Is there hope ?

[iiwhistlerii]

I just went back and read through to find Gamblers question.   Sorry I had missed it before.   Why did the ijc reduce flow in august?   The answer is pretty obvious.  Everyone keeps making the claim that the outflow number is 100% determined by the ijc.  You keep leaving out the environmental factors that also calculate into that flow number.  The number 1 factor being water level and how much water is actually coming down the river.  When the lake was at record levels we had record flow.  Just like when erie is at its highest the Niagara flows the hardest.  When Ontario is 40 inches higher than normal the st Lawrence obviously flows harder and pushes more water than when its 20 inches over normal.  So why did flow decrease?  Because water levels decreased.  Basically flows dropped from all time record highs to previous record highs.  Not much of a reduction really.   Now let's look at the actual reduction.  We are still today pushing out more water than any other time in history.  2014 calls for flows in the 7000s right now with its peramiters and the previous plan was actually less than that as it reduced winter flow more than 2014 does.   October 13th is the only real day flows were something anybody could consider low and my guess is there was heavy ne winds that day that reduced flow of the river.  When those winds stopped, the flow increased.

[iiwhistlerii]

You can see where flows were reduced to establish safe ice this month and now are being pushed back up with the warm up.  Theres no conspiracy to any of this it's all exactly how its always been done and all well above the 2014 peramiters because of the high water.  Expect flows to be reduced when ice begins to form again and then brought back up when safe ice is established.  It's the same process they've done every year for 60 years.

Edited December 30, 2019 by iiwhistlerii

[GAMBLER]

The thing being ignored is the board members and there vested interests. There are board members with vested interest in shipping and electricity production. I guarantee, more cod have been done but was not due to vested interests. It takes a unanimous vote to make changes with the board.


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[iiwhistlerii]

The thing being ignored is the board members and there vested interests. There are board members with vested interest in shipping and electricity production. I guarantee, more cod have been done but was not due to vested interests. It takes a unanimous vote to make changes with the board.


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Gambler how does that argument apply in this situation tho? Yes 2014 will indeed help power production and extend shipping. What is going on now has nothing to do with 2014 and isnt helping either. 2014 allows them to let lake ontario higher each summer, it has higher trigger points. Problem is weve been over those trigger points since it's been implemented so it hasn't come into play yet. It also allows the lake to get lower during the winter before the trigger points to cut flows come into play. Again, non factor so far. 2014 helps shipping and power production by allowing them to not have to cut flows ever. With 2 inches more water in the lake during summer and allowing it to drain 2 inches lower each winter the hope is that they wont have situations where they have to cut flows in the fall that cause the lower st. Lawrence to drop to a level where it's too low for the large ships using port of Montreal and where they are losing money due to less power production. None of this has come into play in the last 3 years.

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[iiwhistlerii]

In the past the area below the dam has dropped so low that many boat ramps arent even usable. Theres been a few falls in the past where I'm waiting at the ramp for am power production to begin so the water will rise at Hawkins point and I can launch my boat. 2014 was meant to stabilize all this, more natural highs and lows above the dam and more stable water below. It may work amazingly once it actually gets a chance to function as designed. What weve see. In the last 3 years has absolutely nothing to do with 2014 as its peramiters and set flows have yet to be touched.

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[GAMBLER]

In 2017 there were talks about shutting down shipping to let more water out. It was turned down by the board because it would cost huge $. More is possible but (shipping) $$$ rules.


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[chinook35]

In the past the area below the dam has dropped so low that many boat ramps arent even usable. Theres been a few falls in the past where I'm waiting at the ramp for am power production to begin so the water will rise at Hawkins point and I can launch my boat. 2014 was meant to stabilize all this, more natural highs and lows above the dam and more stable water below. It may work amazingly once it actually gets a chance to function as designed. What weve see. In the last 3 years has absolutely nothing to do with 2014 as its peramiters and set flows have yet to be touched.

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As previously stated. All I have is my extensive experiences on LO and particularly the Sandy Pond area. We knew that p2014 was going to be trouble. And we were right. Before this conspiracy was adopted , we knew that by the end of Aug or early Sept. it was time to pull the boats , as the slips were getting too shallow. Boat launches needs all of the ramp to launch. Our camp on S Sandy , where normally it was waist deep , was dry. It was the norm and planned for every year. Till now. This is year after year for 50 plus years. You can say all you want , the high water is not due to IJC , St Lawrence seaway authority and p2014. The evidence says differently


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[iiwhistlerii]

As previously stated. All I have is my extensive experiences on LO and particularly the Sandy Pond area. We knew that p2014 was going to be trouble. And we were right. Before this conspiracy was adopted , we knew that by the end of Aug or early Sept. it was time to pull the boats , as the slips were getting too shallow. Boat launches needs all of the ramp to launch. Our camp on S Sandy , where normally it was waist deep , was dry. It was the norm and planned for every year. Till now. This is year after year for 50 plus years. You can say all you want , the high water is not due to IJC , St Lawrence seaway authority and p2014. The evidence says differently


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Use this theory to explain record levels on almost every body of water on the great lakes water shed. Please use it to explain for all the slip holders, cottage owners and charter captains on almost every other great lake that also had never experienced these water levels in there extensive experience. Use it to explain water levels higher than were ever seen before on the upper Ottawa, an area whose drainage basin shares much of the exact weather we recieve in our own. Use it to explain the breaches levys on the Ottawa, the near dam failures all over the north east including here on lake ontario tribs, use it to explain to this cottage owner on Huron who is complaining it's the highest hes ever seen the water in 50 years. You cant, 2014 got to show its face for 3 months from jan 2017 to april 2017. Then we saw 2 of the wettest months of all time and it's been operation drain the lake ever since and the numbers prove it.

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[lost a lure]

So your interest is below the dam. Your using the propaganda numbers published by the IJC, the people that are causing the problem.

In the past the area below the dam has dropped so low that many boat ramps arent even usable. Theres been a few falls in the past where I'm waiting at the ramp for am power production to begin so the water will rise at Hawkins point and I can launch my boat. 2014 was meant to stabilize all this, more natural highs and lows above the dam and more stable water below. It may work amazingly once it actually gets a chance to function as designed. What weve see. In the last 3 years has absolutely nothing to do with 2014 as its peramiters and set flows have yet to be touched.

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[iiwhistlerii]

I already explained many times that I fish all over the great lakes. I live in Niagara county and use launches in Monroe, Orleans and Niagara county on a regular basis. I'm on the water far more than most. I have family with property right on lake Ontario. Obviously I'd like to see the lake level reduced, I'm just not going to sit there and pretend its caused by something it's not just so I can assign blame. Since this all began I've fished Georgian Bay with nearly unusable ramps, Lake St. Clair with incredible lake levels pouring up into parking lots and flooding neighborhoods, the ottawa with water lines on second story roofs and 9 foot up above where I normally launch, and lake Erie with record levels that have had driftwood floating up into parking lots on the lake and Niagara for months. My interests are for everything to return to normal so I dont have to deal with power launching and loading my boat without docks anymore. I more than most want lake Ontario back to normal, I'm just not willing to turn a blind eye to the facts and the fact that it's not being caused by anyone holding back water.

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[HB2]

What you are saying is that 2014 and the IJC has no responsibility in all this whatsoever . 

 

I feel that they are at least partially responsible for this mess . 

 

It was under control for many years . 

 

And the last 2 out of 3 were the worst ever . 

[salmoseine]

 " The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board says it will be increasing outflows on Lake Ontario over the next few days in an effort to remove more water. The board says outflows will be increased to more than 10,000 cubic meters per second – compared to its current rate of 8,850 cubic meters per second – now that the navigation season has concluded. "   https://13wham.com/news/local/outflow-levels-to-be-increased-for-lake-ontario-high-inflows-expected-in-2020

[iiwhistlerii]

1 hour ago, HB2 said:

What you are saying is that 2014 and the IJC has no responsibility in all this whatsoever . 

 

I feel that they are at least partially responsible for this mess . 

 

It was under control for many years . 

 

And the last 2 out of 3 were the worst ever . 

Also 2 out of 3 highest ever on all the great lakes.  Records set on Ottawa in 2017 were broken in 2019.  Wettest april and may records set in 2017 broken in 2019.  Coincidence or not its fact you cannot ignore.  The lake is at record levels because it's taken on record amounts of water.  That's fact, its backed up by the fact that its dumped record amounts of water.

 

Edited December 30, 2019 by iiwhistlerii

[iiwhistlerii]

1 hour ago, salmoseine said:

 " The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board says it will be increasing outflows on Lake Ontario over the next few days in an effort to remove more water. The board says outflows will be increased to more than 10,000 cubic meters per second – compared to its current rate of 8,850 cubic meters per second – now that the navigation season has concluded. "   https://13wham.com/news/local/outflow-levels-to-be-increased-for-lake-ontario-high-inflows-expected-in-2020

This is good to see.  Hope for warm temps and west winds so they push out as much as possible before backing down for ice formation again.

Edited December 30, 2019 by iiwhistlerii

[lost a lure]

3 hours ago, iiwhistlerii said:

Use this theory to explain record levels on almost every body of water on the great lakes water shed. Please use it to explain for all the slip holders, cottage owners and charter captains on almost every other great lake that also had never experienced these water levels in there extensive experience. Use it to explain water levels higher than were ever seen before on the upper Ottawa, an area whose drainage basin shares much of the exact weather we recieve in our own. Use it to explain the breaches levys on the Ottawa, the near dam failures all over the north east including here on lake ontario tribs, use it to explain to this cottage owner on Huron who is complaining it's the highest hes ever seen the water in 50 years. You cant, 2014 got to show its face for 3 months from jan 2017 to april 2017. Then we saw 2 of the wettest months of all time and it's been operation drain the lake ever since and the numbers prove it.

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PLAN 2012 implemented in July 2014, Then the levels increased.

 

[L&M]

1 hour ago, salmoseine said:

The board says outflows will be increased to more than 10,000 cubic meters per second – compared to its current rate of 8,850 cubic meters per second – now that the navigation season has concluded. " 

 

The highlight in the quote above pretty much sums it up in a nut shell.  "now that the navigation season has concluded. " 

[spoonfed-1]

5 minutes ago, L&M said:

 

The highlight in the quote above pretty much sums it up in a nut shell.  "now that the navigation season has concluded. " 

 

Yup. All the charts, explaining and debating will not change that fact.

Edited December 30, 2019 by spoonfed-1

[salmoseine]

4 minutes ago, L&M said:

 

The highlight in the quote above pretty much sums it up in a nut shell.  "now that the navigation season has concluded. " 

  Yup... Gambler nailed it... " Why cut back outflows starting on August 21st if Montreal wasn't flooding, the Ottawa wasn't flooding and ice was not forming.  It is simple, shipping. "

[iiwhistlerii]

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-ontario-outflow-sets-records-2019-further-increases-expected-new-year

 

It's all right here in the press release.    Dont forget to read the part about how they've been over 2014s set peramiters, then compare those to previous management plans to see those were actually lower for this time of year.  Then continue to read about how this year will set the record for most water ever let through the system, then compare and do the math urself because these people cant be trusted.  All propaganda.    Oh and remember when they drop flows in a week or 2 because ice is forming they are really just doing that because of shipping and power production.  Same with any north east blow that slows flow, that's them playing games again.

[lost a lure]

24 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-ontario-outflow-sets-records-2019-further-increases-expected-new-year

 

It's all right here in the press release.    Dont forget to read the part about how they've been over 2014s set peramiters, then compare those to previous management plans to see those were actually lower for this time of year.  Then continue to read about how this year will set the record for most water ever let through the system, then compare and do the math urself because these people cant be trusted.  All propaganda.    Oh and remember when they drop flows in a week or 2 because ice is forming they are really just doing that because of shipping and power production.  Same with any north east blow that slows flow, that's them playing games again.

 

More IJC propaganda and fake news. Naturally the water let through the system is higher due to the high water levels. You said it yourself that the flows are able to be higher due to the high water levels. When they lower the flows due to the ice forming that is an excuse to keep the water level high.

 

[horsehunter]

So the water in my slip now is about 18 to 24 inches below where I like it at the beginning of Sept maybe they should be holding back water now in case it doesn't snow or rain. God I'm glad I don't have to try and outguess Mother Nature a year out.

[LongLine]

- You said seiches increase it.  I agree,  Largest seiche ever recorded on Lake Ontario raised the outflow by 2K cu ft.  Big whoop! I don't consider 2K significant when the lake was so high and outflow at 300K.  Apparently you do.

- You said water supply was causing reduction in outflow.  I showed you USGS graphs that showed that was not true.

- You said outflows were always reduced to 6KM to low 7KM in Dec.  I showed where that is bogus and you said "Look again at those graphs, They're at near 300,000 cuft"  I say yes 300,000 ft is the same as 8.5KM which is considerably higher than 6-7KM. If a little less than 300Kft then still a  lot more than your 6-7KM

- You said 2014 only in effect from Jan-April of 17 (that's 4 months).  I say that was enough to mess things up pretty good as we still don't have water level where it belongs in Dec '19  I also say if that plan has only been in effect for that short of a time over the last 3 years, then it should be abandoned and not held onto as dearly as you do.  However you also posted a press release from this year that showed permission to exceed plan levels were approved.  THIS YEAR!  So your 4 or 3 months in effect out of 3 years, as you claim, is just another bogus claim.

- You said lake goes thru 20 yr cycle water levels.  I disagreed with that. High water didn't occur in 2000-2014 as those were record low levels across all the lakes.  That leaves you 6 yrs  before 2020 if your statement is true and if a cycle occurred in the 80's-90's.  So where/which year is it?  I gave you the benefit of the doubt that something in your posts was true.

- In the first 6 pages of this thread you insisted level control has nothing to do with shipping.  Yet now you say it has a lot to do with shipping.  Which is it?  Shipping in '17, 18 & 19 boomed.  I showed that & you side stepped it.  The shipping season was extended this year. (normally closes a little earlier)

- You said the Iroquois was closed for those years.  You said that the bays would flood if outflows increased.  Yet opening the Iroquois would have let the water out & there would have been more room for increased outflow.

- You said it'd be good environmentally to have the wetlands flood and be rinsed, yet in another post you don't want any flooding downstream or in the Ottawa.  Again, please make up you mind. 

-  You said outflow was near 370K yet your own data shows much closer to 360K and for only 2 1/2 months.  Water level wasn't nearly as high back in '86 yet they held the 340K range & higher for the last 9 1/2 months of the year and with no significant 2 month reductions as they did in '19.  

-  You said "They're doing all they can"  and "They're the highest outflows possible"  yet couple hours ago it was posted that they're going to significantly higher outflow.

- You refer me  to IJC videos.  I say there is no need to, as IMO, many of your posts are nearly verbatim of them, IMO, your drive to gain sympathy for the IMO inadequate and possibly inept policies of water control for Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence Seaway for the last 3 years, evidenced by wide lakeshore flooding and riparian damage.

-  You've made a number of bogus claims and then when I show you graphical facts from reputable sources, you try to spin them in your favor or side-step.

 

 

[Gill-T]

Alright boys, I am out of this thread. As I said after the 2017 high water, this one will require someone or group suing in a court system to fix this one. As enlightening as this banter has been, I am not sure it will serve any purpose. Pray for lower water levels and for the sanity to return to the IJC. 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Gill-T

[GAMBLER]

Back to 10,000? I thought it wasn’t physically possible at this lake level? Like I stated before, they could have done more. Shipping and the almighty dollar wins every time. You can’t believe everything the IJC puts out there. They are not going to throw themselves into the fire and say yup we could have done more. They are going to say they did all they can and post info that supports their position. Just like government and businesses.


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[HB2]

Now we know the truth . 

 

Any admission of responsibility will open them up for legal liability.  

 

The simple question has been answered . 

Edited December 31, 2019 by HB2