You can look on youtube and check out how the iroquois flood gates work if you need a better understanding.  

Edited December 30, 2019 by iiwhistlerii

[lost a lure]

I understand how the Iroquois Dam operates. Do you have any data on the flow through the dam?

[iiwhistlerii]

They dont measure flow through the iroquois dam that I know of.  They measure water levels on lake st. Lawrence and try to keep them stable.  Gates are either open or closed and the water that passes through it is measured by how high Lake st Lawrence gets.  For years they pretty much never closed those gates that I know of, in fact the dam itself is considered "closed" because it isn't needed for any sort of constant regulation..  In 2017 they were closed for the entire summer to slow flow because with them open Lake st. Lawrence was raising too high especially around waddington where the river narrows around the island and tends to flood.  I know the gates were open in September this year when I was there but my guess is they were closed from april until atleast August with the water levels that we had.  With current water levels the gates wouldnt be needed unless they were expecting an ice jam somewhere.

[LongLine]

The years 2000 thru 2014 were a period where the upper lakes were consistently at fairly low historical levels. (Check out iiwh's graph previously posted) For these years, I agree that seaway control did lower the outflows in December as he stated. i.e to the 6-7K range.  However if you go back to where they were not at consistently low levels, they did not lower the outflows of Lake Ontario.  Specifically years, '67, 72, 77, 79, 81, 83, 85, 86 & 96 they did not significantly lower the outflows in December.

(according to what the seaway control reported to Army Corps)

 

 

 

:(They dropped this one in Jan '78)

 

 

 

 

 

 

For reference 300,000 cuft/s = 8,500cuM/s

 

 

Plan 2014 was developed based on the years 2000-2014.  If they had looked at any of the outflow data prior to that, they would have seen that historically the increase in outflow should begin in March (as shown above) and not a drastic dip in April-June nor begin a decrease in Sept as shown below on the 2019 outflow graph.

 

 

That 2 month drop (Apr-Jun) never should of happened.  

 

Saying that outflow can't be increased because there is not enough water supply is bogus.  Water level wasn't as high back in '86, yet they kept the flow pretty close to 340K from May thru December that year.

 

As to the 20yr cycle - That's probably pretty close on the upper lakes.  But it hasn't been true for Ontario. (again look at iiWh's previously posted graph for Lake O)

 

 

 

[RiggerRob]

This summer, I was asked at the boat launch ramp what I thought was the reason the water in Lake Ontario was held back by the dams in Quebec and the water levels increased.  I said I thought it was because of hydro, low water levels at marina's and shipping.  I was then told to think about a master plan put in place to legalize the diversion of fresh water from the Great Lakes to flush out the Mississippi river basin.  I was then told to sit back and watch if future proves past. 

[iiwhistlerii]

The years 2000 thru 2014 were a period where the upper lakes were consistently at fairly low historical levels. (Check out iiwh's graph previously posted) For these years, I agree that seaway control did lower the outflows in December as he stated. i.e to the 6-7K range.  However if you go back to where they were not at consistently low levels, they did not lower the outflows of Lake Ontario.  Specifically years, '67, 72, 77, 79, 81, 83, 85, 86 & 96 they did not significantly lower the outflows in December.
(according to what the seaway control reported to Army Corps)
 

 

 

:(They dropped this one in Jan '78)

 
 

 


 

 

 
For reference 300,000 cuft/s = 8,500cuM/s
 
 
Plan 2014 was developed based on the years 2000-2014.  If they had looked at any of the outflow data prior to that, they would have seen that historically the increase in outflow should begin in March (as shown above) and not a drastic dip in April-June nor begin a decrease in Sept as shown below on the 2019 outflow graph.
 

 
That 2 month drop (Apr-Jun) never should of happened.  
 
Saying that outflow can't be increased because there is not enough water supply is bogus.  Water level wasn't as high back in '86, yet they kept the flow pretty close to 340K from May thru December that year.
 
As to the 20yr cycle - That's probably pretty close on the upper lakes.  But it hasn't been true for Ontario. (again look at iiWh's previously posted graph for Lake O)
 
 
 

That april and may drop was because of the conditions on the Ottawa. As soon as the Ottawa was under control they put the flows back up right along with the receding water and kept it as high as possible. That was an emergency flow reduction and had nothing to do with 2014. Why are we even debating that at this point. As for reducing flows in december? Again we reduced from record flows to still above normal flows. Compare the actual numbers. We are still letting out more water right now than any of those years.

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[iiwhistlerii]

Take the time to look at all the graphs you just posted. Almost always flowing under 300,000. We were at almost 370,000 all summer long and even now are above 300,000. The current winter flow reduced output is still higher than the high flows just about every graph shown. Flows are up, not down and have been for 3 years outside of the 2017 and 2019 spring flooding on the Ottawa that couldnt be prevented. Remember increasing flows enough to drop ontario an inch in a week during those events would have raised the water level a foot in Montreal. It was the lesser of 2 evils and undoubtedly cost us this spring but nothing could be done.

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[lost a lure]

32 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

They dont measure flow through the iroquois dam that I know of.  They measure water levels on lake st. Lawrence and try to keep them stable.  Gates are either open or closed and the water that passes through it is measured by how high Lake st Lawrence gets.  For years they pretty much never closed those gates that I know of, in fact the dam itself is considered "closed" because it isn't needed for any sort of constant regulation..  In 2017 they were closed for the entire summer to slow flow because with them open Lake st. Lawrence was raising too high especially around waddington where the river narrows around the island and tends to flood.  I know the gates were open in September this year when I was there but my guess is they were closed from april until atleast August with the water levels that we had.  With current water levels the gates wouldnt be needed unless they were expecting an ice jam somewhere.

 

The gates at Iroquois have been lowered at various times over the years during the summer. I have been there at the dam when all of the gates were lowered and the water level on the upper St. Lawrence was high. I have been there when the two gates were open for small craft and the upper river was high and also low. Controlling the level of Lake St. Lawrence affects the level of the upper St. Lawrence. I'm not digging through the old polaroid pictures to prove it. 

[iiwhistlerii]

 
The gates at Iroquois have been lowered at various times over the years during the summer. I have been there at the dam when all of the gates were lowered and the water level on the upper St. Lawrence was high. I have been there when the two gates were open for small craft and the upper river was high and also low. Controlling the level of Lake St. Lawrence affects the level of the upper St. Lawrence. I'm not digging through the old polaroid pictures to prove it. 

2017 and 2019 they were closed the entire summer from april on. No personal watercraft was able to pass through and everyone had to use the locks. I'd assume anytime winds are stiff from the sw theyd close them to prevent a seich effect. Obviously they are there for a reason but I can remember many many times when none were closed in the past. I can remember being there during October many times where none of them were closed. Even when all closed or all open lake st. Lawrence still experiences extreme lows due to the narrowing of the river there and the delayed effect it creates.

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[LongLine]

Point being that it was stated that outflows are always lowered in Dec.  That's a bogus claim as shown in '86 graph where outflows were kept high most of the year and other graphs show no significant drop in Dec outflows (in fact some increase) yet the water level was nowhere near what 2017-2019 was.  Another look at graphs shows they let considerable more water out at end of year in anticipation of more inflow to occur.  In 96, 86, 85, 81, they were over the 300K level, and significantly over in '86.  Yet in these years there wasn't nearly the high water level in Lake Ontario nor on the Ottawa River. This also shows outflow can be high with significantly less water supply.  The current outflow is in a much less proportion to water level than it was in those shown years. 

 

It has been stated that they're letting out more water now, except from that in '86, for which the homeowners are grateful, however they could let out a lot more as evidenced particularly by '86.  Obviously the '17-19 concern was the level of the Ottawa with very little concern over the level of Ontario or the upper lakes which we have been reminded multiple times that they are at very high levels.  If the concern was the high levels in the upper lakes then that would dictate that even greater outflow would occur now.

 

The IJC was charged by treaty to control the outflow, yet they allowed the Iroquois to be closed for those 2 high summers.  It obviously wasn't closed in '86.  Why closed in '17-19? easy - shipping.  During high water, extra tugs are required to help the freighters maneuver.  Schumer's '19 letter to the Control board asked that outflows be increased and tugs be re-instated and they said no.   (tugs cost money)  IJC meeting minutes show discussion of closing shipping for November & December, yet they said no as economic loss to shipping would be great.  Again, too bad for homeowners and no concern whatsoever over high water on the upper lakes.  

 

It has been claimed that more water can't be let out due to water supply and surges.  There is plenty of water supply (lake is high) and they wouldn't have had surges if they had kept the flow going through the Iroquois.  The Niagara hasn't slowed down.  Why increase outflow now?   The NYSDEC is going after them in court concerning damages to the riparian areas both above & below the control structures.  IJC press release was issued 2 weeks after the formal filing by the NYSAG on behalf of the NYSDEC.

 

20 year cycles have been claimed and that homeowners & boaters should wait two years for low water, yet planners ignored 20 year cycles on the Upper lakes.  (20 year cycles began 2016-2017 for the upper lakes.) That plan was designed based on data from 2000-2012 which was a period of relative low water on the upper lakes, even though climatology experts were warning about el nino, melting icebergs and more precipitation at the time.  Water will not go down to a low low level in two years as the IJC has the mandate to protect international commerce  on the St Lawrence.  As soon as we have a period of dry weather, they'll reduce the outflow & get the lake back up real quick.

 

It has been claimed that winds from the SW have an effect on water level.  Yes they do.  Another fact that the designers ignored: The prevailing winds in the affected area are from the SW.  Storms did occur in the fall & spring of the above graphed years, yet outflows were not dropped significantly due to seiche fears. 

 

Anyone remember Feb 24th 2019?

 

 

Pretty strong wind.    Cape Vincent water level went up tremendously and almost instantaneously.  What did Seaway control do?

 

 

 

It has been claimed that exceptions to outflow levels have been granted.  (IJC &SLSCB press releases)  IMO, even more reason why 2014 should be abandoned.  

 

Why debate it now?  Thank you to all for the eloquent & in depth explanations on waterflow & water levels, however the reasons put forth on why the waterflow are froth with inadequacies, side stepping and unanswered questions.  ( I still haven't seen an answer to Gambler's question)

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

WaveHeight6_buf.bmp

[Bustersit]

Insert mic drop emoji here. Well done sir.

[iiwhistlerii]

Tom the fact that your complaining about the iroquois being closed all summer just solidifies that you have no intention to learn how the system works or why they make the choices they do.  We arent following 2014 peramiters and havent yet.  If we were flows would be much lower right now.  They are higher than they've ever been for this time of year and have been that way for years.  It doesnt matter what data or facts are shown.  When a mind is made up facts dont matter.  There are a series of videos explaining how the system works that can be found online.  I'm tired of debunking shotty ideas and opinions with actual facts and being shown graphs that when actually looked at do nothing but support what I've been saying all along.  This video will explain how the iroquois helps to control flooding on the st Lawrence.  There is another that will explain how it's used for ice.  You complain it was closed the whole summer but outflow was at maximum that entire time so what are u actually complaining about.  

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

Also how do u fail to acknowledge 20 year cycles on lake Ontario??  Take a look at ur own graphs!  You are blind to what doesnt support your argument.  Looking at the chart from 1918-2016 to can clearly see a 20 year cycle.  Narrowing it down to just 1958 until present u can still see 5 year high water fluctuations just about every 20 years.  Late 50s, mid to late 70s, mid to late 90s and present all share the highest water points on the graphs.  The fact that u chose not to see or acknowledge that is just sad.  Again I'll keep posting facts and you can respond by twisting data and ignoring things that dont support ur arugment.

[iiwhistlerii]

Let's take a look at this horrible argument...  you are complaining flows were not decreased from an extreme sw wind.  Why the hell would flows decrease when the river is flowing harder?  SW wind pushes more water down the river and naturally increases flow.  The ijc doesnt have to do a thing, they dont 100% control the flow level of the river.  A stiff sw speeds it up just as a stiff NE slows it down.  Let me explain this 1 more time.

  Big SW wind....  see the image u posted.  Stiff winds and storm surge feb 24s.  Ok now look inside the area I circled purple and watch what happens...  Flow goes up!!!   Its magic!!   

 

[lost a lure]

Tom the fact that your complaining about the iroquois being closed all summer just solidifies that you have no intention to learn how the system works or why they make the choices they do.  We arent following 2014 peramiters and havent yet.  If we were flows would be much lower right now.  They are higher than they've ever been for this time of year and have been that way for years.  It doesnt matter what data or facts are shown.  When a mind is made up facts dont matter.  There are a series of videos explaining how the system works that can be found online.  I'm tired of debunking shotty ideas and opinions with actual facts and being shown graphs that when actually looked at do nothing but support what I've been saying all along.  This video will explain how the iroquois helps to control flooding on the st Lawrence.  There is another that will explain how it's used for ice.  You complain it was closed the whole summer but outflow was at maximum that entire time so what are u actually complaining about.  
 
[/url]  

IJC propaganda video

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[iiwhistlerii]

2 minutes ago, lost a lure said:

IJC propaganda video

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Yea from 6 years ago when you still loved and trusted the IJC.  

[Frogger]

I think you Tom B. for taking the time to explain that. Breath of fresh air really for me. ( especially Gamblers question that nobody has answered).


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