Is there hope ?

[Sk8man]

Yeah Mike the effects of Mother Nature alone on the lake over time even a short interval like a life time is astounding. I remember back in the mid seventies there were some homes and buildings located near cliffs between Sodus Point and Rochester where I trolled that are no longer there and I used to often frequent the Chimney Bluffs east of the Point  in the eighties and took pics over the years until recently. Places where I stood looking out at the lake are long gone now. The combination of wind and water erosion has totally changed the landscape. In the long run Mother nature and the lake will do whatever they wish despite man's efforts  but in the meantime human intervention efforts need to be well thought out in advance of implementation, adjusted along the way in light of factual data responsibly collected, and intelligently interpreted so we don't add to the adverse effects. Unfortunately, there are many vested interests that come into play and the possibility of data skewing and misinterpretation are always looming in the background of people's minds and it gives rise to "suspicions", and "conspiracies"; often because of a lack of transparency which may be "fact" or "opinion".

[Frogger]

Yep lots of changes Les. Last time I remember the lakes being closed was in 93. Almost dropped my baby on the coast guard ramp 1st time launching. Went back to Kells Marine and said give me the bunk trailer lol [emoji23]


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[LongLine]

Yes, the water is high.  The Ottawa average was 2" higher than last year.  Can we get past that now? (even though that's nothing compared to over 30" higher on Big-O)

 

Some people want to believe tabloid clippings while others prefer reputable data/measurements.  As we know which camp 2014er's are in and which I'm in, here's one of your tabloid articles from the Bay of Quinte that's kind of interesting especially what a past member of the St law' Riv' Control board says about 2014. (2014 is biased, etc....)

www.inquinte.ca/story/quinte-residents-rally-against-ijc-plan-2014

 

Here's a blurb from the USDOT submitted by the SLSDC:

www.transportation.gov/transition/slsdc-top-policy-issues

    " Since the IJC's December 2016 announcement of the approved Plan 2014, environmental groups and shipping industry representatives have expressed support for the new water regulation plan.  The only group at this point that has expressed concerns or opposition to Plan 2014 are landowners on the south shore of Lake Ontario whose homes will likely be flooded as a result of the new plan.

SUBMITTED BY:        Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation
LAST UPDATED:        January 6, 2017"

 

IJC knew there was going to be flooding and did nothing about it as their plan caused the expanded flood plain by not handling the inflow as historically would have been.

 

As has been mentioned many times before: why no answer to Gambler's question?  (obviously due to the higher trigger levels of 2014. '58 would have opened those gates wider a lot earlier.)  What is the pro-2014er answer to the question?  (They beg that question an awful lot)

 

IJC claimed they were changing the plan due to environmental concerns as pro2014r's have also claimed.  Here's their fact sheet:

https://legacyfiles.ijc.org/tinymce/uploaded/LOSLR/Plan2014FactSheet_EN.pdf

 

Yet they are now being sued by the NYSDEC for damage to the Riparian area above & below the dam and around the lake. The IJC misled a lot of people with mis-information just as the 2014er's are trying to do now in justifying their brainchild.

 

 

Someone once said that you can't convince someone that their position is flawed, even with mounds of reputable data because they emotionally own that position for whatever reason.  So with that in mind, iiW' , even though you've posted a lot of untruths, I sincerely wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, hopefully it won't be underwater.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[iiwhistlerii]

3 minutes ago, LongLine said:

Yes, the water is high.  The Ottawa average was 2" higher than last year.  Can we get past that now? (even though that's nothing compared to over 30" higher on Big-O)

 

Some people want to believe tabloid clippings while others prefer reputable data/measurements.  As we know which camp 2014er's are in and which I'm in, here's one of your tabloid articles from the Bay of Quinte that's kind of interesting especially what a past member of the St law' Riv' Control board says about 2014. (2014 is biased, etc....)

www.inquinte.ca/story/quinte-residents-rally-against-ijc-plan-2014

 

Here's a blurb from the USDOT submitted by the SLSDC:

www.transportation.gov/transition/slsdc-top-policy-issues

    " Since the IJC's December 2016 announcement of the approved Plan 2014, environmental groups and shipping industry representatives have expressed support for the new water regulation plan.  The only group at this point that has expressed concerns or opposition to Plan 2014 are landowners on the south shore of Lake Ontario whose homes will likely be flooded as a result of the new plan.

 

SUBMITTED BY:        Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation
LAST UPDATED:        January 6, 2017"

 

 

IJC knew there was going to be flooding and did nothing about it as their plan caused the expanded flood plain by not handling the inflow as historically would have been.

 

As has been mentioned many times before: why no answer to Gambler's question?  (obviously due to the higher trigger levels of 2014. '58 would have opened those gates wider a lot earlier.)  What is the pro-2014er answer to the question?  (They beg that question an awful lot)

 

IJC claimed they were changing the plan due to environmental concerns as pro2014r's have also claimed.  Here's their fact sheet:

https://legacyfiles.ijc.org/tinymce/uploaded/LOSLR/Plan2014FactSheet_EN.pdf

 

 

Yet they are now being sued by the NYSDEC for damage to the Riparian area above & below the dam and around the lake. The IJC misled a lot of people with mis-information just as the 2014er's are trying to do now in justifying their brainchild.

 

 

Someone once said that you can't convince someone that their position is flawed, even with mounds of reputable data because they emotionally own that position for whatever reason.  So with that in mind, iiW' , even though you've posted a lot of untruths, I sincerely wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, hopefully it won't be underwater.

 

Tom B.

(LongLine)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tom I'm not sure what planet you are even on anymore.  2"?  What on avg for the year?  It's a river that rapidly rises and falls.  When it's high it's high and then it drops.  Water lines on the Ottawa were 9 foot over normal in spots.  Litterally water to 2nd story roofs in spots.  Please take the time to look at images and read the news from the past 6 months before responding.  This is getting old.

[iiwhistlerii]

I love it.  The Ottawa was so high it was at risk of dam failure most of the spring and did have levy failures in multiple places and somehow you manage to dumb that down to 2".  Sad.  You gripe about the 30" high that we were.  Well guess what, we are down to 18" over average thanks to the increased flows.  You know who's still 30+" over average?  Erie, St. Clair, Michigan and Huron.  All lakes who's water levels are left to mother nature to decide.  Crazy!!  How could natural lakes be that high from just weather!?  Good chance theyll all be higher over long term avg than ontario is again this year.

 

[horsehunter]

My minds made up don't confuse it with facts

 

 

[Todd in NY]

It just dawned on me...

 

The reason that all of the Great Lakes are higher this year is because global warming is melting the glaciers 

[Kingfisher06]

Wasn't it written into the IJC charter that they cannot be sued from the results of their actions? I think I read that somewhere. If that is true that is the primary issue at hand. The idea of private shipping interests being represented by a quasi international government entity is a major red flag. If an entity is immune from any repercussions from its actions there is no driver to ensure its actions are kept in check. Let's say weather had more to do with this like iiwhistler says-if they could be held responsible you can be dam sure they'd have all the data presented in an orderly fashion to depict no fault. You could also be dam sure they would not be lackadaisical about missing opportunities to increase flows when needed. What we have is a bureaucracy that has zero incentive to be proactive and shipping corps shielded from fault. Whether its weather or man-made doesn't matter as much as the fact there is zero culpability.      

[iiwhistlerii]

18 minutes ago, Todd in NY said:

It just dawned on me...

 

The reason that all of the Great Lakes are higher this year is because global warming is melting the glaciers 

Or because it rained.  Feel free to explain why Erie, Huron, Michigan Superior and St. Clair are higher for any other reason.

[Todd in NY]

Yep, it rained, and the IJC had absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

Give us all a break and sell it to members on another forum. We're not buying it here.

[iiwhistlerii]

17 minutes ago, Todd in NY said:

Yep, it rained, and the IJC had absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

Give us all a break and sell it to members on another forum. We're not buying it here.

You actually believe that slowing the flow in the st Lawrence and lake Ontarios water level has any impact on the water levels on the other great lakes?  What do u think they are slowing down Niagara falls?  Is this actually what u believe?  Please take the time to research how the system works before replying again.  That's embarrassing.  

[iiwhistlerii]

Over and over I get the impression that more than 1 person here believes the IJC is somehow "backing up" the whole system.   If this is what you actually believe it's time for you to seriously take the time to read about how water passes through the great lakes system.  This is like having to explain to a college kid how babies are made.  It's not a stork dropping the little bundle of joy on your porch I can tell u that.

[Sk8man]

How disapointing. Here all my life I have believed what my parents told me about the storks dropping the babies off. I did ask them once "Where did the storks get the babies?" though and they had a puzzled look on their faces

Edited December 17, 2019 by Sk8man

[chinook35]

Over and over I get the impression that more than 1 person here believes the IJC is somehow "backing up" the whole system.   If this is what you actually believe it's time for you to seriously take the time to read about how water passes through the great lakes system.  This is like having to explain to a college kid how babies are made.  It's not a stork dropping the little bundle of joy on your porch I can tell u that.

Try being a little less condescending and act like you care that Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence are way above flood stage and that millions of dollars in property damage have occurred since this BS plan 2014 went into effect. The St Lawrence river drains ALL of the great lakes By holding back water when it should be discharged does not make room for water flowing downstream from the upper lakes. The St Lawrence seaway council is using the GL’s as a huge reservoir. I stand by my previous statement. There is MUCH more going on behind the scenes than we can ever hope to know. Money talks and the rest doesn’t matter


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[HB2]

They screwed up when they passed 2014 . They took a gamble that the lake would not go as high as it did. And it started to rain like cats and dogs the minute they closed the gates all over the great lakes watershed ,  and it turned around and bit them on the ass . THATS CALLED KARMA . 

 

The simple question is , as soon as it was safe downstream ,and the minute the Ottawa river receded  , are they releasing the absolute max out ? 

 

FULL well knowing that we are 18" above normal , and above us is at record highs , if they are and have been at max release , thanks for trying . If not then they are playing us like fools .  

 

 

[Legacy]

Wasn't it written into the IJC charter that they cannot be sued from the results of their actions? I think I read that somewhere. If that is true that is the primary issue at hand. The idea of private shipping interests being represented by a quasi international government entity is a major red flag. If an entity is immune from any repercussions from its actions there is no driver to ensure its actions are kept in check. Let's say weather had more to do with this like iiwhistler says-if they could be held responsible you can be dam sure they'd have all the data presented in an orderly fashion to depict no fault. You could also be dam sure they would not be lackadaisical about missing opportunities to increase flows when needed. What we have is a bureaucracy that has zero incentive to be proactive and shipping corps shielded from fault. Whether its weather or man-made doesn't matter as much as the fact there is zero culpability.      

Spot on. Liability no longer exists but it once did with the old plan in plan. Only government would establish a management plan without consequences. In corporate America or any job for that matter you would have been fired by now.
And I don't care what the "cause" is. Manage it. Do what ever is needed to get the water under control. If that means shutting down shipping. Then it needs to be done until we are back into a "safe" level again.
Maybe plan 2014 is fine but certainly not at the water levels we are dealing with. In three years under the new plan it has done nothing but create chaos for the people at the benefit power and shipping.

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[iiwhistlerii]

6 minutes ago, HB2 said:

They screwed up when they passed 2014 . They took a gamble that the lake would not go as high as it did. And it started to rain like cats and dogs the minute they closed the gates all over the great lakes watershed ,  and it turned around and bit them on the ass . THATS CALLED KARMA . 

 

The simple question is , as soon as it was safe downstream ,and the minute the Ottawa river receded  , are they releasing the absolute max out ? 

 

FULL well knowing that we are 18" above normal , and above us is at record highs , if they are and have been at max release , thanks for trying . If not then they are playing us like fools .  

 

 

I keep reading this "closed the gates".  No changes in outflows were made when 2014 took effect in jan 2017.  In fact he exact same outflows would have been used under the previous management plan.  No "gates" were ever closed.  Hell no changes were even made.  Just the name on the door.  1 normal spring and the end of this cyclic event and all will be fine.  Like I said before I just hope everyone was smart enough to build the new docks as floaters so ur not jumping down into the boat during the next dry spring and low water cycle.

[Todd in NY]

23 hours ago, iiwhistlerii said:

You actually believe that slowing the flow in the st Lawrence and lake Ontarios water level has any impact on the water levels on the other great lakes?  What do u think they are slowing down Niagara falls?  Is this actually what u believe?  Please take the time to research how the system works before replying again.  That's embarrassing.  

 

How in the world did you ever translate what I said into what you think I said?

 

You should be embarrassed of yourself for putting your own words into my own words. You must think awful highly of yourself, which is a shame.

 

If you think that every gallon of water from Lake Superior makes the long journey to Lake Ontario, you are drinking some good koolaid.

 

The IJC controls the outflow of Lake Ontario, and has failed to properly control the outflow of LAKE ONTARIO on countless occasions since 2017.

 

You are among the minority here, who believes in a miserably failed plan 2014. You also need an English translator because you keep twisting other's words into your own translation.

 

You wouldn't use your arrogant attitude with me in person, so DON'T use it on a forum like some armchair tough guy!!! Check yourself and your attitude, or check out of here!

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Todd in NY

[iiwhistlerii]

 
How in the world did you ever translate what I said into what you think I said?
 
You should be embarrassed of yourself for putting your own words into my own words. You must think awful highly of yourself, which is a shame.
 
If you think that every gallon of water from Lake Superior makes the long journey to Lake Ontario, you are drinking some good koolaid.
 
The IJC controls the outflow of Lake Ontario, and has failed to properly control the outflow of LAKE ONTARIO on countless occasions since 2017.
 
You are among the minority here, who believes in a miserably failed plan 2014. You also need an English translator because you keep twisting other's words into your own translation.
 
You wouldn't use your arrogant attitude with me in person, so DON'T use it on a forum like some armchair tough guy!!! Check yourself and your attitude, our check out of here!
 
 

Todd apparently we havent met. My name is John Pensyl. I live in Niagara county and am an avid fisherman. If you think for 1 second I'm any different in person you may want to ask those who know me. I'm very opinionated because I'm very well read and take the ample time to research. Do I support 2014? I'm not sure if I do because it hasnt had a chance to really take effect yet. Do I blame 2014 for current water levels on lake Ontario? No, because my personal research and comparisons led me to the conclusion that we'd be right here under the previous management plan. Happy to civilly discuss this face to face at any point in time as I have at many docks and fishing trips for the past 2 years.

-John Pensyl

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[Todd in NY]

Thanks John, my name is Todd Bailey from Jefferson County.

 

As others have already stated, plan 2014 has not caused all of the flooding on Lake Ontario. We have seen a lot of rain and snow melt across the region.

 

Most of us are simply stating that under plan 2014, the IJC has been slow at times to increase the outflow on the SL River, to maximum safe levels for those downstream.

 

We are all hoping that plan 2014 can better regulate the water levels on Lake Ontario and down river. But we haven't seen anything promising from the IJC in the past 3 years.

[Gill-T]

My name is Chad and I enjoy long walks in the woods. 

[Todd in NY]

6 hours ago, Gill-T said:

My name is Chad and I enjoy long walks in the woods. 

 

Not me, long walks hurt my feet

[jimski2]

10,000 years ago, the ice age, had ice 2,000 foot deep over the Great Lakes area. There was no human activity then but the ice melted. The oceans rose thirty foot since then and are still rising still. The oceans are now getting warmer with less glaciers melting and evaporation is increasing resulting in greater rainfall here. Expect this to be the new normal situation so deal with it.

[GAMBLER]

21 hours ago, HB2 said:

 

 

The simple question is , as soon as it was safe downstream ,and the minute the Ottawa river receded  , are they releasing the absolute max out ? 

 

 

 

 

No.  In 2017, when people started demanding they let out more water, their response was we are following the 2014 plan.  I wish I saved the LORA newsletters that my wife's boss sends out.  He is the head of Lake Ontario Repairian Alliance.  Also if that was the case, they would have not cut back flows this fall.  They could have left the flows higher to get the lake down but they cut back.  Once it got cold enough for ice, they could have ramped down to manage the ice. 

[Frogger]

10,000 years ago, the ice age, had ice 2,000 foot deep over the Great Lakes area. There was no human activity then but the ice melted. The oceans rose thirty foot since then and are still rising still. The oceans are now getting warmer with less glaciers melting and evaporation is increasing resulting in greater rainfall here. Expect this to be the new normal situation so deal with it.

There is that way to look at...... then again, if you were told crime rates, taxes, and unemployment are going to go up.... deal with it..... would you sit back and let it run its course? Or is it the thinking there’s no man made control of lake levels......some how we have to get on the same page.


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