Is there hope ?

[HB2]

The sky isn't falling but the shoreline sure is washing away and a whole lot of people are getting flooded out . 

 

And it sure is hard to run a business on the water for some . 

 

Conspiracy ? We were told this was for environmental reasons and anyone with an IQ of more than 6 1/2 knows  better . 

[iiwhistlerii]

The sky isn't falling but the shoreline sure is washing away and a whole lot of people are getting flooded out . 
 
And it sure is hard to run a business on the water for some . 
 
Conspiracy ? We were told this was for environmental reasons and anyone with an IQ of more than 6 1/2 knows  better . 

Feel free to use that logic to explain the same high water levels on every other great lake. Apparently anyone with an IQ of more than 6.5 should know environmental factors can't cause this.[emoji849] Feel free to explain that to those living along lake Erie, Superior, Huron, Michagan and St. Clair who don't have anybody to throw blame at but mother nature.

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[HB2]

Yea, but we can control it  somewhat 

 

When  they closed the gates in Dec the first year in anticipation of it passing , the problems in LO started . I watched the water come up . 

 

Suspend shipping now and open the gates to MAX . If they are serious about fixing the problem . ESPECIALLY with high water that cannot be controlled upstream . 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

11 minutes ago, HB2 said:

Yea, but we can control it  somewhat 
 
When  they closed the gates in Dec the first year in anticipation of it passing , the problems in LO started . I watched the water come up . 
 
Suspend shipping now and open the gates to MAX . If they are serious about fixing the problem . ESPECIALLY with high water that cannot be controlled upstream . 
 

Omg it has nothing to so with shipping this time of year. They need high water levels for the ships down below. Winter water levels are for safe ice formation on the river itself. They never "close the gates", normal power production allows for a natural flow through the river. Using the spillway to increase flow has to be done responsibly just as it has been for over 50 years.

When we keep putting up unreasonable solutions with faulty logic and poor understanding of the overall system we look like idiots as lake Ontario residents.  You watched the water come up just as Lake Erie watched thier water come up and residents of ever great lake watched the water come up.  It's a 300,000 mile drainage basin.  Precipitation is to blame.

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Edited December 15, 2019 by iiwhistlerii

[Frogger]

So that’s the answer, I get it now. Allow the levels to take its course, priorities on making sure shipping lanes have enough water, power plants have enough flow. Anyone else that’s in the path of this direction or in the wake of catastrophe whether it’s a cottage, land, or human life, there just going to have to realize that it was there choice to live, build etc on the shores of a potential flood plain. Nothing more will be done to protect that. It is what it is. Everyone now just go back to your flooded home and live with it. Mother Nature will determine your faith. That’s basically what’s being preached here. You can keep selling it all you want, I’m not buying it. I’d also be willing to bet you might have a different take if your porch was washed away last night from waves and your insurance wouldn’t cover it.......


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[horsehunter]

acid rain, purple loosestrife,coming ice age, killer bees, zebra mussels, quagga mussels, phragmites, global warming, commorants, giant hog weed,water levels find me something else to worry about. If you build on a flood plain guess what . You can only release so much water without flooding people downstream who also built on a flood plain.   I understand some areas of Quebec where thy are tired of  paying damages every few years are telling people they will buy their  house so they can move and creating green space if they decide to stay in future they are on their own.

Edited December 15, 2019 by horsehunter

[Todd in NY]

Time to unfollow this topic. It's as bad as listening to someone who believes that gun control will stop gun crime 

[horsehunter]

https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1952/7/1/the-doomed-lakes-lash-out

 

Interesting magazine article from 1952 for any willing to take the time

[LongLine]

iiW - OMG listen to yourself.  Of course water levels are cyclical!  Look at the Army Corps graph you posted, which supporters of P-2014 refuse to do. They show great variation,  on the high side in the last 50 years EXCEPT Ontario which shows much less variation over that same period. (except '00-'12 for all the lakes)  WHY?  Because the Seaway water control was doing a pretty good job!  It effectively got rid of the water in Ontario!

 

When the Seaway was constructed, the water control plan reduced the flood plain of Lake Ontario.  (and did it for over 50 years)  D-2014 allows that flood plain to increase as it is not getting rid of the water via higher trigger points.  The IJC could have gotten rid of the water but it didn't as outflows were not increased soon enough and not kept going long enough.  

 

Yes, they don't open the gates full from the end of Dec onward, but they should have and could have from Sept thru early Dec but they DIDN"T.  

 

Up til the 1st of the year, shipping has everything to do with it.  There's still a lot of ships out there and they have to move, which is the IJC's #1 priority.  It was proposed at the early Nov IJC meeting that shipping should be suspended for the rest of the year but was shot down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

iiW - OMG listen to yourself.  Of course water levels are cyclical!  Look at the Army Corps graph you posted, which supporters of P-2014 refuse to do. They show great variation,  on the high side in the last 50 years EXCEPT Ontario which shows much less variation over that same period. (except '00-'12 for all the lakes)  WHY?  Because the Seaway water control was doing a pretty good job!  It effectively got rid of the water in Ontario!
 
When the Seaway was constructed, the water control plan reduced the flood plain of Lake Ontario.  (and did it for over 50 years)  D-2014 allows that flood plain to increase as it is not getting rid of the water via higher trigger points.  The IJC could have gotten rid of the water but it didn't as outflows were not increased soon enough and not kept going long enough.  
 
Yes, they don't open the gates full from the end of Dec onward, but they should have and could have from Sept thru early Dec but they DIDN"T.  
 
Up til the 1st of the year, shipping has everything to do with it.  There's still a lot of ships out there and they have to move, which is the IJC's #1 priority.  It was proposed at the early Nov IJC meeting that shipping should be suspended for the rest of the year but was shot down.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Let me know where on any graphs you see all time record highs on all the great lakes above lake Ontario and an all time record high on the Ottawa (that shares much of the same weather that affects our drainage basin) at the same time... oh yea, you wont, because this set of circumstances is unprecedented. 2014 doesnt just allow for higher highs. It also allows for lower winter lows. That seems to be the part everyone wants to ignore.

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[iiwhistlerii]

Time to unfollow this topic. It's as bad as listening to someone who believes that gun control will stop gun crime 

Spot on comparison. A bunch of people ignoring facts hoping to effect regulation on fear based bs and not actual circumstance. Sad.

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[GAMBLER]

These statements arent fiction.  I'm not sure why everyone feels this is a conspiracy.  None of this currently effecting shipping.  That argument doesnt even come into play in this situation.  They been dumping water as fast as safely possible since last winter.  I can attest to this as I spend much of my time fishing the area around cornwall island and lake st. Francis.  Water levels there have been kept much higher in the fall the last 3 years than they were in the previous 10.   Everything effects water levels down below, wind, rain, outflows.  It's very temperamental and water release is constantly monitored and adjusted to try and maintain a stable level and not wipe out entire islands on st. Francis or areas of montreal.  

If it wasn’t affecting shipping, how come they didn’t keep the flows higher in September and October? There was zero flooding in Montreal!!


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[chinook35]

Spot on comparison. A bunch of people ignoring facts hoping to effect regulation on fear based bs and not actual circumstance. Sad.

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Are you a member of the IJC ?


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[iiwhistlerii]

1 hour ago, chinook35 said:

Are you a member of the IJC ?


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Lol.  Nope.  Avid fisherman who's spends about 120 days a year on the water here on the great lakes. I spend my days from lake st. Clair, Lake Erie, Georgian bay, Niagara River, lake ontario, The st Lawrence and the Ottawa.  It opens your eyes to what is really happening when you get to see it from all angles.  I spent almost 40 days below that dam this season between july and Nov.  I've spent a lot of time between massena and Montreal in the last 10 years.  Its pretty obvious to anybody who's been down there that flow is increased and water has been higher for the last 3 years.  With all that being said I live in Niagara county and I can hear the waves of lake Ontario from my back porch.  When you observe it from all angles and do the research it changes your opinion on the situation.

[chinook35]

Maybe not in the IJC. A ship’ s pilot perhaps ?  You obviously have an interest in keeping the water level at P-2014 levels. I don’t have all the graphs and charts that you present. What I do have is 70 years of experience on LO. My family  owned a camp on N Sandy Pond through the 50’s and early 60’s down the road from the Wigwam. I have been on the S Pond for over 20 years   In all those years , I can never remember water levels this high.  You can spout all the reasons that the level is good. But I suggest you don’t do it face to face with a camp owner standing in knee deep water in his bedroom  the property owners have got to band together and start a class action lawsuit against the IJC and P-2014. The threat of losing money is the only thing that will stop the Seaway and ship owners 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

Maybe not in the IJC. A ship’ s pilot perhaps ?  You obviously have an interest in keeping the water level at P-2014 levels. I don’t have all the graphs and charts that you present. What I do have is 70 years of experience on LO. My family  owned a camp on N Sandy Pond through the 50’s and early 60’s down the road from the Wigwam. I have been on the S Pond for over 20 years   In all those years , I can never remember water levels this high.  You can spout all the reasons that the level is good. But I suggest you don’t do it face to face with a camp owner standing in knee deep water in his bedroom  the property owners have got to band together and start a class action lawsuit against the IJC and P-2014. The threat of losing money is the only thing that will stop the Seaway and ship owners 
 

You cant because it's never been this high. Thus record. Same with lake Erie residents, also at record. Same with huron and michigan, same with st. Clair, same with the Ottawa. You seeing a trend here?? All at record levels. Plan 2014 isnt to fault here is my point. Natural levels would be much higher and levels with the previous practices would be exactly the same as what they are now. 2014s new parameters and practices havent even come into play yet and we are chopping off peoples heads without actually doing the research and making the comparisons that would actually assign proper blame. I dont know these people, if I had taken all this time to read what I've read and see what I've seen and thought for 1 second I could blame it on someone controlling a flood gate I would put the blame squarely where it belonged. It's just not the case.

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[LongLine]

Schumer wrote a letter to the St Lawrence Development Corp back in Nov:

www.nny360.com/news/stlawrencecounty/schumer-urges-seaway-officials-to-take-immediate-steps-to-deter/article_484682fa-5722-5b58-9380-0eb871717479.html

They promptly pushed it over to the IJC.

The Chamber of Marine Commerce in Ottawa (Bruce Burrows - representing 130 shipping interests) replied to his plea that increasing outflows would disrupt shipping.  (read the article)

 

The Develop Corp probably would lose money as for the 2019 season as they had offered a 20% discount for the 2019 season on tolls for any ships they deemed as new business and a 10% rebate for any carrier who showed "an incremental increase in freight over the past 5 years."

 

Anyone would be hard pressed to find water level data for the Ottawa and the lakes on a US Army Corps graph.  (It's bad enough when reputable data is ignored, now P-2014 supporters ignore maps too. The Ottawa is in Canada)

 

Never the less here's Canadian data for the last 15 yrs or so on the Ottawa at Pembrooke and at Grenville:  Doesn't look to me like it's changed much in either place, contrary to what has been claimed.

 

All the other reporting gauges follow the same patterns.

Tom B.

(LongLine)

[iiwhistlerii]

Tom I really wish I could ignore facts and what is going on around the rest of the great lakes as well as you can.  Ottawa broke records for flow, flood level and length of time above flood stage this year.  Multiple times actually and in ever area of the river.  Especially below the carillion dam.  Keep ignoring the things that contradict your argument tho that's fine.

[jimski2]

Cottage owners on the Cattaraugus Creek harbor on Lake Erie after several floods have installed cinder block basements under their homes there to deal with occasional flooding. They did not wait for government assistance and live with occasional flooding.

[Gator]

While I don't think that the Commission did as much as they could have to prevent this situation, I also don't believe that there's a conspiracy to keep the water high. Both sides on this argument seem to be able to garner facts that support their position. I suspect that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

You couldn't pay me enough to be on the IJC. No matter what you choose to do, if the water is high because of influx, then somebody, somewhere is going to get screwed. Upstream, downstream, Lewiston, Montreal. The shipping industry is going to protest any increase because that's their job. Their position is clear. Equating their response to any prospective increases as reflecting the IJC's position isn't really fair. While they appear to have made some mistakes, I think that they are honest mistakes in response to an unprecedented situation.

 

My heart goes out to all of those affected by this catastrophe, both upstream and downstream. Mother Nature can be a beast. 

[HB2]

To blame the IJC  for all the high water would be wrong . All the lakes above are high and we can't do anything about that . We have had high water before with not a lot of problems . 

But when this thing passed and they closed the gates , that's when the real problems started . Now the water is in LO and there isn't a safe way to get it out quickly . It might take years , IF ,IF , they are serious about it . 

 

I figure the IJC  is responsible for about a foot of the high water . The foot that is the real problem . Mother nature for the ready .

[Frogger]

I’m somewhat with you Gator regarding the flooding that someone is going to get the short end of the stick. The part that I’m struggling with as probably most is the flooding is too late, I’ve been wondering about the months prior to. I think Gambler keeps asking the question this early fall and flows but no one has answered him. I even think it was on here in late 2016 that some predicted Ontario was not at a good level but flows to release her were not at the levels until it was too late. I’d really like to chart precipitation, lake levels, against flows. You would have to admit that if I find flows not at max early on when this tsunami was on its way that someone should accountable right? Especially if they communicate too bad...... your property is not our priority? Man that’s just a tough pill for anyone to be forced to swallow. If someone had that information by the way I’d love to see it. Precipitation, by month, against actual flows by month (LO), coming in and going out, against actual lake levels by month (LO).


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[Sk8man]

I think Gator has a good perspective on the situation.

 

Part of the problem here may actually have nothing to do with the "supportive" factors mentioned. The underlying issue may have more to do with the way our brains are structured to deal with incoming information. Sound strange? Not really....this overall situation is highly complex and is from all appearances an interaction between human actions, vested interests, and Mother Nature. In our minds (as we have done for millennia) we interpret incoming information in terms of cause and effect meaning that one action or lack thereof causes or directly leads to or influences some reaction. Sometimes things don't fit this model of thinking and events may happen coincidentally or they may be independent actions or events that we try to make sense of by lumping or combining them together, when in fact they are separate or discrete events; or one event may have the "appearance" of affecting or "causing" something to happen. This situation being discussed seems to be one of those "quagmires".

 

People all over the world have settled at the edge of various bodies of water despite the logical probabilities regarding potential adverse effects coming from such positioning (flooding, hurricane activity, tsunamis, etc.) which repeat themselves over the course of time. We still continue to believe that we as humans have some high degree of control over Mother Nature - when time and time again we are presented with contrary natural events and disasters. Human action, interaction or inaction during critical periods may make the situation worse or mitigate damage and we need to try to deal with what Mother Nature hands out but we may not have all or even enough cards available to play in the situation.

 

When something disasterous happens we naturally try to understand the origin of the "causation" and ascribe "blame" to the most prominent or easily identifiable action, event, object, or person when in reality we may be dealing with complex, multi-dimensional factors some of which may be happening at the same time, preceding, or following an event, and this whole issue seems to smack of this scenario. Trying to ascribe "blame" or a single cause or even a solution to it may be "pissing in the wind". Sorry....got tired of thinking this to myself and felt compelled to let it out (and maybe I shouldn't have had the second coffee)

Edited December 16, 2019 by Sk8man

[horsehunter]

Taken from the 1952 magazine article....Lake Ontario flooding is not a new thing

 

Dr. Langford, of the University of Toronto, summed it up: "Whether or not we learn all the answers about lake-level fluctuations and erosion control our present hue and cry about high water should impress one lesson upon us: to recognize and respect the realm of the waves. When water was low for many years people came to regard that low-water mark as the permanent level of the lakes and began occupying lakeshore land that rightly belonged to the waves. Lake levels will periodically rise six feet above their lowest ebb. and storm waves can reach another six feet above that. This twelve feet above low-water mark is the realm of the waves we should never overlook. The waves may abandon it for years at a time, but sooner or later they will reclaim it again.

"Much of our present grief is not due to high water alone. We have encroached on the realm of the waves and now the waves are striking back

 

When the waters too high I cant launch or use my slip, when it's too low I risk bottoming out in the inlet and can't retrieve my boat. Like Goldielocks I want the porridge just right.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by horsehunter

[Frogger]

12 hours ago, Sk8man said:

I think Gator has a good perspective on the situation.
 
Part of the problem here may actually have nothing to do with the "supportive" factors mentioned. The underlying issue may have more to do with the way our brains are structured to deal with incoming information. Sound strange? Not really....this overall situation is highly complex and is from all appearances an interaction between human actions, vested interests, and Mother Nature. In our minds (as we have done for millennia) we interpret incoming information in terms of cause and effect meaning that one action or lack thereof causes or directly leads to or influences some reaction. Sometimes things don't fit this model of thinking and events may happen coincidentally or they may be independent actions or events that we try to make sense of by lumping or combining them together, when in fact they are separate or discrete events; or one event may have the "appearance" of affecting or "causing" something to happen. This situation being discussed seems to be one of those "quagmires".
 
People all over the world have settled at the edge of various bodies of water despite the logical probabilities regarding potential adverse effects coming from such positioning (flooding, hurricane activity, tsunamis, etc.) which repeat themselves over the course of time. We still continue to believe that we as humans have some high degree of control over Mother Nature - when time and time again we are presented with contrary natural events and disasters. Human action, interaction or inaction during critical periods may make the situation worse or mitigate damage and we need to try to deal with what Mother Nature hands out but we may not have all or even enough cards available to play in the situation.
 
When something disasterous happens we naturally try to understand the origin of the "causation" and ascribe "blame" to the most prominent or easily identifiable action, event, object, or person when in reality we may be dealing with complex, multi-dimensional factors some of which may be happening at the same time, preceding, or following an event, and this whole issue seems to smack of this scenario. Trying to ascribe "blame" or a single cause or even a solution to it may be "pissing in the wind". Sorry....got tired of thinking this to myself and felt compelled to let it out (and maybe I shouldn't have had the second coffee)

 

 

   Good take on it. It’s funny, I had a free moment and searched back in 2017 when this all started. Very interesting with comments and warnings etc from back then.


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