Is there hope ?

[iiwhistlerii]

Frogger look at the lake levels of the other great lakes from this summer.  We werent even the highest over normal.  Right now we here on lake ontario are one of the lowest over normal.  Everyone has been feeling this since 2017.  For some the impact has actually been much much worse.

[iiwhistlerii]

You can see here where we are today compared to the other great lakes.  Lake ontario has actually faired better than the rest since July thanks to the water that was let go over the long sault all summer.  Everyone needs to remember that theres nothing natural about the "drainage" that occurs as water leaves lake ontario through the st. Lawrence anymore.  We created multiple reservoirs out of the river when we dammed it up and dregged massive areas that were once shallow rapids allowing more water to flow through those areas if left unchecked.  Theres nothing "natural" about just letting the water go now.  We have to regulate it to keep tolerable levels both above and below the dams.

[Sk8man]

Nicely stated MIke

[LongLine]

- The water level is very high - YES!

- Is it the highest ever in the upper Great lakes - NO!  (Look at the Army Corps historical graphs, particularly 1966 & 1967)

- Did Lake Ontario handle that high water period - YES! (Look at the above graphs)

- Could the water level controllers that had been acting under P-2014 for 3 months have handled the high water of 2017 - Well, they did get the water down quite a bit thru 2018. 

- Could the water level controllers that had been acting under P-2014 for 24 months have handled the high water that had been forecasted by the Canadian Gov't, NOAA & the Army Corps of 2019 - YES, they could have handled it much better by opening up the system earlier i.e. in March rather than May which would have allowed more room for inflow.

- Where are the lakes now - Over Dec 2018 avg: Sup:  +3. Mich/Huron: +16. Erie: +3. Ontario: +11 (Look at your own chart so it's still quite high)

- Did the treaty with Canada at the turn of the 20th century charter the IJC for shipping concerns on the St Lawrence River & Great Lakes: YES! (Read the treaty)

- What are the priorities of the current water level controllers - 1st shipping, 3rd environment, 4th landowners & recreationalist.

- Were homeowners & recreationist been hurt in last 3 years - YES (no need to elaborate on this)

- Has the environment been helped  in last 3 years - Erosion has been  high, sewage leaks, & other pollutants have increased, invasives have thrived, preyfish populations in the open lake continue to decline, stocking plans have been cut, no evidence of healthier embayments has been brought forward other than anecdotal "dock talk." (kind of like that more rain is better for your lawn argument), the water temperature regime in the main lake has been altered as warmer water now goes out farther and deeper.

- Has shipping been helped - YES, the port of Montreal is booming as more ships of bigger size have been coming in. 

 

- Can the bigger ships come in - YES,  your posted specifications for water depth are obviously minimums (although source is unsubstantiated) as the current conditions in Montreal are:

so obviously levels towards the main lake are higher than the unsubstantiated specifications.

- Were all those alleged dams built in the last 3 years - NO

- Do we have to regulate the level of the water - Heck yes!  That's what we were doing.  i.e keeping Ontario to a 3-4 ft range since the 50's regardless of what the other lakes were doing.

 

So okay, I'll take my "Tin hat" off, why don't you get off your lead what-not.and present some real data that may help rather than try to rationalize a horrible situation.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[iiwhistlerii]

[iiwhistlerii]

I'm not sure what I'm even arguing here.  66 and 67?  Not even close to previous records.  The all time record high for 3 out of 5 great lakes is 2019 and most of them set all time monthly highs throughout the year as well.  The data is available and clear and many many articles have been published on that data.  I've posted the graphs you referred to as reference.  2019 smashed all time records.  Instead of comparing 2018 to current lake levels let's compare the long term average...   superior +14, michigan/huron +37, st. Clair +30, erie +36 and ontario is at +18.  Every one of these lakes dealt with the same problems we did all summer long, somebody them higher water levels, greater populated areas, bigger cities, more damage and for a longer period of time.  You know who they have to blame, mother nature.  The ships you keep referring to are running from the ocean to Montreal.  You think they are holding water back now to make sure they can make it to Montreal?  I just dont understand the current thought process.  I understand plan 2014 will in fact let out more water and allow our winter levels to go lower in order to keep that portion high enough for those ships when needed but none of that comes into play with the conditions the past 3 years.  Those ships are from Port of Montreal to the ocean only.  Theyd never make it through the seaway any further.  I keep presenting factual data with references to back it up and you keep telling me it's wrong without any facts.  It's a very confusing argument.

[iiwhistlerii]

Record levels....  Just about everywhere.

[Frogger]

Record levels....  Just about everywhere.

Maybe there’s another way to look at this, in your mind, what would be the best way to prevent the shoreline flooding from occurring in the event there’s another year of high precipitation? I’ll remind you that it was evident and predicted in the past flooding event before the “precipitation”ever hit. Do you have specific suggestions. Not really looking for any data but am interested in your thoughts.


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[HB2]

Pretty simple , pull the plug ... NOW . 

[iiwhistlerii]

We dont control lake levels on the upper great lakes, mother nature does.  So how do we prevent lake shore flooding there?  We rely on mother nature and adapt.  There is no "plug" here on lake Ontario.  We modified our outflow in a way that is far from natural.  We dredged shallow areas of shallow Rapids to create the seaway and dammed up and created slow moving lakes/reservoirs out of what once was a wild flowing river.  Currently we let out as much water as possible without negatively affecting those who live along the "drain" below the dam.  Right now the "plug" is pulled.  Water is being let out at a natural rate, it's always being let out at atleast a natural rate.  Plan 2014 actually allows us to let out more during the winter months than the previous plans did if you take the time to actually read how the changes work.  It allows for lower lows each winter here on lake Ontario to keep the area below the dam higher because traditionally we've let the lower st Lawrence drop so low in the fall they cant even use thier boat launches to get thier boats out by November.  With current water levels plan 2014 doesnt really matter, its parameters are out the window and they just scramble to let out additions water whenever they can.  Everyone wants the spillway open earlier, or maximum flows year round like they did theoughout the summer to occur at other times of the year but it's just not possible without negatively impacting others far worse than the negative impacts we are experiencing here.  You cant just let everything loose in march when half the river is still ice covered down below or when flows on the Ottawa are at peak levels.  The impact down there is far greater than people realize.  Water levels can and do rise 10+ feet and if we were to increase flows as the ice let's loose the ice jam flooding could be catastrophic to those areas.  People keep complaining we didnt do enough all summer but none of them actually have spent anytime fishing below the dam and seen that water levels have actually been way up over where they traditionally have been for 3 solid years.

 

  Basically it all comes down to one thing.  When every single great lake and water shed in the north east is at record water levels we are foolish to believe that lake ontario should not be at record levels.  It's like believing ur neighbor to the north got a foot of snow, the one to the south got a foot of snow but you should be able to see ur grass still. It just doesnt work that way.  If everything both above and below is higher than ever, guess what, so are we.  What can we do at this point?  Pray for a dry spring and a little reprieve from mother nature and keep in mind it's not just lake ontario fighting this battle and we arent even the ones being effected the most by the situation.  Id love to be able to jump on the boat with everyone else and impulsively blame the IJC and plan 2014 but when I sat down and read everything and then took the time to analyze all the available data and compare it to the years past it really is the only logical conclusion.  The implementation of plan 2014 in 2017 and the fact that in coincided with record lake levels is nothing more than coincidence.

[spoonfed-1]

46 minutes ago, HB2 said:

Pretty simple , pull the plug ... NOW . 

Yup.

[Sk8man]

Stepping back a bit from this thread I have to admit this is the closest thing I  have seen on here in the way of a truly intellectually based argument with supportive data for each side of it. Too bad our elected officials, the IJC and other decision makers haven't done their "homework" to this extent regardless of the "correct" interpretation

[Frogger]

We dont control lake levels on the upper great lakes, mother nature does.  So how do we prevent lake shore flooding there?  We rely on mother nature and adapt.  There is no "plug" here on lake Ontario.  We modified our outflow in a way that is far from natural.  We dredged shallow areas of shallow Rapids to create the seaway and dammed up and created slow moving lakes/reservoirs out of what once was a wild flowing river.  Currently we let out as much water as possible without negatively affecting those who live along the "drain" below the dam.  Right now the "plug" is pulled.  Water is being let out at a natural rate, it's always being let out at atleast a natural rate.  Plan 2014 actually allows us to let out more during the winter months than the previous plans did if you take the time to actually read how the changes work.  It allows for lower lows each winter here on lake Ontario to keep the area below the dam higher because traditionally we've let the lower st Lawrence drop so low in the fall they cant even use thier boat launches to get thier boats out by November.  With current water levels plan 2014 doesnt really matter, its parameters are out the window and they just scramble to let out additions water whenever they can.  Everyone wants the spillway open earlier, or maximum flows year round like they did theoughout the summer to occur at other times of the year but it's just not possible without negatively impacting others far worse than the negative impacts we are experiencing here.  You cant just let everything loose in march when half the river is still ice covered down below or when flows on the Ottawa are at peak levels.  The impact down there is far greater than people realize.  Water levels can and do rise 10+ feet and if we were to increase flows as the ice let's loose the ice jam flooding could be catastrophic to those areas.  People keep complaining we didnt do enough all summer but none of them actually have spent anytime fishing below the dam and seen that water levels have actually been way up over where they traditionally have been for 3 solid years.
 
  Basically it all comes down to one thing.  When every single great lake and water shed in the north east is at record water levels we are foolish to believe that lake ontario should not be at record levels.  It's like believing ur neighbor to the north got a foot of snow, the one to the south got a foot of snow but you should be able to see ur grass still. It just doesnt work that way.  If everything both above and below is higher than ever, guess what, so are we.  What can we do at this point?  Pray for a dry spring and a little reprieve from mother nature and keep in mind it's not just lake ontario fighting this battle and we arent even the ones being effected the most by the situation.  Id love to be able to jump on the boat with everyone else and impulsively blame the IJC and plan 2014 but when I sat down and read everything and then took the time to analyze all the available data and compare it to the years past it really is the only logical conclusion.  The implementation of plan 2014 in 2017 and the fact that in coincided with record lake levels is nothing more than coincidence.

I appreciate the response, but you would have to admit, I would hope at least, that if flows are not at max now, trying to get levels to safer limits this time of year, fully knowing current levels, a failure in the process is more likely to occur especially if all of your eggs are in mother nature’s basket. To me that risk should not be weighed against landowners to take the fall for the failure. Like I said previously, I don’t have skin in this game directly so I’m not the the least an expert, but common sense seems to be lacking if were to treat this as a normal operation that has failed and possibly will fail again with our only excuse at this point is Mother Nature? I can’t seem to recall a disaster that has occurred year after year in such a wide spread impact to the same Individuals due to weather. Just trying to be open minded about it.


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[iiwhistlerii]

The example of an event caused my mother nature is right there in front of us. All of the great lakes are dealing with this, some worse!. What better example do we need as proof that mother nature is causing it?

Also again, flows are currently at safe maximums until ice forms and solidifies. Ice up below cornwall isnt far off. This is common practice to keep water levels below the dam steady during ice formation for safety. It's nothing new and has nothing to do with plan 2014

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[GAMBLER]

They should have kept the flows higher in September and October when there was no ice.

 

 

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[jimski2]

The rivers from and to Lake St. Clair have been dredged to allow 27 foot ships to pass through. This increased the water flow from Lake Huron/Michigan to flow here faster.


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[iiwhistlerii]

These statements arent fiction.  I'm not sure why everyone feels this is a conspiracy.  None of this currently effecting shipping.  That argument doesnt even come into play in this situation.  They been dumping water as fast as safely possible since last winter.  I can attest to this as I spend much of my time fishing the area around cornwall island and lake st. Francis.  Water levels there have been kept much higher in the fall the last 3 years than they were in the previous 10.   Everything effects water levels down below, wind, rain, outflows.  It's very temperamental and water release is constantly monitored and adjusted to try and maintain a stable level and not wipe out entire islands on st. Francis or areas of montreal.  

[GAMBLER]

These statements arent fiction.  I'm not sure why everyone feels this is a conspiracy.  None of this currently effecting shipping.  That argument doesnt even come into play in this situation.  They been dumping water as fast as safely possible since last winter.  I can attest to this as I spend much of my time fishing the area around cornwall island and lake st. Francis.  Water levels there have been kept much higher in the fall the last 3 years than they were in the previous 10.   Everything effects water levels down below, wind, rain, outflows.  It's very temperamental and water release is constantly monitored and adjusted to try and maintain a stable level and not wipe out entire islands on st. Francis or areas of montreal.  

The flows were way higher in July and August. They cut back in September and October. Should have been safe in September and October. What is the reasoning for cutting back then?


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[LongLine]

yep, yep, yep...that's a great spin.  

 

Reality is that the IJC didn't increase outflows earlier in the year until they heard the NYSDEC was contemplating a major lawsuit against them for their lack of action under P-2014 in protecting the Riparian areas both above & below the Moses-Saunders from flood damage.  The posted news release is dated 3 weeks after the official filing of the lawsuit.   IMO, sounds like IJC & P-2014 backers are now saying that they're trying to protect the Riparian area up North just to be able to tell the court "see, we're doing what we can."  

 

Everyone feels sorry for the farmer who has to go out & chase the cows that escaped from his barn, up until the point they realize that he was the one who negligently left the barn door open.

 

BTW, shipping interests along the St Lawrence & in the lakes are loving it!  

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

  

[Lucky13]

"Stepping back a bit from this thread I have to admit this is the closest thing I  have seen on here in the way of a truly intellectually based argument with supportive data for each side of it. Too bad our elected officials, the IJC and other decision makers haven't done their "homework" to this extent regardless of the "correct" interpretation"

 

Les, I attended nearly all the public meetings that were held in the Rochester Area prior to implementation of 2014.  The background data collection and analysis was handled by some of the top hydrologists/ hydraulic engineers in the world.  And there were two prior iterations of 2014 that were rejected, before this plan was developed.  Even Dr. Frank Sciramamano, who was on the Board of Control and was a vigorous and outspoken critic of 2014, has stated that the water levels of the last three years were NOT caused by 2014, and in fact were lower than would have occurred without the Dam and seaway project, and that under the prior plan, identical conditions would have obtained because of the limitations on discharge caused by the Ottawa River " freshet" and the impacts of discharge on the ponded areas downstream in the river.   The Lakeshore property owners predicted damages would occur, and no one disagreed at these public meetings, occasional higher water would obtain under the plan and the "wrong" wind event could cause problems.  Derek Glance, who was the IJC commissioner appointed by President Obama, told me when I spoke to her that the additional damages were mitigated by the additional protections lakeshore landowners had received from the earlier plan, which kept the levels in the narrower range, and I protested that that was NOT going to console a person standing in their living room in ankle deep water.  At one meeting where a lakefront owner asked about compensation for damages, Don Zelazny, Great Lakes Section chief for the NYSDEC Division of Water, agreed that some mechanism for compensation needed to be identified and put in place, but that didn't occur before the plan was adopted, and the IJC did not see that as their mandate.   It is a fact that if you build on a floodplain, occasionally the flood plain will be on what you built. 

 

IMO, this is not such a problem on the Canadian side because the localities in Canada have not allowed construction so close to the shore, but tax revenue is a heavy temptation for the mini governments of our home rule state, and the courts in NYS have apparently decided that the public trust doctrine only applies to tidally influenced waters, so the public lost access to the shoreline available to residents of the upper Great Lakes, and "Lakefront property" became a big inducement for local developers, town boards and school districts.

 

I am not at all surprised that shipping and hydropower come in first and second in the operation of the Seaway, that is what it was built for to begin with.  "The seaway opened in 1959 and cost Canadian $470 million, $336.2 million of which was paid by the Canadian government(Wikipedia)." I don't think that kind of  money was spent for shoreline protection in the 50's.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Lucky13

[LongLine]

P-2014 did not cause the high precipitation.  IJC never has had control over the clouds and winds.  Just like the DPW snow plows have no control over whether snow falls from the clouds or not.  However the snow plows are made ready and loaded with sand when snow is in the forecast and hit the road as soon as it hits.  Then they come out again after the snow has stopped and push the banks back further in anticipation of the next snow fall.  

 

The high level of precipitation was predicted by the Canadian Gov't, NOAA and the Army Corps well before it's adoption in Jan 2017.  The final version of P-2014 has a table of predicted probabilities of high water in the upper lakes & shows that at less than 10%.  However if you look at the Corps graphs, which are graciously posted just a couple threads back, you can count near 40 years of the some 100 years where Superior is way up there above datum, which yields a much higher probability. (closer to 35%) 

 

If you further look at that same Army Corps graph, you can see many times where the upper lakes were way above Datum yet Ontario didn't go way above Datum in the same periods.  So in effect the level control of Ontario during those times was very effective.  For those 50 years prior to the adoption of P-2014, the graph of Ontario is much more consistent then any of the other lakes.

 

It took a couple years to design P-2014 which means they probably started in 2011-2012.  If you look at that Army graph for the years 2000 thru 2012, all the lakes were very low so those designers probably thought they were home free.  They didn't look further back; they didn't consider that geological/meteorological events were more probable than their calculations and they certainly ignored climatologists and the highly publicized movement currently referred to as climate change.

 

Yes, P-2014 was revised.  It was revised with language changes to appease opposition.  It was not changed in substance and certainly not with any thought towards the steady upward water level trends shown for 2014, 2015 & 2016 on that Army Corps graph.

 

Yes, if you build on a flood plain, you should expect to get flooded.  However for over 50 years, there was very little to worry about as the lake level was being effectively controlled, regardless of what the other lakes were doing.  Not sure that Canada has laws about building so close to the lake, but am positive the geography/geology is different. Look at the contour lines on the navigation charts.  In addition, cities like Rochester & Oswego have been here a very long time - before Lake level records were being kept.  Beach Ave, Edgemere drive, Lake Rd were also there.  Many of the houses were there prior to the 50's.

 

No, you right, in the 50's that money wasn't spent for shoreline protection, it was spent on relocating an entire town up on the Seaway.  Over 10,000 people were moved.  Also in the 50's, there was no need to spend money on shoreline protection as the Seaway water control was very effective compared to previous years and much more effective than P-2014.

 

Throughout the US and I'm sure in Canada, if you do something that negatively affects a persons property, you are liable, whether you claim you have or don't have a mandate. 

 

IMO, the IJC could have done much much more in '18 and in '19 to get that water level down, regardless of the alternative facts that P-2014 supporters present.  In one post: it's frozen; in the next: it's about to freeze.  Why not look at the Modis imagery and see that it's not frozen.  Why not listen to the weather man who just this evening said "expect more lake effect snow fall this year due to the warmth & level of Lake Ontario."

 

IMO, after the IJC loses the civil case, the board members that adopted that plan should be tried in criminal court.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[Todd in NY]

The IJC has failed miserably to earn the trust and respect of citizens and businesses affected by high water levels since 2017.

 

Water levels on Lake Ontario were so low in September 2018 that I decided to pull my boat early (mid-September) while I still had access to a usable boat launch. By April of 2019 we had near record water levels again because they didn't increase the outflow soon enough.

[jimski2]

Rainfall on the west coast here and down to Peru has resulted in damaging flood waters but the California Reservoirs are returning to full levels. We must anticipate increased rainfall in the Great Lakes Basin watershed now. The present lands we stand on now were under 2,000 feet of ice 10,000 years ago so the climate crisis happened then while no human activities were around then. Today we have to change our way of life where we live as things will not get better even with all the "greenies" efforts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[horsehunter]

Not that many years ago water levels on Lake Huron and Georgian Bay were so low that peoples docks and boathouses were many yards from the shoreline. It wasn't that many years ago scientists were predicting a coming ice age. I don't want to play poker with mother nature I wouldn't stand a chance. The farmer wants rain, the golfer wants sun, the sailor wants wind, I want a light breeze how does she decide who to please and who to disappoint. I'm just thankful for any day I can stand upright and roll with the punches.

[iiwhistlerii]

Not that many years ago water levels on Lake Huron and Georgian Bay were so low that peoples docks and boathouses were many yards from the shoreline. It wasn't that many years ago scientists were predicting a coming ice age. I don't want to play poker with mother nature I wouldn't stand a chance. The farmer wants rain, the golfer wants sun, the sailor wants wind, I want a light breeze how does she decide who to please and who to disappoint. I'm just thankful for any day I can stand upright and roll with the punches.

Exactly. It's all a cycle. We've been here before experiencing the highs and in a few years we will be griping about the lows. I just hope everyone redesigning docks and launches are keeping that in mind this time. It gets old listening to chicken little in panic mode all the time. The sky isnt falling.

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