Is there hope ?

[GAMBLER]

Everyone has different priorities.  A long cold winter will definitely facilitate draining the pond for the shoreline property owners.  But if it means a couple more sammins in yer box, let's let them keep flooded!  Like the "why did they drop it in May-June", oh, well, Montreal was under 10 feet of water, but lets make it 14 to dry out the north coast!
 
I'm not clear on why they have been lowering it lately though, unless to make it possible for the last of the ships to get through before it closes for the winter.

The lake should have been held lower all winter last year. The lake got close to the historical average last October and then was allowed to climb. If the lake was held at the historical average u til spring, they would have had more room for all the water. With higher flows into Lake Ontario, the plan needs to be modified for the extra water in the Great Lakes right now.


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[iiwhistlerii]

So what your saying is every single great lakes body of water both above and below us are at all time record high levels but you want Lake Ontario to not be at record high levels.   Makes sense.

[GAMBLER]

So what your saying is every single great lakes body of water both above and below us are at all time record high levels but you want Lake Ontario to not be at record high levels.   Makes sense.

With the upper Great Lakes above average, they should be taking Ontario lower in the winter to account for more water coming into the lake. They could also hold back more water is the Ottawa was flooding and they needed relief for Montreal. It’s common sense.


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[iiwhistlerii]

Ok.  Now you do realize winter water levels on the lower portion of the st Lawrence exist for a reason right?  It needs to freeze over at a certain level down there to prevent damage and once it does freeze over water levels need to remain stable.  We are nowhere near plan 2014s winter lows and are letting out as much as possible to get there without causing damage down below.  Plan 2014s winter levels havent even come into play yet.  Hell the plan went into effect in Jan of 2017 and without any real changes we were facing record lake levels by April of that year.  That's mother nature's fault plain and simple.  Its not as simple as just opening the spillway over the long saulte dam all winter.  Lake Ontario is right in line with all the other great lakes right now as it should be.  When every major body of water surrounding us is at record levels, we will be at record levels no matter what plan is in effect.  Seems pretty logical.  The problem is while all the other great lakes are dealing with the exact same issue we here on lake Ontario feel we have somebody we can blame.  In 5 years we will all be complaining about the water being 5 feet low and them letting too much out.  Just hope your marina was smart enough to install floating docks this time.

[Gator]

34 minutes ago, iiwhistlerii said:

Ok.  Now you do realize winter water levels on the lower portion of the st Lawrence exist for a reason right?  It needs to freeze over at a certain level down there to prevent damage and once it does freeze over water levels need to remain stable.  We are nowhere near plan 2014s winter lows and are letting out as much as possible to get there without causing damage down below.  Plan 2014s winter levels havent even come into play yet.  Hell the plan went into effect in Jan of 2017 and without any real changes we were facing record lake levels by April of that year.  That's mother nature's fault plain and simple.  Its not as simple as just opening the spillway over the long saulte dam all winter.  Lake Ontario is right in line with all the other great lakes right now as it should be.  When every major body of water surrounding us is at record levels, we will be at record levels no matter what plan is in effect.  Seems pretty logical.  The problem is while all the other great lakes are dealing with the exact same issue we here on lake Ontario feel we have somebody we can blame.  In 5 years we will all be complaining about the water being 5 feet low and them letting too much out.  Just hope your marina was smart enough to install floating docks this time.

 

 

Tommy!!! Are you reading this? Floating docks, man!

[jimski2]

There is no fishing if you can not launch your boat or the docks are unusable.


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[LongLine]

The upper great lakes are at high levels, not at record high levels.  Look at the graphs on this GLERL - NOAA site.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/wlevels/levels.html#observations

 

Note that all of the other great lakes levels traced through out this year are a little higher but almost exactly parallel to 2018.  From April to June for Lake O, it's almost perpendicular to 2018.

 

Look at all of the graphs earlier in 2019.  Other lakes were a little higher than 2018  but Lake O was nearly the same  as 2018.  This should have been the signal to let more water out of Lake O in preparation for it. The should have opened the gates in March.

 

Go back & read plan 2014 - not the media reports about it.  It's first criteria is for navigation and power plants.  Property owners are like 4th or 5th. (both above & below the power station) 

 

Floating docks - of course the little guy should bear the expense (& permit hassles) for them. ( BS! ) I-Bay has floating docks & they were closed for quite a period too.

 

 

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

Huh?  Lake Superior, Erie and Ontario all hit all time record highs this summer and Lake Michigan and huron weren't far away.  Lake St. Clair also reached an all time high this summer.   Since the summer high levels Lake Ontario has dropped more than any of the other lakes.  Pay attention to the media all you like.  My opinion on our situation is based 100% on research and fact and not just dock talk.

[LongLine]

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Information-2/Water-Level-Data/

 

Superior was at all time high in '66 according to above army corps site.  In fact all the lakes were very high that year  EXCEPT Ontario.  In fact they went down in next couple years and regardless of what the other lakes did in subsequent years Ontario maintained it's steady up/down 3 - 4 ft pattern. 

LTA-GLWL-Graph.bmp 

This indicates that the seaway control can indeed successfully react to whatever water levels are in the upper lakes and control Ontario's level but simply didn't in both '17 & '19. Plan 2014 didn't trigger the increased outflow until it was too late.  If you buy the argument that the high water level in Ontario  was due to the increased water level of the upper lakes then the framers of plan 2014 should have factored in the upper lakes levels into that trigger point. 

 

It would be nice if opinions were based on measured data, not on alternative facts proposed by those with vested interests in shipping.

 

BTW, there are (as of this morning)  23 ships in transit from Niagara to Montreal.  11 in the actual seaway and the seaway is supposed to close end of month.  According to H1 Criteria for "exceptions to high water level" in plan 2014, they get the priority before the landowners upward or downward of the power plant as well as the environment.  

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

Tom B. With all due respect what reaction did you expect to take place in 2017 when the plan was in place less than 90 days and the lake level was preparing to reach all time highs just as areas of Montreal were being wiped out from floods on the Ottawa.  Lake superior set monthly high records this year in May, June, July, August, September and missed october by 1.1 inches.  The flood damage on every great lake is just as bad if not worse  than we are dealing with here on Ontario.  As somebody who regularly fishes Erie, St. Clair, the Niagara, Ontario and the St. Lawrence both above and below the dams and the Ottawa one thing I can tell you for sure is every one of them is experiencing the highest water levels they've ever dealt with. When you see water lines 9 ft above normal on boat launches and on 2nd story rooflines on the Ottawa you realize just how much water we have dealt with in the almost 300,000 miles that make up our drainage basin.  Everywhere I've fished this year I've gotten to hear about how "it's the highest they've ever seen it in 50 years or 60 years of fishing there" but only here on lake ontario do we expect to be an exception because we have somebody to blame.  We arent an exception here on Ontario because of some boards control over a spillway at a dam.  1 dry spring and itll be a non topic as everyone moves on to griping about how thier slip is bone dry and all the new poorly designed permanent docks are too high to use.

[LongLine]

I would have expected the designers of Plan 2014 to have taken a look at the current measured data and anticipated or at least thought about what was going to happen.  They took their eyes off of current data. (Perhaps they were too excited about working out selling the plan strategies for meetings and issuing press releases?)  In the 12 years prior to 2013, all the upper lakes were at lower than normal levels then beginning in 2013 there was a definite beginning of an upwards trend in all the upper lakes levels yet Ontario maintained the same up/down 3-4 ft pattern because the outflow was being controlled until P-2014 took effect. Obviously they totally ignored what was going on with water levels from the point they drafted the plan and it's going into effect in Jan of '17.  They had an additional 4 years of water level data that they did not take into account which would have changed the statistics in the written Plan 2014 document.

 

It had already historically been proven that Ontario's level could be controlled to the 3-4 ft range when the upper lakes were way above there normal levels using the historical trigger points.  However as you point out, P-2014 went into effect in Jan (and it has higher trigger points.)  P-2014 is supposed to allow Ontario's level go higher and lower than normal yet in late 2018 they did not allow it to go to a lower than normal level.  Even though the Army Corps and the Canadian Gov't both officially forecasted higher inflows for 2019.

 

(BTW: in 2013 the 1st post-panamax ship arrived in Montreal (much heavier container ship) and in 2016 celebrated a record 35 Million tonnes of container freight and the records are going up - without dredging the port.  P-2014 is designed with shipping in mind, not the landowner or recreationalist.)

 

On 12/7/2019 at 9:16 PM, iiwhistlerii said:

My opinion on our situation is based 100% on research and fact and not just dock talk.

No dock talk here...they were under water & launches closed most of the year.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[GAMBLER]

On ‎12‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 3:41 PM, iiwhistlerii said:

Ok.  Now you do realize winter water levels on the lower portion of the st Lawrence exist for a reason right?  It needs to freeze over at a certain level down there to prevent damage and once it does freeze over water levels need to remain stable.  We are nowhere near plan 2014s winter lows and are letting out as much as possible to get there without causing damage down below.  Plan 2014s winter levels havent even come into play yet.  Hell the plan went into effect in Jan of 2017 and without any real changes we were facing record lake levels by April of that year.  That's mother nature's fault plain and simple.  Its not as simple as just opening the spillway over the long saulte dam all winter.  Lake Ontario is right in line with all the other great lakes right now as it should be.  When every major body of water surrounding us is at record levels, we will be at record levels no matter what plan is in effect.  Seems pretty logical.  The problem is while all the other great lakes are dealing with the exact same issue we here on lake Ontario feel we have somebody we can blame.  In 5 years we will all be complaining about the water being 5 feet low and them letting too much out.  Just hope your marina was smart enough to install floating docks this time.

Part of this is true.  Once the river freezes over, the flows can be increased under the ice.  This is right from the IJC webpage. 

 

 

High Outflows from Lake Ontario to Continue Over Winter; Lake St. Lawrence Levels to Fluctuate Widely in Coming Months

Date

December 03, 2019

While Lake Ontario remains above long-term average, regulated outflows will remain as high as feasible based on river conditions. As a result, residents around Lake St. Lawrence are being warned to expect both extreme high and low water levels this winter, as the Board implements a winter deviation strategy. The strategy aims to take full advantage of all opportunities to safely increase outflows and reduce the impact of future levels on Lake Ontario. 

High water levels are anticipated when ice begins forming at critical areas of the St. Lawrence River.  When ice begins to form, the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board must reduce outflows through Moses-Saunders Dam to help create a stable ice cover on the river.  Flow management during ice formation helps to prevent ice jams in the St. Lawrence River that can restrict flows and cause local flooding.

The reduced outflows cause levels of Lake St. Lawrence, immediately upstream of the dam, to rise temporarily.  The largest and most rapid increases occur closest to the dam, in the area just west of Cornwall, ON and Massena, NY.  These effects are reduced moving upstream and tend to be negligible beyond Iroquois, ON and Lisbon, NY.

With Lake Ontario expected to remain well above average for at least the next several weeks, this will also contribute to higher levels of Lake St. Lawrence this winter.  The Board is therefore advising residents of Lake St. Lawrence to prepare for the potential of unusually high levels this winter.

As ice formation is completed, outflows can normally be safely increased under the ice.  This causes Lake St. Lawrence levels to drop, and this drop is also expected to be greater than normal this winter, as the Board continues to investigate potential opportunities to deviate from Plan 2014 and release higher outflows over the next several months in an attempt to lower the risk of high Lake Ontario levels next spring. 

At present, the timing of ice formation remains uncertain, as it depends on both water and air temperatures, which are highly variable from year-to-year.  The Board will continue to communicate with Lake St. Lawrence residents and communities as winter approaches and the timing and risk of fluctuating water levels become clear. 

Since construction of the St. Lawrence Seaway and Moses-Saunders Dam in the 1950s, it has been necessary to reduce Lake Ontario outflow as ice forms on the St. Lawrence River. This reduces the risk of ice jams by slowing down the current to reduce the forces acting on floating ice pans and any tiny ice particles (frazil ice) forming in the water column.  Slower currents keeps ice at or near the surface, and with weather conditions permitting, facilitates them forming into large pans that accumulate, solidify and build a cover upriver.  Once established, outflows can be safely increased to pass under the stable ice cover, allowing higher outflows later in winter and reducing – but not eliminating – the risk of high Lake Ontario levels in spring.

 

[jimski2]

Panamax ships require a 54 foot deep channel to unload.


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[LongLine]

On 12/7/19 the outflow was 8,830 m3/sec.  Except for 3 days in Oct, this is the lowest it's been since 5/31/19.  In June, July & Aug it was over 10,000.  according to the IJC water level site: 

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/outflow-changes  (scroll down for previous years)

 

According to the GLFC water temp site: There is currently  a very small pocket of water south of St Vincent being shown in the low 40's, however the deep section of the lake north of Sodus is in the 50's. (Yellow green)  Normally this time of year the section off Sodus is in the very low 40's.  The water currents map is also showing a strong twin gyre movement of water so IMO, it's going to be a while before we see substantial ice forming due to water temps.   

 

There are "Panamax", Post-Panamax", "Panamax Plus" and a "New-Panamax" style container ships. The "Post-Panamax" which they celebrated in Montreal only requires 11-13 m or 36-43 ft of draft.  The "New Panamax" is the one that requires the 50 ft range draft and they haven't come in...yet. (that I know of.  I believe it's a length issue)

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[iiwhistlerii]

11 minutes ago, LongLine said:

On 12/7/19 the outflow was 8,830 m3/sec.  Except for 3 days in Oct, this is the lowest it's been since 5/31/19.  In June, July & Aug it was over 10,000.  according to the IJC water level site: 

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/outflow-changes  (scroll down for previous years)

 

According to the GLFC water temp site: There is currently  a very small pocket of water south of St Vincent being shown in the low 40's, however the deep section of the lake north of Sodus is in the 50's. (Yellow green)  Normally this time of year the section off Sodus is in the very low 40's.  The water currents map is also showing a strong twin gyre movement of water so IMO, it's going to be a while before we see substantial ice forming due to water temps.   

 

There are "Panamax", Post-Panamax", "Panamax Plus" and a "New-Panamax" style container ships. The "Post-Panamax" which they celebrated in Montreal only requires 11-13 m or 36-43 ft of draft.  The "New Panamax" is the one that requires the 50 ft range draft and they haven't come in...yet. (that I know of.  I believe it's a length issue)

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

Tom once again you're forgetting that the whole world doesnt revolve around lake Ontario.  Water temps at Montreal are 36.  Water temperatures directly below the long sault dam spillway in pollys bay and the area above Hawkins point are only 34.  Harbors and bays froze up on both the upper and lower st. Lawrence days ago and that area below the long sault dam will be solid very soon.  When the flows are up for summer and over 10,000 they are letting water spill over the spillway on the long saulte dam.  This time of year the area above Hawkins point is a bay of trapped water sitting below the long sault dam as they dont let water rage over the spillway this late in the season.  All the water being let through at this time of year will come through the moses Saunders dam below Hawkins point.  In the summer the water level in that area can fluctuate 6+ feet in an average day and sometimes even more.  It's very much like the area occupied by our power plants in the Lower Niagara.  Allowing the water to fluctuate down there that much daily creates horribly dangerous conditions with ice this time of year.  Thus winter water levels coming into play on Nov 1st and lasting until April 1st in these areas.  Last I knew the shipping channel above port of Montreal is only 27ft deep in spots so unless they start dredging we never have to worry about seeing any type of panamax on lake ontario.

[jimski2]

With the density of water being densest about thirty nine degrees, the thirty two degree water becomes ice on the surface , the bottom water will remain at 38 degrees as that is where the fish survive and live. The thirty nine degree water is the beginning of the turnover. The water temperature is the same top to bottom except wind and currents have influence at times. In the spring the change over has surface water temperatures rising while bottom water temperatures will be lower. Mid summer causes the dissolved oxygen levels to be depleted on the bottom levels. Upwelling crystal clear water appear on the offshore waters when warm winds move nearshore water there downwind. Spring nearshore waters are influenced by inflow from warmer rivers, creeks, spring water, sewage plants and farm fields. Plankton blooms happen and baitfish are there. And good fisherman are there until maybe strong sunlight moves the gamefish deeper.


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[LongLine]

No you're right the world doesn't revolve around Lake Ontario, however you're forgetting that the purpose of the US/Canada treaty of 1909 that formed the IJC is to protect shipping on the Great lakes, particularly thru the St Lawrence Seaway.  Now if sections are frozen or nearly as shallow as you claim then the these ships won't keep their scheduled arrivals in Montreal as the port expects them:

 

 

 

 

Especially the one whose last port was in Spain or the one from Portugal or the one whose last stop was Tangier.  I'm sure that Maersk won't appreciate their bigger ships being stranded in ice and unable to get back out to the open ocean.  Especially those over 35,000 tonnes, whose draft is well over 30 ft.  (keyword: "Port of Montreal" then follow the left hand column headings & tabs)  

 

The IJC & the plan supporters forgot that the world, for those people living around it & using it, is Lake Ontario.  The current water plan was designed to help shippers, not the environment and certainly not the people BOTH around the lake and along (both up and down) the St Lawrence. 

 

J2 - yes, and additionally, moving water requires much colder temperatures to freeze than standing water which is why a waterfall freezes AFTER the pond it feeds freezes.  However Lake Ontario is not a small pond. Ice forms on Big-O at the shoreline first due to wave spray then builds outward due to the spraying effect.   It's very rare for it to freeze over and when it has, it's been due to an extended calm period and a very prolonged deep freezing air temp. Most people think Big-O evenly streatifies, but it doesn't.  The layers are very jagged i.e ups & downs like a mountain range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jimski2]

The IJC needs to consider the St. Lawrence River Drainage Basin in its studies to prevent the Ottawa River flood conditions that affected Lake Ontario last season.

[iiwhistlerii]

13 hours ago, LongLine said:

No you're right the world doesn't revolve around Lake Ontario, however you're forgetting that the purpose of the US/Canada treaty of 1909 that formed the IJC is to protect shipping on the Great lakes, particularly thru the St Lawrence Seaway.  Now if sections are frozen or nearly as shallow as you claim then the these ships won't keep their scheduled arrivals in Montreal as the port expects them:

 

 

 

 

Especially the one whose last port was in Spain or the one from Portugal or the one whose last stop was Tangier.  I'm sure that Maersk won't appreciate their bigger ships being stranded in ice and unable to get back out to the open ocean.  Especially those over 35,000 tonnes, whose draft is well over 30 ft.  (keyword: "Port of Montreal" then follow the left hand column headings & tabs)  

 

The IJC & the plan supporters forgot that the world, for those people living around it & using it, is Lake Ontario.  The current water plan was designed to help shippers, not the environment and certainly not the people BOTH around the lake and along (both up and down) the St Lawrence. 

 

J2 - yes, and additionally, moving water requires much colder temperatures to freeze than standing water which is why a waterfall freezes AFTER the pond it feeds freezes.  However Lake Ontario is not a small pond. Ice forms on Big-O at the shoreline first due to wave spray then builds outward due to the spraying effect.   It's very rare for it to freeze over and when it has, it's been due to an extended calm period and a very prolonged deep freezing air temp. Most people think Big-O evenly streatifies, but it doesn't.  The layers are very jagged i.e ups & downs like a mountain range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

8.2 m above Montreal.  Like I said, I've observed 27ft in the channel.  Those ships will never come above Montreal without dredging and plan 2014 hasnt even come into play yet with these water levels.  Take off the tinfoil hat and look at facts.

[horsehunter]

That's why the 12 thousand footers have to stay on the upper lakes they can't get through the Welland canal at 740 feet.

[horsehunter]

Seaway Locks Each lock is 233.5 metres long (766 feet), 24.4 metres wide (80 feet) and 9.1 metres deep (30 feet) over the sill. A lock fills with approximately 91 million litres of water (24 million gallons) in just 7 to 10 minutes. Getting through a lock takes about 45 minutes.

[Todd in NY]

5 hours ago, iiwhistlerii said:

Take off the tinfoil hat and look at facts.

 

What makes you right, and everyone else wrong? Maybe it's you who is wearing the tin foil hat.

 

An adult discussion can & should take place without pounding your chest and bashing other members.

[iiwhistlerii]

15 minutes ago, Todd in NY said:

 

What makes you right, and everyone else wrong? Maybe it's you who is wearing the tin foil hat.

 

An adult discussion can & should take place without pounding your chest and bashing other members.

Todd in everyone of my posts I've stated facts and every rebuttal has been to tell me my facts are wrong.  I stated lakes had all reached record highs, I was told I was wrong, I stated current water temps and actual reasoning for keeping steady water levels in the lower st. Lawrence this time of year, again was told I was wrong.  I was even told I was wrong about the shipping channel depth above Montreal.  Facts stacked on facts to help explain why things are done the way they are and why none of it has anything to do with plan 2014 because we havent reached scenarios where its parameters even come in to play yet.  All I get is an argument about ships coming into port of Montreal which have nothing to do with any of this.  I get that everyone is upset with the current water levels but everyone is dealing with them from Superior to Quebec city.  In the end we've spent 100 years armoring shorelines and destroying an ecosystem.  I understand the lake ontario stocked fishery thrives as we dump them in by the millions but the native fisheries that truly depend on natural spawning grounds and back bays on the st. Lawrence can only be helped by this experience.   We are experiencing natural high water just like everyone around us, the nutrients being washed into the lake will help baitfish to theive.  New spawning grounds will be created as a result of shorline changes and backwater bays being flushed and brought back to life are all something we should be happy about as outdoorsman.  You can only put walls around the lake and treat it like a swimming pool for so long because eventually all you'll have left is an empty lifeless swimming pool.

[Frogger]

Todd in everyone of my posts I've stated facts and every rebuttal has been to tell me my facts are wrong.  I stated lakes had all reached record highs, I was told I was wrong, I stated current water temps and actual reasoning for keeping steady water levels in the lower st. Lawrence this time of year, again was told I was wrong.  I was even told I was wrong about the shipping channel depth above Montreal.  Facts stacked on facts to help explain why things are done the way they are and why none of it has anything to do with plan 2014 because we havent reached scenarios where its parameters even come in to play yet.  All I get is an argument about ships coming into port of Montreal which have nothing to do with any of this.  I get that everyone is upset with the current water levels but everyone is dealing with them from Superior to Quebec city.  In the end we've spent 100 years armoring shorelines and destroying an ecosystem.  I understand the lake ontario stocked fishery thrives as we dump them in by the millions but the native fisheries that truly depend on natural spawning grounds and back bays on the st. Lawrence can only be helped by this experience.   We are experiencing natural high water just like everyone around us, the nutrients being washed into the lake will help baitfish to theive.  New spawning grounds will be created as a result of shorline changes and backwater bays being flushed and brought back to life are all something we should be happy about as outdoorsman.  You can only put walls around the lake and treat it like a swimming pool for so long because eventually all you'll have left is an empty lifeless swimming pool.

I don’t live on the lake so I’m not directly impacted, but you can bet we will be at some point through taxes or impending fees, and I’m willing to bet no one will see a reduction in electrical power or transportation fees that are allowing some to gain huge profits from this direction. I feel for those that have lost hundreds and thousands of dollars including their life savings from this irresponsible plan. I call it irresponsible because after it happened once, they let it happen again. From the looks of levels currently it’s going to happen a third time. In a relatively short period of time (4 years)
With that said, no one, other than who was in on the decisions being made, would of agreed to this direction fully knowing the risks of flooding as a result just to improve the ecosystem???? Or make it better for the baitfish???? I must of missed that lecture where we needed to flood the lake to help our fisheries......Shouldn’t we then go to all of the local / state governments and request an increase in dams and dikes along rivers and creeks to flood the lakes so we can improve the states fisheries and ecosystem? If this plan is so good then it should work right? This feels like it’s a money grab.

Lastly, and just a question, when you say everyone is feeling it from Lake Superior to Montreal, how much is being truly felt from the seasonal rainfall levels vs holding the flows back causing to it backlog. I don’t wish this on my worst enemy but part of me is wanting to get a front row seat if this disaster happens a third time.

I’m not trying to argue but I got to tell ya, if there’s no remorse for those that have been impacted or providing ideas and support for changes to makes things better, you might get a different response than what your looking for.


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