Water levels on LO - 4/5

[Beards247]

It looks like the IJC releases updated water data on Friday's.

 

Since the St.Lawrence outflow was cut to 260,600 on March 20th, LO water level is going up on average .03 inches per day (.083 = 1 inch), with a couple rain events added, in 2 weeks LO has added almost 5 inches, but still over 1/2 a foot lower than average for this week.

 

So from the low on March 20, I guesstimate LO will add at least 1 foot by April 19th and 2 feet by May 20th which will put LO in-line with seasonal average water levels. Which still seems low to me, but the previous 3 years were 2-3 feet above average water levels so I think my perspective is off.

 

* Guesstimate assumes St. Lawrence outflow, Lake Erie inflow and tributary/rain do not change. Actual numbers will account for any changes.

 

I'll aim to update this weekly on Saturday updated numbers (grey shaded is guesstimate)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HJfG1WgxjrmZQ7HSjEdZxiaEUThlU02Spb9JzMFSM3c/edit#gid=0

 

 

[mudflat]

Only problem with your guesstimate is that on 4/3 they increased the outflow to 281,800 cubic feet/min.

This is the maximum flow rate allowed:

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/outflow-changes

The 2021 Seaway navigation season is open as of 22 March. For the coming week, the average Lake Ontario outflow is expected to be 7980 m³/s, which is the Plan 2014 maximum “L-Limit” that applies at the current level of Lake Ontario (74.56 m).  Plan 2014’s “L-Limit” flow is the maximum flow that can be released while maintaining adequate levels and safe velocities for navigation in the International (Upper) Section of the St. Lawrence River. 

 

I always try to give them the benefit of the doubt but I am having a hard time understanding why they would increase the flow with the current lake levels being so low and no major precipitation in the forecast?????

Edited April 5, 2021 by mudflat
added link

[lost a lure]

Flow was increased to 7380 on April 4. Inflow appeared to stay the same at 10,010.

[Beards247]

28 minutes ago, mudflat said:

Only problem with your guesstimate is that on 4/3 they increased the outflow to 281,800 cubic feet/min.

 

The surest way to be proven wrong on the internet is to claim you are right, LOL. Of course Erie Inflows, trib/rain, and St.Lawrence will change that guess. So each week I'll plug in the actual numbers from the previous week and re-guesstimate.

 

These are the sites I use, gives data of the past week (updating on Thurs or Fri). Thanks for posting yours.

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/water-levels

https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/flows

 

I wish they'd release explanations for each outflow increase/decrease - I want to believe they are smart engineers/scientists, but increasing the St. Law outflow now seems really stupid.

 

 

[lost a lure]

There's more to it than the level of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The level at Montreal and Ottawa River outflow play a big role.

[maisie]

following

[mudflat]

IJC lowered the outflow yesterday

Let's hope that with this decrease and some rain the lake levels start coming up again

 

 

Lake Ontario Outflow Changes

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DATE	HOUR/	FROM/DE		TO/À
(YYYY-MM-DD)	HEURE	(m3/s)	(ft3/s)	(m3/s)	(ft3/s)
2021-04-10	0001	7,980	281,800	7,420	262,000
2021-04-03	0001	7,380	260,600	7,980	281,800
2021-03-20	0001	8,000	282,500	7,380	260,600
2021-03-13	0001	8,080	285,300	8,000	282,500
2021-03-06	0001	8,140	287,500	8,080	285,300
2021-03-01	0001	8,600	303,700	8,140	287,500
2021-02-21	1501	8,400	296,600	8,600	303,700
2021-02-20	1201	8,000	282,500	8,400	296,600
2021-02-19	1201	7,600	268,400	8,000	282,500
2021-02-18	1801	7,400	261,300	7,600	268,400
2021-02-18	0701	7,000	247,200	7,400	261,300
2021-02-17	1101	6,600	233,100	7,000	247,200
2021-02-16	1401	7,000	247,200	6,600	233,100
2021-02-12	1401	7,400	261,300	7,000	247,200
2021-02-11	1601	8,300	293,100	7,400	261,300
2021-02-10	1901	8,500	300,200	8,300	293,100
2021-02-09	2001	8,800	310,800	8,500	300,200
2021-02-05	1801	8,200	289,600	8,800	310,800
2021-02-04	1201	7,700	271,900	8,200	289,600
2021-02-03	1401	7,100	250,700	7,700	271,900
2021-02-01	1501	6,900	243,700	7,100	250,700
2021-01-31	1801	7,200	254,300	6,900	243,700
2021-01-28	1601	7,700	271,900	7,200	254,300
2021-01-26	1001	7,200	254,300	7,700	271,900
2021-01-24	1701	8,400	296,600	7,200	254,300
2021-01-23	1701	9,200	324,900	8,400	296,600
2021-01-19	1501	9,400	332,000	9,200	324,900
2021-01-16	1701	9,200	324,900	9,400	332,000
2021-01-14	1201	9,500	335,500	9,200	324,900
2021-01-12	1201	9,400	332,000	9,500	335,500
2021-01-09	1501	9,300	328,400	9,400	332,000
2021-01-07	1301	9,200	324,900	9,300	328,400
2021-01-05	1001	9,400	332,000	9,200	324,900
2021-01-04	1701	9,500	335,500	9,400	332,000
2021-01-03	1301	9,400	332,000	9,500	335,500
2021-01-01	0801	8,090	285,700	9,400	332,000
2020-12-26	0001	8,110	286,400	8,090	285,700

[Beards247]

Thanks for posting @mudflat

 

Updated the spreadsheet just to say I did - a little pointless since there was virtually no increase in water level. Howling at the moon - but I'd love to see an explanation of changes. And, the average outflow for this time of year is 240k - why are we 260K or higher? We should be average or below.

 

If the pattern holds from previous, the reduction in flow on 4/10 should add about 2.5 inches in a week. They post new numbers on Thurs or Friday so we'll see. Hopefully the rain this week is heavy enough to add some too. Today's rain in Syracuse was only  a soaking rain, no real run-off.

 

 

 

 

 

[Beards247]

Updated the spreadsheet with this weeks numbers.

 

We gained .07 or almost an inch this week, 8 inches since March 20th the first time they cut the outflow.