Is there hope ?

[jimski2]

Yesterday at noon time, Lake Erie water level was flowing over the Black Rock Breakwater. The normal level is about three feet lower so you can assume the flow into Lake Ontario has increased. The winds were not that high to create a seiche event but it may have been an air pressure differential from western Lake Erie near Toledo.One year the Corps of Engineers sent a water speed instrument off  various areas of the Peace Bridge. It measured the highest flow speed at 8 MPH. Consider the volume of water 3 foot high and a mile across travelling at eight miles per hour and think of its additional effect  on the level of Lake Ontario. Maybe the the outflow in the Seaway controls can not handle the situation as it is now.

Edited January 1, 2020 by jimski2

[LongLine]

15 hours ago, iiwhistlerii said:

Then continue to read about how this year will set the record for most water ever let through the system, then compare and do the math urself

 

I'd believe this IF the average daily discharge thru Massena for the last 89 days of 2019 had been 11,006 CuM/sec.  But it wasn't so the above claim is just another example of "Bogus-ology".

 

 

 

 

Come on Spring!  I'd like to go fishing on Lake Ontario at least once in 2020 before the ramps get closed again!

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

[iiwhistlerii]

33 minutes ago, LongLine said:

 

I'd believe this IF the average daily discharge thru Massena for the last 89 days of 2019 had been 11,006 CuM/sec.  But it wasn't so the above claim is just another example of "Bogus-ology".

 

 

 

 

Come on Spring!  I'd like to go fishing on Lake Ontario at least once in 2020 before the ramps get closed again!

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

Tom why only 89 days in your math?  86 gets 92 days for the last 3 months and 2019 only has 89?     Those graphs destroy any argument you have that things were handled better in 86 than they were in 2019.  Outside of April and May when there was no choice but to reduce flows to prevent a catastrophic event at Montreal, flows were higher every single month.  Summer flows were way higher, fall flows were higher.  Your whole argument is based on 1986 and how they handled things better but take a look at the numbers.  If they only let out what they let out in 1986 in june, july, august and September we'd be worse are than we are today.  You keep praising 86 for letting out water and condemning the job being done today when today they are doing even more.  Your argument makes no sence.  Yes what happened in april and may sucked but they sacrificed a couple inches here to prevent feet of water from causing destruction there.  Keep in mind adjusting flows during that time to what amounted to an inch a week here would have been an additional foot of water per week down below.  As bad as we had and have it here the situation at Montreal this spring was far worse and anybody who would argue that is a moron who must be completely closed off to what's happening in the rest of the world.

[iiwhistlerii]

4 hours ago, jimski2 said:

Yesterday at noon time, Lake Erie water level was flowing over the Black Rock Breakwater. The normal level is about three feet lower so you can assume the flow into Lake Ontario has increased. The winds were not that high to create a seiche event but it may have been an air pressure differential from western Lake Erie near Toledo.

Its been like that consistently for most of the summer.  Constant white water over that wall.  I fished it thursday and Friday and both days water was flowing over the wall.  You should see it on a stiff sw.  Lake Erie is still 30 inches over normal.

[chinook35]

Its been like that consistently for most of the summer.  Constant white water over that wall.  I fished it thursday and Friday and both days water was flowing over the wall.  You should see it on a stiff sw.  Lake Erie is still 30 inches over normal.

U sure do get around. Fish St Lawrence , Lake Erie , LO. All in the same week


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United mobile app

[iiwhistlerii]

What?? I had my boat between the international bridge and peace bridge Thursday and Friday jigging walleyes. Both were beautiful days although it got a bit windy friday. I launched at Sheridan both days. As I said before, I fish a ton. I dont winterize my boat and u can always find me out somewhere on the great lakes if I'm not working.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[iiwhistlerii]

What?? I had my boat between the international bridge and peace bridge Thursday and Friday jigging walleyes. Both were beautiful days although it got a bit windy friday. I launched at Sheridan both days. As I said before, I fish a ton. I dont winterize my boat and u can always find me out somewhere on the great lakes if I'm not working.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I did fish browns Saturday on lake ontario in front of my house. Sadly I havent been back up to the Larry since Nov so i didnt complete the trifecta you are accusing me of.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[HBC]

North shore of Lake O is not that high.  See what happens in a few months.

[HB2]

It's high on the South shore . I was noticing it at my cottage Sun . 

 

It's going to be as bad or the worst yet this spring if it rains a lot . 

 

 

[LongLine]

You're right about the 92 days.  So the calculation looks more like this:

 

 

It was claimed in that quote from your post that  "this year will set the record for the most water sent thru the system."    9,199 CuM average is still way above the average discharged for the remaining 92 days of 2019.  '86 outflow is definite proof that claim is bogus.  

 

Can't settle for 2nd place or ever admit you're wrong?

 

Anyways, Good luck out there & we're all looking forward to seeing fishing reports from you.

 

Happy New Year!

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

[lost a lure]

On 12/29/2019 at 6:21 PM, iiwhistlerii said:

Because water is no longer high enough to keep up a flow rate of 10,400.  As a river drops flow decreases.  If they did open up the long saulte and allow water to flow over it like they did this summer when the water was 2 feet higher the water in Lake St. Lawrence would drop drastically because the st Lawrence between lake ontario and ogdensburg isnt providing the same amount of water it was during summer peak levels.  Once again that number is calculated based on water passing through the moses sauders dam, water spilling over the long sault spillway, and the massena and Raisin river bypasses.

 

It's a non stop delicate balance with those reservoirs there.  Hell an east wind forces them to reduce flows or lake st. Lawrence will drop and lake st. Louis will rise, a west wind had the opposite effect.  The goal is to keep the river stable while draining the lake as fast as possible.  10, 400 isnt possible with the current lake level.  We dont have enough "pressure" anymore to sustain that flow.  It really is flowing out as fast as possible right now and they have no reason to do otherwise.  Zero benefit to holding back water right now.

 

Outflow was increased to 10,300 by the "board". According to your post the higher outflows were not possible. 

[lost a lure]

Outflow increased to 10,500 from 10,300!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Lake Ontario United mobile app

[Gill-T]

Ya but I thought they couldn't because of simple physics.........

[GAMBLER]

This thread is done. The IJC proved the true reason for the lake level being high right now. We all know it is because of shipping and the almighty dollar. Like I said before and was told I was wrong, more could have been done to keep this flooding this past year to a minimum. Yes we have had a lot of precip, the lakes are all above average but outflows were scaled back for shipping. We still would have had high water but not to the extreme we had and currently have.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United mobile app

 

[iiwhistlerii]

1 hour ago, Gill-T said:

Ya but I thought they couldn't because of simple physics.........

Take ur shots.  My explanation was spot on.  I said flows drop to what is sustainable because as lake ontario flow decreases down the st. Lawrence and we can drain lake st. Lawrence faster than it can be replenished because of where the river necks down.  In 1 week of somewhat increased flows December 23rd to december 28th lake st. Lawrence dropped 14inches.  Watch what it drops this week now that they've really ramped it up.  It's awesome that they are taking advantage of this window before ice forms.  If the warm weather continues theyll have to decrease flows to allow lake st. Lawrence to "replenish" and then they can ramp it back up again as long as ice formation hasnt began.   It doesnt take long for lake st. Lawrence to drop feet to where the boat ramps wont even be touching the water and municipalities who depend on certain water levels for drinking water become affected.  Keep in mind the iroquois flood gates were closed all summer while flows were 10,400 and lake st. Lawrence still maintained its water levels.  Now watch how fast it drops even with the iroquois gates wide open.  We can litterally drain it faster than it can be supplied at the current lake ontario level.

[iiwhistlerii]

21 minutes ago, GAMBLER said:

This thread is done. The IJC proved the true reason for the lake level being high right now. We all know it is because of shipping and the almighty dollar. Like I said before and was told I was wrong, more could have been done to keep this flooding this past year to a minimum. Yes we have had a lot of precip, the lakes are all above average but outflows were scaled back for shipping. We still would have had high water but not to the extreme we had and currently have.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United mobile app

 

They let out more water than ever and it still wasnt enough for anybody not willing to look at the facts.  Outside of april and may the amount of water that was moved was incredible.  They litterally adjusted flows at every opportunity this year.   Scaled back??  To what?  Scaled back to the highest flows of all time?  I'm sorry but anybody who can look at those numbers compared to the last 60 years and still think they are holding back is just in denial.

Edited January 2, 2020 by iiwhistlerii

[horsehunter]

Most people seem only concerned about the spot they are standing on.  It's a big waterway affecting millions. No matter what's done your going to piss off somebody.

[iiwhistlerii]

10 minutes ago, horsehunter said:

Most people seem only concerned about the spot they are standing on.  It's a big waterway affecting millions. No matter what's done your going to piss off somebody.

If I only fished here on Ontario where I live maybe I wouldn't have bothered doing the research I've done and forming the opinion i have.  But when you see in person how things are on St. Clair, Erie, Georgian Bay, The Larry above and below the dam and the crazy water lines on the Ottawa from the spring flooding then it's a lot easier to realize no control board is causing this and thier efforts to resolve it have actually been more than they've ever done in the past and the numbers back that up.

[iiwhistlerii]

https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/40270/20200102/ijc-rsquo-s-special-winter-management-may-help-lower-lake-ontario-and-the-st-lawrence-river

 

Very good read.

[HB2]

I really think you are missing the point of our concerns . 

 

[Gill-T]

1 hour ago, iiwhistlerii said:

Take ur shots.  My explanation was spot on.  I said flows drop to what is sustainable because as lake ontario flow decreases down the st. Lawrence and we can drain lake st. Lawrence faster than it can be replenished because of where the river necks down.  In 1 week of somewhat increased flows December 23rd to december 28th lake st. Lawrence dropped 14inches.  Watch what it drops this week now that they've really ramped it up.  It's awesome that they are taking advantage of this window before ice forms.  If the warm weather continues theyll have to decrease flows to allow lake st. Lawrence to "replenish" and then they can ramp it back up again as long as ice formation hasnt began.   It doesnt take long for lake st. Lawrence to drop feet to where the boat ramps wont even be touching the water and municipalities who depend on certain water levels for drinking water become affected.  Keep in mind the iroquois flood gates were closed all summer while flows were 10,400 and lake st. Lawrence still maintained its water levels.  Now watch how fast it drops even with the iroquois gates wide open.  We can litterally drain it faster than it can be supplied at the current lake ontario level.

 

 

 

Thank you for playing devil's advocate for so long and educating all of us on all of the different aspects of water control as it relates to the IJC and the 2014 agreement.  The above large print quote however has zero relevance to the current water conditions.  Where exactly is this water shortage going to come from?  The upper lakes have to empty.  The upper lakes take YEARS to cycle all the while we are still getting rain and snow.  You are well informed but as stated by HB2 on last post, you are missing the point.  

[iiwhistlerii]

 
 
Thank you for playing devil's advocate for so long and educating all of us on all of the different aspects of water control as it relates to the IJC and the 2014 agreement.  The above large print quote however has zero relevance to the current water conditions.  Where exactly is this water shortage going to come from?  The upper lakes have to empty.  The upper lakes take YEARS to cycle all the while we are still getting rain and snow.  You are well informed but as stated by HB2 on last post, you are missing the point.  

Lake st. Lawrence is dropping by the minute and you still argue I'm wrong. Hell it dropped 2 feet in 2 days during that time period and u still act like I'm feeding you bs. It doesnt matter what I say, your mind is made up. Yes lake ontario is high. When its 30 inches high there is enough outflow to sustain 10,400 non stop for months. When it's only 18 inches high like it is now the outflow isnt enough to sustain 10,000 without draining lake st. Lawrence. More water is flowing out than is making it through the necked down portion of the river. Read the article, its explained there. I keep explaining it and for some reason you chose to treat me like a liar instead of researching yourself and realizing I'm not full of **** may actually know wtf I'm talking about here.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[iiwhistlerii]

This is what happens above the dam just trying to delicately balance 8400-9000.  Wait until next weeks numbers come out and watch how fast it drops at 10,400 without the amount of water coming down the river that we had over the summer.  Like I said before it's awesome the ijc is opening it wide open to take advantage of this weather window but they cant do it for months or even days at a time like they can when the river is flowing 30+ inches high.  That's the balancing act the IJC is playing and that's why you saw flows decrease when you did in august, etc.  Once you understand this concept you can litterally do nothing but applaud how well they've kept it at max this year.

[GAMBLER]

They let out more water than ever and it still wasnt enough for anybody not willing to look at the facts.  Outside of april and may the amount of water that was moved was incredible.  They litterally adjusted flows at every opportunity this year.   Scaled back??  To what?  Scaled back to the highest flows of all time?  I'm sorry but anybody who can look at those numbers compared to the last 60 years and still think they are holding back is just in denial.

Common sense needs to be used. When more water coming in, more needs to go out. Last year in October/ November the lake started gaining. Normally it drops until mid December. More water should have been let out when possible to make room for the following spring run off. You can say what you want about facts but the IJC blew your facts out of the water when they just took the outflow to 10,300.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United mobile app

[iiwhistlerii]

13 minutes ago, GAMBLER said:

Common sense needs to be used. When more water coming in, more needs to go out. Last year in October/ November the lake started gaining. Normally it drops until mid December. More water should have been let out when possible to make room for the following spring run off. You can say what you want about facts but the IJC blew your facts out of the water when they just took the outflow to 10,300.


Sent from my iPhone using Lake Ontario United mobile app

They took the outflow to 10,300 and lake st. Lawrence is dropping inches an hour.  Even at 8600 it dropped 2 feet in a couple days so it's just proving exactly what I explained to you.  Water doesnt make it through the neck down in the river fast enough to maintain the water in Lake st. Lawrence to keep up that amount of ouflow.  It's not sustainable and that's why they dont do it non stop like they can when the lake is higher.  Once incoming water from lake ontario can't sustain water levels on Lake st. Lawrence they slow the flow to achieve balance.  They can only take Lake St. Lawrence down so far before they have to reduce flows again so they dont start effecting water supply's to municipalities, river access, etc.  Litterally 3 days at that flow right now has to drop the area above the dam many feet.  We will find out when the numbers are released next week.  It will be cool to see because I dont think theres ever been flows that high in January.  It's a temporary increase and they should be applauded for taking advantage of this window before ice up.    Read the article.  I've tried 9 different ways to explain this to you and it just isnt clicking.

 

https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/40270/20200102/ijc-rsquo-s-special-winter-management-may-help-lower-lake-ontario-and-the-st-lawrence-river